Asia Times: Statue attacks expose rift in Taliban leadership


	March 10, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Statue attacks expose rift in Taliban leadership
STRATFOR.COM's
Global Intelligence Update
Mar 9, 2001

Summary

The continued intransigence on the part of Taliban officials to ignore international calls to cease destruction of ancient Buddhist statues masks deeper issues. The statues lie in a strategically important area of central Afghanistan, the site of several recent clashes between Taliban and opposition Northern Alliance forces. More directly, however, the edict to destroy the statues may also reveal an increasing rift between extreme and moderate factions within the Taliban. This could ultimately open a door for the moderate factions to advance their positions in Afghanistan.

Analysis

A UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization special envoy returns to Afghanistan this week to try to stop the Taliban, which controls over 90 percent of the country, from destroying two large Buddha statues in Bamiyan province, in central Afghanistan. After a brief pause for the Muslim holiday of Eid-al-Adha, the Taliban is expected to resume destruction of the statues to fulfill a February 27 edict by supreme leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. The edict called for the destruction of all statues and idols in Afghanistan, as they are "the gods of infidels" and all "false gods should be removed." The Taliban's decision to destroy the statues raised an international outcry of opposition to the destruction of Afghanistan's cultural heritage.

The Taliban order serves several purposes. First, it positions Taliban forces in Bamiyan in anticipation of an early spring offensive by Northern Alliance forces. Second, it reinforces Taliban control over all areas of Afghanistan. Finally, it reinforces the religious aspect of the Taliban's cause amid signs that factions within its leadership may be willing to take a more moderate course. In the long run, the action could split the group's leadership, as more moderate elements seek to capitalize on the international attention and begin negotiations with outside powers.

While deploying forces to Bamiyan to destroy statues, just ahead of the annual Northern Alliance spring offensive, would seem to make little sense, Bamiyan occupies a strategic location in central Afghanistan. Lying along the main east-west road along the central mountain range that splits Afghanistan in two, Bamiyan represents a potential chokepoint for Taliban supplies to its forces north of the mountain ranges. The region also offers refuge and a launch point for anti-Taliban forces in central Afghanistan, whereas the bulk of Northern Alliance forces are in the north and east.

The February edict is not the first time Taliban forces have threatened the Buddha statues in Bamiyan. In April 1997, a Taliban field commander, fighting the local Hezb-i-Wahdat faction of the anti-Taliban forces, announced if the Taliban overran the area, the statues would be destroyed. The threat was never fulfilled, however, as Mullah Mohammed Omar vowed they would be protected.

The Taliban finally captured Bamiyan from the Hezb-i-Wahdat in September 1998, and the area has shifted hands several times since. Opposition forces retook Bamiyan most recently in January and February of this year only to lose it again quickly to Taliban forces.

In addition to destroying Buddhist and other pre-Islamic statues, the Taliban is attacking statues of saints set up by local Islamic sects, according to the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Taliban leadership is concerned these local sects, often made up of ethnic minorities, undermine the Taliban's central control. By destroying the statues, the Taliban hopes to eliminate their separate identity and integrate them into the single Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

While the group has addressed the problems of ethnic and religious minorities in the countryside, the Taliban leadership itself may be split. The extreme fundamentalist views within the group have weakened its ability to gain international recognition and undermined chances for economic and political development. Despite some challenges by moderate elements in the group, the fundamentalists remain in control

A recent sign of a rift between the two factions can be seen in the issue of Osama bin Laden, who has remained a key stumbling block to international recognition of the Taliban. Recently, there have been several signs from Afghanistan that the Taliban may be willing to negotiate on his removal from the country. For every hint of bin Laden's possible departure, however, there are strong statements from the Taliban leadership reinforcing its overriding Islamic principles. During earlier discussions of handing over bin Laden, fighting among the group's officials reportedly broke out.

The decision to destroy the statues, despite the expected international condemnation, may have been a move by the more extremist factions to emphasize their control over the Taliban. In doing so, however, they may have opened a crack for more moderate leaders to position themselves as alternatives acceptable to the international community - at least in comparison to the extreme factions.

The Taliban ambassador in Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef, recently told a Reuter's interviewer that if the Islamic community could present a reason to spare the statues, based on Sharia law, the destruction might stop. The comment suggested that at least elements of the Taliban were willing to negotiate, even though Omar had called on the Muslim world "not to harmonize their voices with those of nonbelievers" who advocated saving the statues, according to Agence France-Presse.

Omar's extremist position, while an attempt to assert control, may backfire. The Taliban leadership's more moderate elements may exploit the interest of the international community to open backroom negotiations on international recognition for the group and eventual economic benefits. This could bolster their position within the Taliban if they can show positive economic or political gains, and could undermine the power of extremists. Ultimately, the debate over destroying the Buddhas of Bamiyan could lead to a shift in Taliban leadership.

(c) 2000, WNI, Inc.

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