|
Central Asia/Russia
PART 1: Tajikistan prepares for first poll since civil war
By Bruce Pannier
PRAGUE - Tajikistan is preparing to hold its first elections following the end of the country's five-year civil war. Presidential polls are scheduled to be held sometime before November 6.
There are those who feel that the time remaining is not sufficient to prepare for such an important election. Others believe that conducting the voting will be an important sign that stability is returning to Tajikistan.
One thing is certain: with less than five months to go, Tajikistan's Central Electoral Commission has much work to do to prepare for the polls.
The office of the presidency in Tajikistan has an interesting history. The first president of Tajikistan was Rahmon Nabiyev, the last leader of the Soviet republic of Tajikistan before it achieved its independence in late 1991. Nabiyev was forced out when the civil war began in the spring of 1992.
Several people temporarily served as head of state in Tajikistan following Nabiyev's ouster, but there was no clear leader until current President Imomali Rakhmonov came to power as chairman of the Supreme Soviet in November 1992. The position of president in Tajikistan was abolished by the Supreme Soviet shortly after.
Two years later - on November 6, 1994 - Tajikistan held presidential elections and a referendum to approve a new constitution. That constitution reinstituted the post of president. There were numerous complaints about irregularities in that election, held during the middle of the civil war. Rakhmonov's opponent, former Prime Minister Abdumalik Abdullojonov, was foremost among those who protested, pointing out that - according to the official vote count - he had even lost in his own constituency.
The civil war ended in June 1997 when President Rakhmonov signed the Tajik Peace Accord with Said Abdullo Nuri, the head of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO), largely comprised of Islamic groups.
One of the terms of the accord was that a national referendum be held on amendments to the constitution. Following that, elections to parliament would be conducted, then presidential elections.
However, Tajikistan's National Reconciliation Commission - charged with drafting amendments to the Tajik constitution - has in its nearly two years of existence proposed only one amendment. And the UTO says the constitution must first be changed before free and fair parliamentary elections can be held. The UTO has not objected to the concept of presidential elections under the current constitution, although they strongly disagree with the timing of the poll.
Hikmatullo Sadullozoda of Tajikistan's Islamic Renaissance Party - one of the groups which forms the UTO - does not believe elections should be held this year. He spoke recently with RFE/RL:
''Unfortunately, the pre-election marathon which the government has started is, in our opinion, a unilateral action because the peace agreement was concluded so the UTO could participate in the elections, so they would be legitimate. But today the parties of the opposition are banned and holding elections [now] does not bode well for us."
But Bozgul Dotkhudoyeva (eds: woman), the deputy prime minister of Tajikistan, tells RFE/RL that conditions are right for holding a presidential election this year.
''In my opinion, all the conditions - political and economic - exist for conducting elections. And if the Tajik opposition fulfills those obligations of the peace agreement for which they are responsible on time, then the elections will undoubtedly take place."
Tajikistan's representative from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Oynihol Bobonazarova, suggested to RFE/RL that the country might not be ready for elections.
''In accordance with the peace agreement, first there should be a referendum, then parliamentary elections, and then presidential elections. The government declared [presidential] elections before November 6, but how can they hold elections before legislation is passed and the people don't know anything about the laws? It is possible presidential elections will be held under the existing laws."
Tajikistan's National Movement Party is a secular political party not aligned with either Rakhmonov's government or the UTO. The chairman, Hokimshoh Muhabatov, offers a possible compromise to the problem of the order of the parliamentary and presidential elections, a plan which could bring the country's election process back on schedule:
''Maybe presidential elections will be held on the basis of the present constitution. If this is the case, Tajikistan is ready for elections and if the government and opposition cannot pass new legislation in time, the elections can be held according to the existing laws on elections. The majority of political parties are demanding to hold parliamentary elections first. There is a way out. Extend the term of the president until February or March 2000 and during that interval hold the referendum and parliamentary elections. After that, the presidential elections can be held."
At least one support group says it is ready for elections, and it credits international organizations for helping it to prepare. Gulchera Mirzoyeva is the chairwoman of Tajikistan's social organization ''Modar'', or Mother. The group seeks to increase voter awareness among women, who make up some 57 percent of the electorate.
''In my opinion, we are ready to take part in the Tajik elections. At least one year ago, with the help of international organizations, we began work to prepare women for elections, and we see the activities of women among the population."
The person who likely stands to gain the most from holding the election according to the current schedule is President Rakhmonov himself. His candidacy has been forwarded but he has not officially announced his intention to run, although it seems certain. Other candidates have yet to come forward to challenge Rakhmonov.
The UTO is the most organized political opposition in the Central Asian countries of the CIS, but its efforts are hurt by bans on some groups within the alliance dating from the civil war and by rogue elements among its former combat units.
The UTO has received high-profile posts in the cabinet but has not been given positions at the local or village level, the places in which campaigning needs to begin. This is one of the issues that has caused a serious break in contact between the UTO and government officials recently.
The government last week handed over several more federal positions to UTO members and promised to provide places in 14 towns, cities and districts of the UTO's choosing. But this agreement hinges on UTO compliance with military integration which may prove a lengthy process and the promised positions might not come before presidential elections.
Also, it is unclear how election officials who will be responsible for tallying the votes will be appointed. Some areas in Tajikistan are under the control of local warlords and are unsafe and so will be difficult to monitor.
There are well-established political parties in Tajikistan and the country's first post-war vote will likely have a large and enthusiastic turnout. But it remains to be seen whether the vote, if it takes place, will be considered free and fair. If it manages to meet that mark, it will be a very encouraging sign regarding the country's political development. It would also offer a much needed example for Tajikistan's Central Asian neighbors.
((c) 1995-1999 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
http://www.rferl.org)
PART 2: One-horse races
By Bruce Pannier
PRAGUE - Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are both scheduled to hold elections to parliament at the end of this year.
Unlike parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan or the presidential elections in Tajikistan - which will also be held at the end of 1999 - the elections in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are characterized by their lack of any serious opposition parties.
Both governments are promising free and fair elections in the democratic tradition. But with less than six months to go, none of these elements appears to be figuring into pre-election preparations.
Before taking a closer look at the races in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, it is worth noting the similarities between the governments in these two countries.
Though all of the Central Asian states of the CIS are ruled by strong presidents, this is especially true in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. But the concentration of power in the executive branches in these two countries has come at the expense of strong parliaments or significant opposition.
There is some Uzbek and Turkmen opposition activity outside the region. But opposition parties led by leaders in exile will not have any meaningful roles in the upcoming elections. In fact, most will not even be registered and won't take part in the elections.
Though few outside Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan believe truly democratic elections will be held in these two countries this year, both countries will likely make at least some effort. That's because of the considerable criticism leveled at Kazakhstan after a presidential election earlier this year.
The Kazakh election was moved forward by nearly two years. The leading opponent to the incumbent president was barred from the race not long after elections were announced. And there were numerous reports of bias by local government officials and the state media. In the end, the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) refused to recognize the results.
So, despite the ''iron hands'' both Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov rule by, both men likely feel some pressure to allow movement toward democratic standards.
In Uzbekistan, there is more than one party, but these alternative parties - the Peoples Democratic Party, the Homeland Progressive Party, the National Revival Party, the Justice and True Path Party and the Self-Sacrificers Democratic Party - are actually loyal to President Karimov.
Real political opposition parties in Uzbekistan - such as the Erk (Liberty) and Birlik parties - remain banned and their leadership has lived outside the country for several years. There are also Islamic opposition groups in Uzbekistan, but their numbers have dwindled in the last two years.
The crackdown against Islamic elements inside Uzbekistan, which began in late 1997, intensified recently following terrorist bombings in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, in February. Those bombings were blamed on Islamic extremists. No Islamic opposition group would dare to advertise its presence in Uzbekistan, let alone forward a candidate for the upcoming elections.
So far, there has been little public evidence that parliamentary elections are planned in Uzbekistan this year. Government officials mention the event in speeches from time to time, and President Karimov has pledged that the elections will be free and fair. But with less than six months to go, no candidates have come forward and no parties seem to be active in planning.
In Turkmenistan, President Niyazov is the only government official who mentions the upcoming elections. Admittedly, this may be because Niyazov is practically the only government official any journalist ever sees.
Niyazov has mentioned the December 12 elections in remarks to parliament often. Niyazov - like Karimov - promises that free and fair elections will be held. Certainly, Turkmenistan's upcoming parliamentary elections will likely be different than the country's last attempt. On December 11, 1994, 51 candidates ran for 50 seats in parliament. There is one political party in Turkmenistan - the Democratic Party - headed by Niyazov.
According to the OSCE office in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan's Central Elections Commission only became active several weeks ago. Piotr Iwaszkiewicz of the OSCE office in the Turkmen capital tells RFE/RL that proper election legislation is one of the first problems for the election commission to address.
''In our opinion, the Turkmen election law, such as it is, does not correspond to all the OSCE commitments and principles."
Iwaszkiewicz said there is no indication any alternative parties have begun the registration process.
One opposition leader who would like to take part in the December elections is former Turkmen foreign minister Avdy Kuliev. Kuliev has been in self-exile for several years and leads an opposition based in Moscow. Kuliev wrote to the OSCE's chief representative in Turkmenistan, Paul Ulman, in late April and said he and other opposition members wish to return to Turkmenistan to take part in the parliamentary elections.
Kuliev appealed to Ulman to act as a mediator for securing their safe return so they can take part in the election.
Ulman's carefully phrased response to Kuliev last month gives a hint about the current situation in Turkmenistan. Ulman wrote, ''I have raised your question with Turkmen personalities, but I got no signal that could indicate your return would be welcomed by Turkmen authorities."
Kuliev has been outspoken in his criticisms of the Turkmen government, so such a response was not unexpected.
Concerning participation by Kuliev's opposition group in elections, Ulman wrote, ''Regarding your expressed wish to participate in the upcoming election campaign, the reaction of Turkmen authorities to your return to the country could be an indicator for the degree of openness in the election process."
Two final points to keep in mind about elections in Turkmenistan:
First, Niyazov - who has the final word in all matters of state - has promised to relinquish some of his powers to parliament following the December elections. It is out of character for Niyazov to give anyone or any group significant power. This leads to speculation that the incoming parliament will not be comprised of deputies who could be expected to challenge Niyazov's decisions.
The second issue is trust. Niyazov has said he does not want foreign election observers in Turkmenistan during the elections. The Turkmen president as much as said it is insulting that anyone should feel there is a need to monitor what Niyazov himself has promised will be free and fair elections.
The OSCE's Iwaszkiewicz:
''The [Turkmen] president said at the end of April the Turkmen side will not invite international observers, but if they come they will be welcomed. So it is not very clear as you see."
In the end, the worst the thing that can happen in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan's parliamentary elections is exactly what many predict will happen -- that the elections will be fraudulent and plagued by irregularities and criticized by the West.
Ironically, however, with this as the expected outcome, both countries may be able to impress the democratic world with even the slightest signs that some democratic standards were observed.
((c) 1995-1999 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
http://www.rferl.org)
PART 3: Kazakhstan's big test
By Bruce Pannier
PRAGUE - Kazakhstan began 1999 by holding presidential elections strongly criticized from inside and outside the country as being unfair. Kazakhstan will end the year by holding elections to parliament - a poll that many hope will mark a step forward in democracy building in the country.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is one of the organizations watching Kazakhstan. It was also one of the harshest critics of January's presidential vote, which it said fell ''far short'' of being democratic. The OSCE refused to recognize the results.
The presidential elections were held nearly two years ahead of schedule. The early October decision by parliament to hold the election in three months' time gave any potential opposition little time to campaign.
The process was further marred by a court decision early in the campaign which barred the leading opponent of President Nursultan Nazarbayev from the race because of a minor legal offense.
Besides drawing criticism from the OSCE, the presidential elections were an embarrassment to western countries, which have been building close ties with Kazakhstan. When the recently re-elected Nazarbayev went to Washington in April for ceremonies marking NATO's 50th anniversary, few western leaders were willing to meet with him in public.
Kazakhstan's experience with parliamentary elections is not much better. The last elections were held in December 1995. The previous parliament had been dissolved by Nazarbayev in March 1995 after the country's Supreme Court declared the elections held one year earlier invalid due to irregularities. Nazarbayev ruled by decree during the eight months the country was without a parliament.
Many of the deputies elected in December 1995 were from political parties created in that eight-month interim, such as the National Unity Party, the Dauirleu Party and the Democratic Party, all of whom were pro-Nazarbayev.
Kazakh officials have said that they are willing to listen to advice from western organizations and governments about how to bring the country's upcoming parliamentary elections into line with democratic standards.
Early comments from OSCE officials and complaints by Kazakhstan's opposition parties indicate that much remains to be done if the conduct of the upcoming parliamentary election is to avoid the same harsh criticism given past balloting.
Last month, the OSCE sent a mission from its Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights to the Central Asian states of the CIS to monitor preparations for upcoming elections in the region.
Eric Collins - the political officer for the OSCE's office in Kazakhstan - says the country has not done much so far to improve legislation for the parliamentary elections:
''The OSCE continues to be quite concerned by the current law on elections. As a result, there was an aide memoire [eds: memorandum] passed to the Kazakhstani government in which the OSCE outlined its position in regard to the new law on elections and the fall parliamentary elections. In brief, the aide memoire states that the new election [law] contains many of the same shortcomings of the presidential decree under which the January 10 presidential elections were held. The new law, therefore, falls far short of OSCE standards, as well."
One of the electoral regulations perceived as unfair is the requirement that Kazakh opposition parties can only be ''fully'' registered for the election if they have branches in at least seven of Kazakhstan's 15 regions. A political party can register with the Justice Ministry in Astana, but that is only considered ''partial'' registration.
The opponent barred from the January presidential election by the court decision was former Kazakh prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin. He is now the leader of the Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan. The prosecutor general's office of Kazakhstan began an investigation of Kazhegeldin's holdings abroad last October, shortly after the early presidential elections were announced. The case seemed to vanish about the time Kazhegeldin was excluded from the race, only to re-emerge a couple of months ago.
Kazhegeldin has not been in Kazakhstan since the prosecutor general invited the former prime minister for questioning in May. The deputy chairman of the executive committee of Kazhegeldin's party, Bigeldy Gabdullin, talked with RFE/RL about the problems the party faces:
''The Republican People's Party is facing enormous problems currently. Our branches have been officially registered in only three oblasts. Local Justice departments and other official boards create obstacles for our branches to be registered. The main problems we face are created in the northern and eastern oblasts of the country. Since we have registered at the Justice Ministry of Kazakhstan, we are not supposed to face any problems in any region. In the event we fail to register our branches in at least seven oblasts, we will not be allowed to participate in upcoming parliamentary elections."
Not all parties face these obstacles. The Otan, or Fatherland, Party was easily registered by the Justice Ministry. President Nazarbayev attended the reformed party's founding congress in March. Those assembled selected Nazarbayev to lead the new party, but he said he could not head a party and be president, according to the constitution.
Former Prime Minister Sergei Tereshchenko, who preceded Kazhegeldin, was selected instead. Now the party claims to have 167,000 members, 44 of whom come from the 67-member lower house of parliament. The party has branches in all of Kazakhstan's oblasts.
Criticism from outside the country seems to have done little to alter the situation. And according to the head of Kazakhstan's Central Elections Committee, Zagipa Baliyeva, there won't be any changes in legislation before the elections.
The exact date of Kazakhstan's parliamentary elections is still not set. The last parliamentary polls were held on December 10, 1995. While this December would then seem the likely time, Kazakh officials are careful to always say ''autumn'' when speaking about elections to parliament.
At most, there are some six months to go before the elections to parliament, and it remains to be seen who will be allowed to compete for seats. But one thing is certain. Observers, both inside and outside the country, will be watching and evaluating the fairness of the vote.
((c) 1995-1999 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., All Rights Reserved. http://www.rferl.org)
|
July 07, 1999
