July 31, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia United States weighs strikes against Iraq STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update Jul 30, 2001 Summary Sources indicate the United States is considering air strikes against Iraq after it attempted to shoot down a US spy plane. Such a mission could go beyond recent US and British strikes and would intend to deal the Iraqi military a substantial setback. A US attack would likely use retaliation as a pretext: real concerns focus on signs that Iraq's military is regaining strength. Analysis The confidence of the Iraqi regime, led by President Saddam Hussein, appears to be growing. In recent days, Iraqi forces have fired at a US E-2C surveillance plane in Kuwaiti air space and, on July 24, narrowly missed an American U-2 spy plane flying over southern Iraq. In turn, the United States appears to be planning a military operation against Iraq involving air and missile strikes, according to sources. The current political and security situation suggests a strike might aim to cripple air defenses and possibly damage Iraq's military infrastructure in order to interrupt its renewed efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. An attack would likely use retaliation as a pretext. It is unclear when it would take place. Such a limited operation, however, is unlikely to significantly shift the political equation in Iraq or remove the current regime from power. Washington instead appears to be counting on little international impact. But an air or missile campaign would allow Saddam to proclaim his country the victim of US aggression and renew his plea for an end to the enforcement of the no-fly zones. Recent events have left the United States in a relatively weak position in the Persian Gulf. Russia's veto of US-backed "smart sanctions" last month at the United Nations, combined with Washington's continuing attempts to prevent full-scale war between Israelis and Palestinians, has undercut US influence. Regional pressures are forcing Washington to step up involvement in Iraq. President George W Bush said on July 26 that Saddam is "still a menace" and vowed to "keep the pressure on Iraq". Much is not clear about a US potential mission. Answers to questions of timing and scope are not widely known; neither is whether or not British forces would participate. CNN also has reported plans for an operation. The targeting of the U-2 and E-2C is the latest in a series of Iraqi activities considered to be a clear escalation on the part of Baghdad in the 10-year standoff with the United States and Britain. Iraq recently has been upgrading its air defenses, according to intelligence sources. The range of it surface-to-air missiles has been extended by adding fuel, CBS reported on July 24. Iraq is also increasingly using new radars hard-wired to command-and- control facilities to threaten US and British aircraft patrolling the northern and southern no-fly zones. In February, the United States sent a large strike package into Iraq to neutralize the growing air defense threat but inflicted only limited damage due to a weapon malfunction, according to military officials. In the months since, Iraq's air defenses have fired more missiles and anti-aircraft artillery in the northern no-fly zone than in the entire previous year, according to Western intelligence sources. The United States last month retaliated against an anti- anti-aircraft installation, as it has done regularly for several years in the ongoing cat-and-mouse game. In the latest incidents, Iraqi forces have intensified their challenge, lighting up radars to shoot down patrol aircraft on nearly a daily basis. The Iraqis are also "bursting" their radars - firing an unguided missile by turning the radar off in time to avoid return fire, according to sources. The refinement of this tactic would be made easiest by the acquisition of better radars and tying them into the command posts. But beyond challenging the increasingly unpopular no-fly zones, Iraq has taken advantage of the passage of time and limited enforcement of UN economic sanctions to reconstitute elements of its former arsenal. A series of recent reports indicate Iraq is attempting to rebuild its program for making weapons of mass destruction, which was heavily bombarded in four days of US-UK air strikes in December 1998 after Iraq turned out UN weapons inspectors. Inspectors are not expected to return. In the meantime, the Iraqi regime has been able to reconstitute elements of its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons development programs, according to a July 25 report in Jane's Defense Weekly, which cited Western and Iraqi officials. In addition, Baghdad has recently deployed significant numbers of troops toward Kurdish enclaves in the north, The London Daily Telegraph reported on June 26. The northern no-fly zone was established in 1992 to protect the Kurdish minority from government repression. According to press reports, international flights to Iraq that restarted last year have allowed Iraq to obtain spare parts from Belarus, Ukraine and the former Yugoslavia for its estimated 500 Russian-made Hind assault helicopters, which it relies on heavily for internal security. The U-2 incident could be a convenient pretext for the United States to strike. Likely targets would include air defense facilities - including early warning radars rebuilt since strikes earlier this year - as well as WMD facilities. The Iraqi army could also be a target, as there have been reports of Iraq improving its ability to quickly transport its weakened though still-numerous ground forces around the country. The United States has at its disposal the usual forces capable of carrying out a limited military operation. According to the US Defense Department, an estimated 20,000 American personnel are in theater. This includes the USS Constellation aircraft carrier, guided-missile ships and submarines in the Persian Gulf; air bases in Turkey and Saudi Arabia; and a small army contingent in Kuwait. Land- and sea-based attack planes and cruise missiles are in place - along with supporting elements such as electronic jamming and command-and-control planes - to strike a limited but substantial blow. Washington has comparatively little to lose by launching a series of careful, pinpoint strikes now. Earlier this month, the Bush administration's UN proposal to overhaul the sanctions by lifting trade restrictions but tightening controls on military imports was defeated. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems beyond US influence. And Iraq has been free of international weapons inspectors for two-and-a-half years. The Bush administration must be careful, however, not to upset Arab nations enough to significantly impact the price of oil. According to Jane's, Iraqi opposition sources report that Baghdad has been preparing for a US military operation for some time: "Security agencies have been moved to makeshift offices in buildings in and around central Baghdad [and] many of the new locations are in commercial or residential buildings," raising the likelihood of civilian casualties. Every bomb that strikes Iraq may be another nail in the coffin of sanctions, but efforts to isolate the regime and reduce its threat to the region are effectively dead anyhow. Copyright 2001 Strategic Forecasting, LLC. _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com

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