Asia Times: Russia working to rebuild ties with Mongolia


	November 14, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Russia working to rebuild ties with Mongolia
STRATFOR.COM's
Global Intelligence Update
Nov 13, 2000

Summary

Russia is reestablishing its relationship with Mongolia, an isolated nation strategically located on the Russo-Chinese frontier. Both nations have reason to close ranks. Russia wants the strategic depth and Mongolia needs help with its ailing economy.

Analysis

Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to one of the most remote corners of the world when he visits Mongolia on Monday. Putin will be the first post-Soviet Russian president to visit the former satellite state. Putin and his counterpart President Natsagiyn Bagabandi will discuss a boatload of issues including economic ties, law enforcement and nuclear energy.

The economy is an extremely pressing issue for Mongolia. The country has become a fair representation of a market-based parliament democracy only a decade after the withdrawal of the Soviet presence. But Soviets made up the bulk of Mongolia's managerial and technical workers - and they left in the early 1990s. They have not been replaced. Western institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have donated millions to assist Mongolia with its economy - 20 percent of the US$1 billion gross domestic product this year - but have made little progress improving the shortage in the nation's human capital.

The economy has struggled as a result, leading frustrated Mongolians to vote the Mongolian People Revolutionary Party into power. The MPRP mainly comprises former Communist party officials. Most of the MPRP is pro-market, but candidates promised to focus on providing basic necessities rather than quibble in lofty debates over democratic theory. And most MPRP officials hold favorable views toward Moscow.

Putin's visit will revolve around reviving the strategic relationship between Mongolia and Russia. Both nations share a common strategic concerning China, Mongolia's neighbor to the south. Mongolia's relations with Russia extend back to 1924, when Soviet-backed Mongolian communists proclaimed a communist state. Mongolia became a Soviet satellite for the next seven decades. In that time, the Soviets built much of Mongolia's infrastructure and industrial base and stationed military troops on the Chinese border.

Mongolia's military is tiny and its economy is struggling, but its geography is invaluable. It acts as a buffer zone between Russia and China. A Russian military presence in Mongolia would add up to 600 miles of strategic depth, moving the de facto frontier south. This space is vital to defend the Trans-Siberian Railroad, the only significant land link between European Russia and Siberia. The railroad lies only about 250 miles north of the Mongolian border.

Yet, Mongolia's relations with China have improved significantly since the breakup of the Soviet Union. China has replaced Russia as Mongolia's principal trade partner. Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Mongolia in 1998 and Mongolian Prime Minister Rinchinnyamiin Amarjargal returned the favor in 1999. And China has offered the occasional aid package, most recently a $12 million dollar soft loan.

Mongolians continue to regard China with some suspicion, however. The reluctance to develop close relations stems from a history of conflict over China's territorial ambitions - Mongolia was a Chinese province from 1691 to 1911. Beijing is only about 700 miles from Ulaanbaatar, while Moscow is 3,600 miles away. Some Mongolians even worry about Chinese domination of the economy. Russia needs Mongolia's defensive depth, and Mongolia needs Russian economic aid - especially technical advisors and training.

Putin will use aid offers, plus the $360 million the Mongolian government owes Russia, as levers in his negotiations. Mongolia has no real reason to resist reestablishing links with Russia, but it can leverage its relationship with Western nations to extract a few concessions. At the end of the visit, however, Mongolia and Russia will have taken the steps toward resuming their relationship.

(c) 2000, WNI, Inc.

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