Asia Times: Russia's Asian dilemma


	May 5, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Russia's Asian dilemma
By Vitalij Tret'jakov

Stretched along the entire Euro-Asian continent, Russia has always had to have two foreign policies: one for Europe and the other for Asia. A digression into the history of these two policies would be extremely interesting and telling, but for these purposes I will take them as a historical fact and tradition.

Even as a European country, most of Russia's territory is in Asia. The famous saying "A Europe from Brest to Vladivostok" is paradoxical only from the point of view of geography, not of culture. The Russians who have always or for generations lived in Asia have never seen themselves as Asian.

Furthermore, many Muslims live in Russia, as well as Buddhists: 13 percent of the Russian population is now Muslim, but at the time of the Soviet Union the percentage was higher. If religion (in this case Islam) is an indication of Asian identity, Asia starts in the European territory of Russia: in the Northern Caucasus, in Tatarija, in Bashkirija and in other regions of the Urals and of the Caspian Sea.

Leaving aside Turkey and Azerbajdzhan, whose belonging to Europe is in any case relative, Russia is not just the only "Asian" country in Europe, but also the only European country through which Europe spills into Asia and Asia into Europe.

The frontier between the two civilizations runs in Russia, and over the past few years has become increasingly conflict-ridden. Asia invades Europe through Russia's territory; it invades it biologically. And if Russia becomes weaker, the frontiers of Europe will shift immediately towards the West, on the line that runs from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.

The subject of the article is not "Europe and Asia", but this introduction is necessary. Notwithstanding its national interests in Asia, Russia, for objective and inevitable reasons, has been forced in the past - and will be in the future - to sustain the burden of being Europe's outpost in Asia, to act as a cushion between the two civilizations, and has done so reluctantly and often hampered by other Europeans.

Moving on to Russia's interests in the Asian "super-region", there are many serious concerns, some of which Russia President Vladimir Putin has made public for the first time. In the past, these issues were confined to unofficial and non-public debates.

The first problem regards the scarcely populated regions of Siberia and the Russian Far East, followed by the ongoing and spontaneous expansion of the Chinese in those areas. Thirdly, the Asian regions are isolated from the center and are economically backwards compared to the European regions of the country. The fourth problem is due to the rich natural resources of the region that makes it interesting to Russia's geopolitical competitors. The last issue is the populated and dynamic China, with which Russia shares 4,000 kilometers of borders.

Most of these issues should be addressed through Russia's internal rather than foreign policies, but any failure of the first will have to be compensated by the second.

Assuming that Russia manages to develop a more or less positive internal policy towards its Asian regions, there still are two issues that require further examination: the economic backwardness of Siberia and of Russia's Far East, and China.

It is worth underlining some of the main objectives and priorities of Russian foreign policy in the Asian sub-region, understanding foreign policy in its broad meaning and not strictly diplomatically.

1. The south (the former Soviet republics, now the southern states of the CIS): maintenance of partnerships with these states, as allies or even satellites; economic expansion towards them on the basis of the traditional ties formed during the Soviet period; opposition to Chinese and especially Turkish expansion in these countries; contrast of any Afghan-Pakistani threats.
2. The search for strategic allies in Asia-Pacific.
3. A highly active policy as one of the main diplomatic and economic players in the Asia-Pacific area, which globally is the sub-region No 1 in the 21st Century.
4. Competition - even in the form of cooperation - with the hegemony of the US and of China.
5. Preparation to face any possible negative consequences of unexpected developments in China or in its policy towards other states.
6. Exploitation of the economic and financial potential of Pacific Asia for the development of Russia's Asian regions.

How and in what ways can Russia reach success in pursuing such objectives? The answers are not obvious and would require elaborating alternative scenarios. But in this article I will limit myself to highlighting what I consider the best scenarios, leaving aside analyzing the alternatives.

First, Russia's foreign policy towards Asia, in its broadest sense, must become at least as vigorous and important as its Euro-Atlantic policy.

Second, it is necessary to recover Russia's military and maritime power in the region to reach the Soviet levels.

Third, it is necessary to establish exclusive diplomatic, economic and strategic partnership ties with Japan and India, two key countries of the region, and to include Siberia and the Russian Far East in the process. In view of the inevitable reform of the United Nations, Russia should pursue the case for enlarging the Security Council to include these countries among the permanent representatives. These countries, and Japan in particular, should be given exclusive privileges to exploit Siberia and the Russian Far East together with Russia and in exchange for investments in Russia.

Fourth, Russia should become one of the patrons of the unification process between North and South Korea.

Fifth, Russia should respond to China's economic expansion in South Siberia and in the Russian Far East by developing a strategy aiming at economic expansion in all Chinese regions, regardless of their proximity to Russia.

Sixth, the much talked about idea of building a transport corridor from Europe to Asia through Russia must be carried out (a Northern Sea route, a Trans-Siberian highway).

Seventh, Russia should have a clear position, develop initiatives and cooperate with third countries on all issues, be they with regard to the Pacific Asian region (and in Asia in general) or to the main countries of the area.

Eighth, the main Russian cities in the region, Vladivostok or Khabarovsk, must become political, cultural and financial cities comparable to Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai - they must be among the capitals of the region.

All these objectives, and the ways to pursue them, are certainly extremely ambitious. But Russia has no choice. Should it not achieve something comparable, it will cease to be an Asian power for the simple reason that it will de facto loose most of its territories beyond the Urals.

The crossroads is either a highly proactive policy in Asia or an exit from Asia. The latter option would not even solve all the problems. Even without its Asian territories, Russia will never be free of its frontiers with Asia. Here lies Russia's biggest problem and the main incentive to do something about it.

((c) Heartland. This version has been edited by Asia Times Online.)
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