Central Asian nations choose their sides


	January 19, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Central Asian nations choose their sides
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Following the Kremlin's initial broad support of the US military action if Afghanistan, Russian officials are becoming somewhat wary about America's increasing influence in Central Asia.

Russia will not accept deployment of the US military on Tajik territory, warned the head of the Russian Federal Border-Guard Service, General Konstantin Totsky. The US military presence in Central Asia is possible only in the course of anti-terrorist operation by the coalition forces in Afghanistan, Totsky stated during his visit to Tajik capital Dushanbe. If the US forces remain here for a longer time then "we are unlikely to remain friends", Totsky emphasized.

Totsky said that he cannot rule out a massive infiltration into Central Asia by remaining Taliban fighters in Afghanistan. Although the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan is nearing completion, most Taliban militants remain at large and their movements require monitoring, he said. In the event of any deterioration of the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border, Russia could send more troops to the area, Totsky said, pointing out that during last year's American-led action against the Taliban some 800 extra Russian troops were dispatched towards the border.

Totsky also said that during his meeting with Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov he asked for improved conditions for Russian military cargo planes, which use the Dushanbe airport.

It is far from certain whether Totsky's statements represent yet another shift in Russia's Central Asian policy. However, the locale for these statements is hardly coincidental, as Russia's influence is strong in Tajikistan. The only country in the region where Russia still maintains a military presence is Tajikistan, an impoverished nation emerging from a five-year civil war between a pro-Moscow secular government and an Islamic opposition. The country's roughly 1,200-kilometer border with Afghanistan is guarded by 10,000 Russian troops, with 15,000 more based inside Tajikistan as the 201st Division.

Tajikistan, which covers 140,000 square kilometers (56,000 square miles), borders China to the East, Kyrgyzstan to the North, Uzbekistan to the West and Afghanistan on its southern frontier. About 6 million people are living in Tajikistan: two-thirds are ethnic Tajik and about a quarter are Uzbek, with other groups making up the rest. Russians, who numbered roughly half a million a decade ago, fled the country in masses during the civil war.

Rakhmonov, who came to power amid the bitter civil strife of 1992-93, is seen as Moscow's protege. Rakhmonov's opponents argue that the Tajik leader remains in power mainly due to Russian support.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have mutely indicated that they could accept a long-term US military presence on their soil. Although Russian officials refrained from comment, it is understood that the Kremlin is far from happy with these developments. Moreover, Russia delayed signing an agreement on "military-technical cooperation" between Russia and Kyrgyzstan, which was due to be inked on January 17. Russian official news agency RIA said that the deal was postponed due "to changes in the schedule of the Russian delegation".

The group of Russian officials headed by Vladimir Paleschuk, deputy head of Russian State Committee on military-technical cooperation with foreign countries, has been touring Kyrgyzstan since earlier this week. They visited a number of Kyrgyz defense industry outlets, notably AO Dastan and SP Ozero, in order to discuss possible joint production of military hardware. The Russian officials refrained from comments on the reasons for the delay of the deal with Kyrgyzstan.

Other Russian officials opted to cite Moscow's "traditional" ties with so-called rough states. Notorious nationalist politician and deputy speaker of the State Duma, the Lower House of the Russian parliament, Vladimir Zhirnovsky, warned against any anti-terrorist action in Iraq. When visiting Baghdad, Zhirnovsky stated that the US anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan should not be repeated in Iraq. "Russia allowed the US military presence in Central Asia and the US should bear in mind Russian interests in Iraq," Zhirnovsky said.

Yuri Shafranik, head of the Russian Solidarity with Iraq Committee, put it more bluntly, stating that "Iraq is an area of Russian interests" and that international sanctions against Iraq should be lifted. Some Russian major oil companies have interests in Iraq, while Shafranik happens to be former Russian oil minister.

Incidentally, on January 16 the Federation Council, the Upper House of the Russian parliament, ratified a major accord with China by 147 votes, with just one abstention. The Treaty of Good Neighborly Relations, Friendship and Cooperation was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin in the Kremlin on July 16. The accord, valid until 2021 and then subject to automatic prolongation, is the first such concord since a 1949 pact between China and the Soviet Union, when Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong announced a Soviet-Chinese alliance. The accord specifically states that the two nations are not forming a military alliance and that bilateral "military-technical cooperation is not directed against third countries". The timing of the ratification seems indicative, as Russian arguably wants to come up with a more pro-active Asian policy.

Meanwhile, Ukraine, the second largest post-Soviet state, appears keener to contribute to international peace-keeping efforts in Afghanistan, with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Anatoly Zlenko offering to help to landmine-clearing operations in Afghanistan.

With even Russia's post-Soviet partners showing their allegiance to the American cause, Moscow is becoming increasingly isolated in its stance against the US military presence in Central Asia.

((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)