Asia Times: Elections to prevent chaos may bring it



	February 3, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Elections to prevent chaos, may bring it
By Liz Fuller

Speaking at a press conference in Yerevan on January 19, National Democratic Union (AZhM) Chairman Vazgen Manukian proposed that President Robert Kocharian voluntarily resign to allow new presidential elections to be held. Manukian characterized the political situation in Armenia three months after the murder of Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian and parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian as anarchy and claimed that Kocharian is no longer in control. Allowing the current situation to continue indefinitely, Manukian said, would only cause further damage to the country.

Manukian's remarks represent a shift from his earlier position. In mid-November, he had argued that new presidential and/or parliamentary elections should be held only after the political situation in Armenia has stabilized. Asked why he now advocates new elections, Manukian said that the situation "is swiftly deteriorating" and that a solution is urgently needed.

But leaders of other parties represented in parliament responded either ambivalently or negatively to Manukian's proposal. The two parties that are most closely linked with the current president - the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun), which backed his successful presidential bid in 1998 and Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law), which is reportedly partly financed by the head of Kocharian's National Security Council, former Interior and National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian - rejected the idea of holding new elections.

Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Baghdasarian said that "there are no legal or political grounds" for the president's resignation, nor is there any guarantee that a new poll would be free and fair. Both Orinats Yerkir and the ARFD made the point that measures to improve the social and economic situation in Armenia would contribute more to stabilization than would new elections.

But the majority Miasnutiun parliamentary faction, which despite both sides' repeated disclaimers is widely perceived as mistrustful of Kocharian, did not endorse Manukian's call for a new poll either. Miasnutiun faction head Andranik Markarian told RFE/RL that the president's resignation should be treated as an option only if "there are serious political grounds". The only other political party leader to advocate a pre-term presidential poll is the new Communist Party First Secretary Vladimir Darbinian, who told journalists in mid-January that such a vote would contribute to stability.

There are, however, credible explanations both for Manukian's proposal to hold new presidential elections and for other politicians' ambivalent response. Manukian may be proceeding on the assumption that if a new poll were held within the next few months, he would stand a good chance of recapturing the "protest" vote against the economic status quo. That vote had almost propelled him to the presidency in 1996, but two years later, in the 1998 presidential poll, he had forfeited it to former Armenian Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchian. By contrast, Miasnutiun would be hard put at present to field a candidate who could compete with Manukian in a fair poll. Its two charismatic leaders, Demirchian and former Premier Vazgen Sargsian, were both victims of the 27 October parliament shootings, and new Premier Aram Sargsian (Vazgen's brother) has not yet proven to be either a strong personality or a decisive and competent economic manager.

In addition, delaying the new poll would give Miasnutiun time to draft and submit to a nationwide referendum in May its planned amendments to the present constitution significantly curtailing the president's sweeping powers.

Delaying a new presidential poll until after the planned referendum could also result in significant changes in the present alignment of political forces. Veteran political commentator David Petrosian defines that alignment as follows: 1) the pro-Kocharian camp, which includes the ARFD, Orinats Yerkir, "Right and Accord", the Ramkavar-Azatakan Party, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic; 2) Prime Minister Aram Sargsian, Minister for Industrial Infrastructures Vahan Shirkhanian, the Yerkrapah Union of veterans of the Karabakh war, some senior Defense and Interior Ministry officials, and the Miasnutiun parliament faction (Communist Party leader Vladimir Darpinian recently hinted that he might align with Miasnutiun); 3) supporters of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian, including the upper echelons of the Armenian Pan National Movement and the 21st Century Party, led by Ter-Petrossian's former National Security adviser David Shahnazarian; and, 4) the army, together with Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian and Interior Minister Hayk Harutiunian.

Petrosian observes that the third group is trying to coopt the second, which he characterizes as lacking intellectual potential. He also notes that the first three groups are vying for the support of the army. If the second and third groups were to field separate presidential candidates, Vahan Shirkhanian and Karen Demirchian's son Stepan might emerge as possible candidates from the premier's entourage. On 21 January, Stepan Demirchian was elected acting chairman of the People's Party of Armenia, which his father founded.

If, however, those two groups join forces, one candidate who might prove acceptable to both is Armen Sarkisian, who served briefly as premier in 1996-1997 before resigning on health grounds and who is currently Armenian ambassador to the UK. Petrosian has suggested that the primary purpose of Prime Minister Sargsian's visit to London earlier this month was to ascertain whether Armen Sarkisian would be willing to run for the presidency.

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