Warlords stake their future on anarchy


	February 21, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Warlords stake their future on anarchy
By Syed Saleem Shahazad

KARACHI - A new game has begun in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran meddling to sideline the pro-Zahir Shah elements who are emerging as the leading political force in the country.

Former Afghan premier and Pashtun warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Tajik General Qasim Fahim will be the key characters in this new game.

According to informed sources, the Minister of Defense in the present interim administration in Afghanistan, Fahim, and Hekmatyar's fundamentalist Hizb-i-Islami (Islamic Party) have agreed in principle to join hands to oppose the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan and to establish an alliance against the increasingly powerful factions that support former monarch Shah.

Soon after Tehran closed down the Hizb-i-Islami offices in Iran, Hekmatyar, who had been living in exile in Iran, sent a delegation to Kabul, headed by former Afghan deputy premier Qutubuddin Hilal. Delegation members met interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai and offered their cooperation if Karzai's government announced a date for the expulsion of foreign troops from Afghan soil and the enforcement of an Islamic system of government. Karzai agreed to both terms, but linked them to a condition of peace in Afghanistan.

The members also met Fahim and repeated their demands, which, sources said, Fahim accepted, and he asked the Hizb-i-Islami to help in undermining the Shah's support centers.

According to sources, these developments indicate that re-newed infighting is in the offing as tension between pro-United States and anti-US forces grows in the two-month-old government.

There are about 4,500 foreign troops, led by 1,800 British soldiers, in Kabul to help maintain order in the capital. US troops have not been part of the security force. They continue to focus on the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the remnants of the Taliban across Afghanistan.

It is believed that in the past few weeks Russian-backed Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani, the Tajik leader of the Northern Alliance who was left in the cold in the establishment of the present interim government, has put his name forward as the de facto ruler of the country. The former Afghan president (1992-96) holds a meeting every day in a Kabul hotel for senior Northern Alliance officials who are a part of the government. In these meetings it is said that Rabbani dictates the policies that the officials should adopt in running the government. At the same time, Rabbani meets influential members of Afghan society to push his agenda for the country. Naturally, this situation is not tolerable to pro-Shah elements and Karzai and his fellow cabinet members.

Sources say that the attack on international peacekeepers in Kabul on Saturday, the first such incident since their mission began a month ago, was carried out by Fahim forces. Dr Abdul Rehman, the recently slain Afghan minister of transport and tourism, who was allegedly killed by pilgrims infuriated by delays in going on their annual haj to Saudi Arabia, was in fact the target of Fahim's forces as he had recently joined the pro-Zahir Shah camp.

It is also said that a recent attack on Kandahar airport was carried out by Hizb-i-Islami forces, who are gaining strength with every passing day in the southern city.

Pro-Northern Alliance commanders have already ousted the pro-Zahir Shah governor from Khost, and despite US planes bombing the city they are insistent that they will not accept him.

In Mazar-i-Sharif in the north, forces of pro-US warlord Abdurrashid Dostum and pro-Russian Fahim have clashed, with many deaths. Despite reconciliatory efforts, the fighting is expected to continue.

As has happened in the past in Afghanistan, the warlords, in the post-Taliban era, have not been able to garner support beyond their limited spheres of influence and thus are unable to claim any significant political following among the masses.

Rabbani and Hekmatyar lead the two largest militant groups, but even their support has shrunk in Tajik and Pashtun-dominated areas respectively. Indeed, Hekmatyar has never been able to command respect among all Pashtun tribes. Similarly, Rabbani has never ruled over the Hazara and Uzbek minorities.

As a result, supporters of the Shah have taken over the major provinces, including Nangarhar and Kandahar. Only Khost has not accepted a pro-Shah governor. And in the western city of Herat, pro-Shah tribes are an ongoing source of trouble to legendary commander Ismail Khan.

It is clear that those political figures who can influence Afghan tribes at the grass-roots level will emerge as the strongest forces, and to date only Zahir Shah has been able to do this.

At the Bonn conference last year at which the composition of the present interim government was decided, it was agreed that the transitional authority would manage Afghanistan until a Loya Jirga (grand assembly of Afghan tribes) was convened within 18 months.

However, according to sources, all of the parties present at Bonn, as well as the US, feel that the Loya Jirga should be held as soon as possible, and that the contentious issue of the disarmament of Afghans should also be addressed as soon as possible.

Shah, who is at present in exile in Rome, where he fled after being ousted in 1973, is scheduled to visit Kabul in March, ostensibly to coincide with Nouroze (the Persian new year).

The former monarch still has a strong following among the general populace and also among the tribes, and, unlike others, he was able to maintain some form of stability in the country during his 26 years on the throne. He was particularly attuned to regulating the tribes and he knew precisely what role the different religious persuasions played in Afghan society. Further, he commands great respect among Kabulis and Tajiks.

As an astute monarch, he maintained good relations with the former USSR, the US, India and to some extent with Pakistan. His diplomatic corps included the likes of Hidayat Amin Arsala (present minister of finance) and Karzai, both of whom are close to the US.

Against this backdrop, the emerging alliance between Hekmatyar and Fahim threatens to again drag Afghanistan into anarchy, which is the only environment in which the warlords can survive.

((c)2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)