Afghanistan enters new phase of warfare


	January 8, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Afghanistan enters new phase of warfare
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The United States and its opponents are preparing for a new phase of combat in Afghanistan, with information suggesting that after March a renewed anti-US struggle is likely to begin in the country.

The movement will not be led by Al-Qaeda or the Taliban, but will be a combination of various Afghan factions inside and outside of Afghanistan, and even including some elements of the Northern Alliance.

And informed sources have revealed to Asia Times Online that this new movement wants to solicit the either direct or indirect support of Iran, which has serious reservations over the US presence in the region.

The new year in Afghanistan began with victory for the United States in terms of furthering its interests over those of regional powers such as Iran, Pakistan and Russia. The US has been able to have its chosen leaders installed in Kabul to run the six-month interim administration.

However, despite this success and the complete rout of the Taliban, sources in Afghanistan believe that the real war is yet to begin in the battlefields of the shattered country.

The sources say that the detention of the former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salem Zaeef, by the US in Afghanistan following his expulsion from Pakistan and the continued US bombing in eastern Afghanistan are the preface to the new phase of war on terrorism.

US planes are bombing places such as Jalalabad, where the anti-Taliban Eastern Alliance (Shura-i-Sharqi) is in control, and they have just completed operations in the Tora Bora mountains, long after Al-Qaeda forces left.

Similarly, in the eastern regions, the US is bombing the provinces of Paktia, Khost and Nangarhar even though the Taliban retreated weeks ago. These regions are under the control of commanders who used to associate with the Ittehad-i-Islami led by Professor Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf, the Hizb-i-Islami of Gulbaddin Hikmatyar and the Jamiat-i-Islami of Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani.

Although these commanders fought against the former Soviet Union under these banners, even during the rule of different jihadi leaders in Kabul in the early 1990s they maintained their own rule and established their own fiefdoms to ensure that the remained free from the central command.

These commanders are now back at it again, and the US is well aware that they are a key power bloc in Afghanistan. The US is also concerned that Pakistan has released drug baron Ayub Afridi from prison as he has the capability to bind these commanders in the interests of reviving opium cultivation and the drugs trade, which was banned during Taliban rule.

At the heart of the problem is the issue of disarmament of all factions before general elections in Afghanistan once the interim government finishes its term. The warlords clearly will not want to disarm, and many of them feel that they will be excluded from any future political set-up even if they wanted to participate.

The Hizb-i-Islami of Gulbaddin Hikmatyar and the remnants of the Taliban movement led by Mullah Mohammed Omar will definitely not be given any political mileage and these two elements have already agreed in principle to wage a guerrilla war against US and allied forces as long as they remain in the country.

The hard-line Gulbaddin is still in exile in Iran, where he is expected to seek some assistance, and he still commands great respect in the Afghan refugee camps in Peshawar and Quetta in Pakistan.

Sources say that Mullah Zaeef's detention is directly linked to these developments. Up to his expulsion from Pakistan, Zaeef had been in contact with many central Taliban figures, such as Abdul Wakeel Mutawakil, Tayyab Aga and even Mullah Omar, to forge an alliance with the former forces of the Afghan resistance movement. He is believed to have met some of these leaders who are still in Pakistan.

Doctor Ghairat Bahir, who is the leader of the Hizb-i-Islami and the son-in-law of Gulbaddin, is one person with whom Zaeef has been in constant touch. Bahir and Gulbaddin also met with Waqar Aminuddin, a leader of the Ittehad-i-Islami, who lives in Peshawar. Information suggests that US intelligence officials believe that these leaders have agreed to join in a struggle in Afghanistan to oust US forces.

Sources also claim that the governor of the western city of Herat, Ismail Khan, has been convinced to take a part in such a campaign. Thus, the sources suggest that the recent US bombing in fact is targeting the sanctuaries of these tribal leaders and warlords who would play a decisive role in an anti-US campaign.

And Zaeef was picked up so that he could not do any more damage in strengthening this new network in Afghanistan.

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