May 18, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia Red tide rising in former Soviet states By Pavel Ivanov MOSCOW - The resurgence of communism in Moldova, followed by an international communist congress in the capital Chisinau the size of which has not been seen since the days of the late Soviet Union, are only the most visible symptoms of a growing assertiveness among a number of communist parties in almost all of the post-Soviet states. With the partial exception of Moldova, there is no discernible correlation between economic conditions and the growing popularity or self-confidence of communism. Rather, all these parties rely for their assertiveness and political impact on a variety of local factors, including: the level of national awareness (sufficiently low in Moldova to facilitate the electoral landslide of a Russified party); historically formed national perceptions of Russia and the Soviet Union; attitudes of the local post-Soviet elites toward the respective communist parties, and; the availability of tactical allies within the ruling establishments or among opposition forces. Georgia, for example, is as deeply impoverished as Moldova, but the United Communist Party of Georgia, for all its fierce rhetoric, remains hopelessly marginal. In Georgia, as in neighboring Azerbaijan, the governing elites and opposition forces alike refuse to consider any tactical alliances with communists. In these two states, communist parties are perceived as Russia's "fifth column". In Armenia, the national tradition of reliance on Russia means that the local Communist Party has neither a stigma to lose nor a distinct card to play. In Ukraine, some oligarchic groups at the core of the ruling establishment have recently made a tactical alliance with the Communist Party in order to topple reformist, distinctively pro-US Prime Minister Victor Yushchenko, and aim to reduce President Leonid Kuchma to a figurehead. That tactical alliance has a good chance of becoming a strategic one if oligarchs and communists share portfolios in the new cabinet in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. Such a turn of events in Ukraine might reverse the historic defeat, which Kuchma along with those same oligarchs helped inflict on the Communist Party in the 1999 presidential elections. Belorussia is a special case of Soviet continuity by presidential regime without a ruling communist party. The country has two rival communist parties: one, which cooperates, however uncomfortably, with the democratic opposition, and another which plays a minor role in President Alexander Lukashenko's "vertical power system". In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the communist parties have found allies among opposition forces. Kyrgyzstan has two communist parties of unequal size and influence, which are at present partially reconciled with one another on the basis of shared pro-Soviet and pro-Russian views. Local opposition groups claiming to be democratic made electoral alliances with both parties in last year's parliamentary and presidential elections, and cooperation has continued past the elections. On May Day in the capital city of Bishkek, the communists and putative democrats jointly paid homage at the monuments to Lenin and other communist heroes. It is unprecedented for non-communists to participate in such a show in a post-Soviet country. On May 4, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan urged general support of a proposal by Georgia's Communist Party for the "political rehabilitation" of Joseph Stalin. His "errors" and "omissions", notwithstanding, "Uncle Joe made invaluable contributions, as the leader of the Soviet people, to the edification of the Soviet state and its role as a great power," according to Kazakh Communist Party leader and member of the Upper House of Parliament Serikbolsyn Abdilin. Under Abdildin's leadership, the Communist Party accepted an invitation to join forces with former Kazakh prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, the wealthy oligarch who fell out with President Nursultan Nazarbayev and created an opposition political bloc. This bloc includes Kazhgeldin's own Republican Party, the Communist Party and several smaller political groups, including communist fronts and Russian nationalist organizations. The Kazakh coalition seems inactive at present, but it adds to an emerging pattern in which oligarchs whether in power, such as those in Ukraine, or in opposition, such as in Kazakhstan, find it politically rewarding to enter into close alliances with increasingly assertive communist parties throughout almost all of the vast post-Soviet geopolitical space. ((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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