Asia Times: Moscow breathes easier over Central Asia


	October 11, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Moscow breathes easier over Central Asia
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - As the Kremlin dispatched yet another security mission to Central Asia, Moscow and its former Soviet allies indicated that they may "broaden" cooperation with the West.

Russia and Central Asia are keen to oppose international terrorism, Russia's Security Council secretary Vladimir Rushailo announced in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on October 9, according to the official Russian news agency RIA.

Rushailo's visit to volatile Central Asia is the second trip in as many months. In Dushanbe, he chaired an extraordinary meeting of the Security Councils Heads of the Collective Security Treaty, also known by its Russian acronym, DKB.

The DKB includes Russia, the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as Belarus and Armenia. Five former Soviet states attended the meeting as observers.

Tajikistan has promised cooperation in the US-led anti-terror campaign, but has not gone as far as Uzbekistan, which is allowing 1,000 US troops to use its military bases.

The only country in the region where Russia still maintains a military presence is Tajikistan, an impoverished nation of some 6 million people emerging from a five-year civil war between a pro-Moscow secular government and an Islamic opposition. The country's roughly 1,200-kilometer border with Afghanistan is guarded by 10,000 Russian troops, with 15,000 more based inside Tajikistan as the 201st Division.

The border they guard is a tough zone to patrol. Tajikistan is the transit route for roughly two thirds of the heroin smuggled out of Afghanistan, the world's largest producer.

The security meeting in Dushanbe discussed "preventive measures" following the US and British air strikes against Taliban targets in Afghanistan. These measures include increased border guard security and tougher passport and visa controls in the region to deal with expected inflows of illegal migrants.

The meeting also discussed "a future peaceful settlement in Afghanistan, which should not threaten its neighbors". Former Soviet states should play "a special role" in this planned settlement.

Russia has pledged to support US military operations in Afghanistan by supplying the Afghan opposition Northern Alliance with weapons and military equipment and by opening its air space for shipment of humanitarian aid, President Vladimir Putin has said in a televised address.

Moscow would provide the anti-Taliban forces with the same weapons they used in the failed 1979-1989 Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. These include the Kalashnikovs, T-55 tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery systems - simple but reliable weapons.

Rushailo also pointed out that the DKB opposed terrorism and religious extremism, but was careful to add that "it did not oppose Islam as a religion".

Last May, the leaders of Russia, the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as Belarus and Armenia, clinched a deal to create a DKB rapid reaction force of some 1,500 men to include battalions from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Russia under a Russian commander.

On October 9, the Russian Federal Border Guard Service said in a statement that the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border remained tense due to military action in Afghanistan and drug trafficking. A Taliban assault into Tajikistan is "unlikely", Alexander Rubtsov, deputy commander of the 201st Division, was quoted as saying by RIA. However, the division is ready to support Russian border guards in case of an assault from Afghanistan, he said.

The DKB may "broaden" its cooperation with the West in pursuing the anti-terrorist operation, Rushailo was quoted as saying by RIA. This cooperation could be formalized by some special agreements with the US, Rushailo said. He stressed that the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border is under control and there is no massing of Taliban troops there.

The border also serves as a barrier against thousands of Afghan refugees, some of them armed, whom the Tajik government have refused to accept. The refugees live in a no-man's land on the islands of the Pyandzh River, which separates Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov has said that his country would not take in refugees. Dushanbe, whose government includes former Islamic opposition leaders, fears some of the refugees might be affiliated with radical Islamic groups and could bolster the warlords who still control parts of the country.

Russia is preparing to send a massive shipment of humanitarian aid to 150,000 Afghans who have fled their homes and are living in miserable conditions near the Tajikistan border. Russia may use some part of its 700,000 tons of wheat reserves in order to provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Russian official news agency RIA has reported. Russia hopes a large infusion of aid will forestall a further refugee influx.

Tajik and Russian officials fear that the refugees could try to cross into Tajikistan to seek better conditions, overwhelming the impoverished country's meager resources and sparking resentment that could undermine stability in the potentially volatile Central Asia south of Russia.

With its long border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan could provide crossing points for military incursions. However, on October 9, Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloyev announced in Dushanbe that the Tajik army is ready to repulse a possible Taliban onslaught.

Nonetheless, some Russian experts sound less optimistic. "We cannot be sure if the border between Afghanistan and former Soviet Central Asian states could be defended, notably because there are many Taliban supporters in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan," retired general Leonid Ivashov told Russian NTV television.

In the event of a Taliban attack Russia could be forced to intervene militarily due to DKB obligations, warned Ivashov, who had served until recently as head of the external relations department of Russia's Defense Ministry.

However, it is understood that an on-going attack on Afghanistan could deplete the Taliban's resources to such an extent that the movement might find itself unable to help anybody or attack any nation.

Uzbek Security Council head Mirakbar Rakhmankulov told Russian RTR television that there were no Taliban troops near the Uzbek border. Uzbekistan's border with Afghanistan is the shortest and best guarded of all. Its some 140 kilometers are reportedly fortified by 20,000 elite Uzbek troops.

However, on Tuesday, Ukraine's President Leonid Kuchma told his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov that the Ukraine was ready to "provide any aid in case of need". The Ukraine is the second largest former Soviet state as well as a major post-Soviet hub of defense industries.

Uzbekistan, a country of 23 million, witnessed an attack on Uzbek President Islam Karimov in 1999 and experienced a major raid by Muslim extremists in its Ferghana Valley last year. The Uzbek government has responded with a crackdown on nearly all practicing Muslims. In the past four years, hundreds of mosques have been closed and thousands of devout Muslims have been imprisoned.

Moreover, Uzbekistan has accused Tajikistan of housing training camps and allowing the free passage of members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or IMU, the region's largest armed extremist group. The IMU is suspected of having strong links with the Taliban, which allows it to operate through bases in Afghanistan.

Neighboring Turkmenistan is in a far less enviable position. Its 750 kilometer border with Afghanistan is virtually unguarded, hence Ashgabat has opted for neutrality in dealing with the Taliban.

Although Kazakhstan does not border Afghanistan, Kazakh authorities have heightened security measures in the capital Astana and the country's largest city Almaty, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The Central Asian states have to improve their domestic "political stability", Kazakh Security Council head Altynbek Sarsenbayev told the meeting in Dushanbe.

It is understood that both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan's anti-Muslim regimes could use the global fight against terrorism as an excuse to step up repression. Yet persecution of Muslims may further breed radicalism.

The New York based Human Rights Watch warned earlier this month that the US government's new partnership with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan should take into account these countries' poor human rights record.

However, observers also believe that the Western attacks against the Taliban might actually bring the region some stability, or at least buy it some time to solve its internal problems.

Initially, Moscow has been apprehensive about approving moves by the Central Asian former Soviet republics to let Washington use their bases and airspace. Now the Kremlin seemingly moves towards strengthening a broad anti-terrorist coalition in Central Asia.

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