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THE ROVING EYE
Superfat hits Asia
In 2007, diabetes affected 46.5 million adults in Southeast Asia. By 2025, it
will strike more than 80 million. At the same time, Asia is getting fat -
leading to the specter of "diabesity" - the deadly coupling of diabetes and
obesity. Now, a group of global specialists has gathered in Thailand to spread
the alarm to doctors all over Asia. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 1,'09)
Requiem for a revolution
In the end, the sound and fury of the "Tehran spring" led to neither reform nor
revolution. The army didn't support the people, and the merchants and workers
didn't go on strike. Still, to believe that Iran's national interest and the
aspirations of its disenchanted masses will be defended by the new dictatorship
of the mullahtariat is to completely miss the point.
(Jun 29,'09)
Iran's streets are lost, but hope
returns
People power may have lost in the streets against a massive repression machine,
but Iranians are not afraid anymore. They believe another Iran is possible. All
hopes lie on a protracted, creative, subversive, underground and parallel
movement of civil disobedience, with strikes and mourning ceremonies held up
and down the country. The seeds of the next revolution have already been
planted. (Jun 24,'09)
Meet Shah Ali Khamenei
Iranian protest leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, hurled despite himself into the eye
of an historic hurricane, now follows the human flow of people power claiming
that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's title is illegitimate; that his credibility
as a religious scholar was and remains shaky. All the same, Khamenei's power
remains complete. (Jun 22,'09)
Divine assessment vs people power
It was like a bossa nova song playing on an elevator on fire: while people
power was still driving events in Tehran, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
showed up at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization proclaiming "the
international capitalist order is retreating" and that the age of empires has
ended. That's entirely possible - but maybe some other old orders are ending as
well. (Jun 18,'09)
The meaning of the Tehran spring
Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has made his power play against challengers
Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani. Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei fully supported him. As the aftermath unwinds, Mousavi and
Rafsanjani need an urgent counterpunch, and their only possible play - given
that no pacifying solution can be found within the institutional framework of
the Islamic Republic - is to go after Khamenei. (Jun
15,'09)
Poetic justice of a green
revolution
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was never more dangerous then when lying about
inflation and unemployment in TV debates to lure the votes of Iran's poor. But
this may not come close to the green power he is up against. Psychedelic green.
The color of Islam, the color of presidential challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi
and, for many, the color of hope. (Jun 11,'09)
The shadow war in Balochistan
With or without using Jundallah for its own Iran-destabilizing agenda,
Washington's "other" war is about to hit Balochistan in Pakistan full speed
ahead. By mid-summer, the US's Afghan surge in troops will be in position. A
new American mega-base in Helmand province's "desert of death" will be
operational. Assassination teams, drone attacks and Hellfire missiles will boil
this tense tri-border area. Shadowplay rules. (Jun
3,'09)
Pipelineistan goes Iran-Pak
A deal was finally signed this week in Tehran by which Iran will sell gas from
its South Pars mega-fields to Pakistan by way of the 2,100-kilometer, US$7.5
billion Iran-Pakistan pipeline. For the moment, Iran, Pakistan, China and
Russia win. Washington and NATO lose, not to mention Afghanistan. But will
Balochistan province also win? If not, all hell will break loose, creating an
even greater, regional, ball of fire. (May 28,'09)
Slouching towards balkanization
Washington is focused on the Pakistani province of Balochistan like a laser. In
an evolving strategy of balkanization of the country - increasingly popular in
Washington foreign-policy circles - Balochistan has very attractive assets:
natural wealth, scarce population and a port, which is key for Pipelineistan
plans. (May 21,'09)
Pipelineistan goes Af-Pak
From the "Las Vegas of Central Asia" to the backlands of Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan and Pakistan to Beijing, Moscow and Washington, the politics of
"blue gold" (natural gas) and great-power politics are playing out in a lethal
liquid war. (May 13,'09)
REBRANDING THE LONG WAR, Part 2
Balochistan is the ultimate prize
Strategically, the Pakistani province of Balochistan is mouth-watering: east of
Iran, south of Afghanistan, and boasting three Arabian sea ports, including
Gwadar - a harbor built by China - which is the absolute key. The only
acceptable scenario for the Pentagon is to take over Gwadar, gaining a prime
confluence of Pipelineistan and the US empire of bases. The die has been cast.
(May 8,'09)
This is the concluding article in a two-part report.
PART 1: Obama
does his Bush impression
REBRANDING THE LONG WAR, Part 1
Obama does his Bush impression
This week's summit between United States President Barack Obama and Afghan
President Hamid Karzai and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan was less
about saving lives than it was about rhetorically re-inventing - and physically
relocating - the past administration's "global war on terror". The question is:
how far will the three leaders go to wipe out al-Qaeda in Afghanistan or halt
the Predator drone war against Pashtun peasants in Pakistan?
(May 7,'09)
The myth of Talibanistan
The Taliban's activities in Buner in Pakistan - which prompted a sharp response
from the military - have raised concern over the country to the level of
hysteria; that it is about to fall to an army of turbans. This is not going to
happen. What is happening is that the United States, to legitimize the next
stage in the Af-Pak war, is creating a new uber-bogeyman - Pakistan Taliban
leader Baitullah Mehsud. (Apr 30,'09)
Torture whitewash from The Dark
Side
The drama of torture memos released last week is shaping up as a case of
American exceptionalism one cannot believe in. Without accepting full
responsibility for torture - and illegal, pre-emptive wars - there can be no
catharsis in America. President Barack Obama is smart enough to know that if he
looks the other way, this whole mess could come back to haunt, and even
destroy, his presidency. (Apr 23,'09)
The mother of all cockfights
What President Barack Obama won't do - and the Pentagon won't allow - is to do
a full Vietnam and go down as the president who lost the American empire of
bases and the dream of prevailing in the New Great Game in Eurasia. Meanwhile,
it will be Predator hell from above raining over angry Pashtun tribals in
Pakistan. Make no mistake: there will be blood - a lot of blood.
(Apr 16,'09)
The president makes a victory lap
President Obama's arrival in Baghdad for a gated-community photo op - without
so much as a glimpse of real-life, messy, dangerous Red Zone Baghdad - made it
shockingly clear that Obama, for all his charisma, is still the president of an
occupying power. He says his presence can help resolve issues. His rhetorical
change is more than welcome. But actions do speak louder than words.
(Apr 8,'09)
Globocop versus the TermiNATO
No one will actually admit it - but many in Washington and Brussels would love
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to really be a borderless international
sheriff, bypassing the United Nations to perform humanitarian imperialism all
over the globe, taking out al-Qaeda and "terrorists" anywhere, and protecting
energy pipelines for Western interests in all directions.
(Apr 3,'09)
The secrets of Obama's surge
President Barack Obama is selling the US's military surge in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as nation-building based on trust. A hard sell if there ever was one -
as Washington cannot trust the Pakistani government or security forces, while
the Pakistanis don't trust Washington. Can nation-building be done by Predator
drones? Will this become Obama's Vietnam? Whatever it is, it's not about
"terrorists". Not really. (Apr 1,'09)
Obama's Afghan Spaghetti Western
To sum up the acronym-infested situation in western Afghanistan, the whole
picture looks like a version of the Sergio Leone-directed film The Good, the Bad
and the Ugly. The area's most important military base is Italian, where
3,000 men are charged with controlling a Mafia-run territory with Taliban
Godfathers aplenty. The Italians are encircled, and even a "pizza surge" from
Rome might not save them. (Mar 27,'09)
Liquid war: Welcome to
Pipelineistan
The new Silk Road of energy sees Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tehran fight
for control of Caspian oil lines on a global energy battlefield on which the
fate of humankind could well be settled. Pepe Escobar enters the Space
Odyssey-style map room of Russian energy giant Gazprom, spends a rainy
"night" in Georgia, and discovers the thrill of following energy around the
"arc of instability". (Mar 25,'09)
Burn, Balochistan, burn
Somebody needs to tell United States President Barack Obama that a strong
government in Kabul capable of overseeing its provinces and porous borders is a
pipe dream, and that Western allies have no interest in participating in the
US's new front in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. The best solution for
Afghanistan remains China's: a UN peacekeeping force, largely composed of
Muslim soldiers. (Mar 19,'09)
Another round of Ahmadineboom
With the reformist bloc split ahead of Iran's presidential elections on June
12, the road to victory now seems clear for incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who
has just launched a charm offensive to calm the hardcore ayatollahs in Qom and
upstage his only likely rival. The word in Tehran is that an Ahmadinejad second
term would solidify all of Iran's fundamentalist factions. Hawks in Israel are
already polishing their bombs. (Mar 18,'09)
Taliban set to burn the Reichstag?
The united Pakistani Taliban are helping to prepare a massive spring offensive
directed by Mullah Omar against the surging United States-led coalition in
Afghanistan. Meanwhile, cynics in Brussels bet that some weaponized arm of
Western arrogance doesn't stand a chance against built-for-war mujahideen who
have defeated everyone from Alexander the Great onwards.
(Mar 12,'09)
The Obama-Medvedev turbo shuffle
US President Barack Obama won't ever play chess like the Russian masters, but a
solid knowledge of Francis Coppola's Godfather flicks could carry the
day with his Kremlin counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev. If Washington intends to
lure Russia to the anti-Iran train, Obama had better leave the gun at home and
call on Moscow with some cannoli. (Mar 4,'09)
Backstage at the theater of 'terror'
United States President Barack Obama - even without being an
expert on the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater - has got to be clever enough to see
the surge there as a suicidal gambit. The problem is that he still seems to
believe the war is "winnable", and his newest definition for victory is "to
defeat al-Qaeda". Well, if that is the mission he must pursue, the key is
Pakistan, not Afghanistan. (Feb 26,'09)
Obama, Osama and Medvedev
The 1,600-kilometer Karachi-Khyber-Kabul supply line envisioned by the United
States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is for all practical purposes
dead - thanks to neo-Taliban guerrillas in Pakistan's tribal areas. If
Washington and Moscow can't hash out a new route, the only other realistic
possibility for the coalition is courting Iran, which is already deeply
connected to Russia, and China. (Feb 19,'09)
US-IRAN WALL OF MISTRUST, Part 2
Will Obama say 'we're sorry'?
Former ruler the shah and revolutionary leader ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini have
been described as the two juxtaposed Irans: imperial Iran and the painful Iran
of the blood of the martyr, "a juxtaposition that symbolizes an unreal dream
... a dementia of the inaccessible". For US President Barack Obama, the
"inaccessible" can become more than accessible with just a simple "we're
sorry". (Feb 12,'09)
This is the second article in a two-part report.
PART 1: Obama's
Persian double
US-IRAN WALL OF MISTRUST, Part 1
Obama's Persian double
Speaking on the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iranian President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad stressed that any United States changes in attitude towards
Tehran had to be "fundamental and not tactical". It is now up to US President
Barack Obama to differentiate between the two. Obama may, however, be saved
from having to make a choice should Mohammad "dialogue of civilizations"
Khatami return to power. (Feb 11,'09)
This is the first article of a two-part report
Obama's arc of instability
Announcing his new State Department, United States President Barack Obama
stressed "America's commitment to lead". But lead where? Where's the boldness,
the real change of mindset? The Pentagon's "arc of instability" hovers over
Obama's "Clinton-3" State Department like a ghostly self-fulfilling prophecy.
Unless, of course, the Obama White House really kicks out ideology and steers
the US back to politics. (Jan 29,'09)
Fade out on George W Bush
What a record: stolen elections, corporate greed, fraud and corruption,
unlimited spending, wealth redistribution (to the top), no checks and balances,
rampant militarization, the destruction of Iraq, permanent war, and
unquantifiable, unrepayable national debt. Not many world emperors are able to
create a vast wasteland, call it a government, and then retire. (Jan
16,'09)
Obama and the new Latin America
Delegates to this week's groundbreaking, wide-ranging, 33-country Latin
American and Caribbean summit in Brazil understandably devoted much time to
Cuba, and its testy relations with the United States. This is just one of the
challenges facing US president-elect Barack Obama in a fast-integrating Latin
America in which China, Russia and Iran are increasingly active.
(Dec 18,'08)
The emperor gets the boot
Call it poetic justice, but in the end President George W Bush found his
weapons of mass destruction - in the form of two size 10 shoes hurled at his
head. Bush may have dodged them with his "cat-like" reflexes, but
metaphorically they managed to strike the huge army of assorted profiteers that
made the Iraqi tragedy possible, while putting US public opinion to shame. The
thrower, meanwhile, is being hailed across the Arab world.
(Dec 17,'08)
Bush comfortable on the SOFA
When Iraqi parliamentarians vote on Wednesday on whether or not to endorse a
security pact with the United States, many of them will not have had the
opportunity to study the finer points. Perhaps all they need to know is that
the Pentagon and President George W Bush are very comfortable with it.
(Nov 25,'08)
A pact with the devil
Influential Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr is already threatening fire and
brimstone over the Iraqi cabinet's approval of a draft security agreement with
the United States. But Muqtada, currently studying in Iran, is in a difficult
position: he has to confront the problem that in strategic terms, Tehran
subscribes to not attacking US troops as the best way for the Americans to
eventually leave. (Nov 17,'08)
The keys to the country
Politically, the long George W Bush night of the soul ends in some 70 days.
Historically, led by a cool black man with a weapon of mass seduction, this
passage of time could be the prelude to a new day. It's up to an engaged,
tirelessly mobilized American society - and the whole planet - to turn hope
into reality, and help this man "change America, and change the world".
(Nov 7,'08)
The $55 trillion question
With a third presidential debate victory and a tottering American economy,
conditions are in place for a Barack Obama landslide. But what will he win,
exactly? Answer: A country $55 trillion in the hole (that's $480,000 per
household), embroiled in unpopular wars and set to endure unemployment not seen
since the 1930s. Perhaps conditions are also in place for Obama to ditch the
"war on terror" - and launch a war on poverty. (Oct
16, '08)
A bailout and a new world
While the US is trying to implement its US$700 billion financial bail-out plan,
French President Nicolas Sarkozy talks of "rebuilding" capitalism. In the
corridors of the United Nations, there is talk of another kind of rebuilding,
of a new multipolar world that would get rid of imperialism and colonialism.
Call it the revenge of the developing world. (Sep 25,
'08)
Iran-bashing from al-Qaeda's corner
Al-Qaeda's leadership, in a battle to seduce Muslim hearts and minds, says its
top strategic enemy is Shi'ites - be it Tehran or Hezbollah - and not the
United States. Winning over Shi'ites will fuel al-Qaeda's objective of a "long
war" in which the only winner will be the US military-industrial complex.
That's the sorry legacy of 9/11, seven years on. (Sep
11,'08)
All square
It's more than possible that within the next few months a pro-gun, pro-Big Oil,
mooseburger-eating PR stunt named Sarah Palin, whose foreign policy credentials
are burnished by a visit to Canada, will have her finger on America's nuclear
button if anything untoward should happen to a septuagenarian president. But
fear not: Palin will have a plan, just as she has/will have (it's not at all
clear) a plan for Iraq: "[T]hat is what we have to make sure, [that] there is a
plan and that plan is God's plan." (Sep 5, '08)
Paris Obama for president
American voters can abandon any hope for serious political debate in the race
for the White House. The "swift-boating" campaign of Republican Senator John
McCain paints Democratic rival Senator Barack Obama as too young, too arrogant
and just too rock star to be president. The race is now all about Obama, and
his campaign will have to change the rules, and do it quick.
(Aug 7, '08)
Al-Qaeda's got a brand new bag
United States Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama has got it
right - Afghanistan, and not Iraq, is "the central front in the war on terror".
Al-Qaeda couldn't agree more. That is exactly where they want the war to be
fought, and then extended into Pakistan. (Jul 23,
'08)
Obama's brave (new?) world
At first glance, Democratic Senator Barack Obama's "new overarching strategy"
for Iraq and Afghanistan is streets ahead of the approach proposed by his US
presidential rival, Republican Senator John McCain. But from the planned
withdrawal of troops from Iraq to dealing with the Taliban, Obama's vision,
when it comes to implementation, will likely founder on the harsh realities
that have so frustrated the George W Bush administration.
(Jul 16, '08)
Iran's missiles are just for
show
As a political statement to world leaders gathered in Japan, Iran's test-firing
on Wednesday of nine long-and-medium range missiles was impeccable. But even if
Iran had the physical means to deliver the nuclear warheads it does not
possess, these tests do not mean it has mastered the capability to do so.
Iran's real deterrence against an attack comes from the reorganization of its
military, giving it effectively 30 armies spread across the country.
(Jul 10, '08)
Big Oil's 'secret' out of
Iraq's closet
The Iraqi war's worst-kept secret saw daylight this week with a report on the
role US government-led advisers played in drawing up contracts for Western oil
companies to develop Iraqi oil fields. The big prize is still being pursued, as
is the White House's other dream - a US$7.6 billion, 1,600-kilometer pipeline
through Afghanistan. (Jul 3, '08)
Why Iraq won't be South Korea
President George W Bush's last call in Iraq is an agreement that would create a
US-style consumer society in the Mesopotamian sands, a demilitarized client
state under benign US protection. Better yet, it could be like a 21st century
version of the South Korean "tiger" miracle. The problem is, Iraqis aren't
buying into it. And without an agreement, and a new US-friendly Iraqi oil law,
Bush's US$3 trillion Iraq adventure will have been for nothing.
(Jun 19, '08)
Gaza: Mogadishu or Dubai?
Battered Gaza, a new line of thinking goes, could be turned from a war-ravaged
"Mogadishu" into a prosperous hub such as Dubai. First, though, the
"terrorists" Hamas have to be smashed into oblivion. Anyway, that's not the
real issue: Gaza goes way beyond Hamas: it is directly connected to the larger
Israel and United States-Iran confrontation. (Jun 13,
'08)
And the winner is ... the Israel
lobby
For many decades, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee has helped shape
the United States' ties with Israel, to the extent it maintains a virtual
stranglehold over the US Congress and powerful think-tanks. This week,
Washington's political elite, including all three presidential hopefuls, will
address the committee's annual meeting. Beyond the US-Israel relationship,
expect sharp pointers to "the Iran problem". (Jun 2,
'08)
The Mosul riddle
While most attention in Iraq is focused on Baghdad and the troubles in Sadr
City, under the global radar an invisible war in Mosul drags on, officially
against al-Qaeda in Iraq jihadis but in fact a barely disguised anti-Sunni
mini-pogrom conducted by government-embedded militias.
(May 23, '08)
The US-Iran sound bite showdown
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's latest comments on Israel have been
variously translated in the Western media, the most ominous saying Israel will
not save itself from "death and destruction". This will inevitably be seized on
by the George W Bush administration as more evidence that Tehran wants to
"destroy" Israel, muscling up the case for a preemptive US attack. Maybe that
is what Ahmadinejad intends. (May 15, '08)
How under-the-gun Iran
plays it cool
What Iranian leaders dream of is an Iran respected as a major power.
To this end, they have little choice, faced with the enmity of the globe's
"sole superpower" - its sanctions and its ring of military bases - but to
employ a sophisticated counter-encirclement foreign policy. And given President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad's place in the country's politico-religious politics, he
might be betting on the usefulness of an American air assault.
(May 2, '08)
Hillary,
the war chick
It was a silly question to begin with, but Democratic hopeful
Hillary Clinton jumped in boots and all, saying if she were US president and
Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, she would "obliterate" Iran.
Clinton's positioning spells Imperial Washington in all its glory - and hubris.
(Apr 25, '08)
My militia is more
untouchable than yours
Iraq, transfixed by no less than 28 militias, is burning - again.
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has made a lot of noise about an ongoing
government crackdown on these groups. But some militias are more untouchable
than others: the Kurdish Peshmergas fall under the radar, while Muqtada
al-Sadr's are bang in the line of fire.
(Apr 17, '08)
Evil
Iran, the new al-Qaeda
The recent opinion piece by senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsey
Graham was soothing for George W Bush administration supporters in its
assurances that the "surge" in Iraq is successful as well as noble. It also
served as a convenient demonizing of Iran. As for the majority of the American
public, which has had enough of an endless war, it's nothing but an insult to
their collective intelligence.
(Apr 9, '08)
The other Iraqi civil war
Even under George W Bush logic, "the terrorists" won and Iran won,
this time in the battle of Basra. In the north of Iraq, though, the pieces are
falling into place for an alliance between the United States, Israel and a
"greater Kurdistan". If only the pesky Iraqi nationalist Sunnis and Shi'ites
don't get in the way. (Apr 2, '08)
Shocked,
awed and left to rot
US Vice President Dick Cheney is spot on when he talks of "phenomenal changes"
in Iraq. Millions of Iraqis have lost their homes, their jobs, their families,
their dreams and in countless cases their own lives because of a pre-emptive
war. And all the while, anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr will ultimately be the
lord of what remains of Iraq. (Mar 19, '08)
Relax
and float south stream
The decision by three Central Asian energy exporters to charge
Gazprom a higher rate for gas it then channels to Europe looks like a severe
blow to the Russian company. But US and European hopes that they might secure
some independence from Russia at the other end of the supply chain increasingly
look like wishful thinking. (Mar 13, '08)
As alliances
shift, Iran wins. Again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a
Sunni Arab "axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to
isolate Iran. None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints
that Washington and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi
Arabia to hammer out contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom
line is that Iran sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on
Iraq. (Mar 6, '08)
A long road from
Kosovo to Kurdistan
The embrace by Washington of Kosovo's declaration of independence has less to
do with democracy than with hard-nosed pragmatism. The US's biggest foreign
military base - Camp Bondsteel - since the Vietnam War lies in Kosovo, and the
region will be home to a US$1.1 billion pipeline that will get oil from the
Caspian Sea ultimately to refineries in the US. Kurds in Iraq, believing Kosovo
to be a precedent for an independent Kurdistan, will be disappointed: the
US-sanctioned Turkish invasion of northern Iraq has seen to that. -
(Feb 28, '08)
Iran-Russia: Strategically on
message
A deal that will expand Gazprom's interest in Iran's South
Pars gas field and involve daughter company Gazpromneft in an oil project in
the country underlines Tehran's expanding role in the region's energy sector
and the immunity of Russian gas companies from sanctions emanating from the
United States. -(Feb 26, '08)
Slouching towards
Petroeurostan
The Iranian International Petroleum Exchange started business this week. It was
a low-key affair, yet it could mark a key point in the decline of the US dollar
as a world currency while offering oil producers a vital option to using
existing middlemen and exchanges that at present control the global oil market.
- (Feb
20, '08)
The state of the (Iraqi) union
It's more a state of disunion in Iraq, where George W Bush's invasion has left
a divided nation in anger, sorrow and shambles. Whether his successor is Barack
Obama or Hillary Clinton - or anyone else - they are not willing to defend
progressive ideas and detail how they realistically plan to confront the
quagmire. - (Jan 29, '08)
'Our' dictator gets away
with it
The embrace of President George W Bush and President General Pervez Musharraf
endures. Pakistan and its people caught in the middle are left to watch their
country burn, and contemplate the worst-case scenario of partition.
(Nov 27, '07)
Iraq: Call an air strike
There might be less violence in Baghdad, but that's because sectarian clashes
have died down as there are virtually no more neighborhoods to be ethnically
cleansed. And US engagements are declining, but only because troops are
spending more time in the bases. Now, whenever there is a mission in Baghdad,
it inevitably means an air strike. (Nov 9, '07)
Bush's Turkey shoot
The astute Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, knew before he set
foot in Washington that a sound bite would be about all President George W Bush
would have to offer on the explosive Turkey vs Kurdistan Workers' Party crisis.
Now Erdogan will wait - for just a little while - and if nothing moves, Turkey
will strike northern Iraq, hard, without consulting Washington.
(Nov 6, '07)
Double-crossing in
Kurdistan
The United States plan for Iraq all along has been no less than a "soft"
partition, including an autonomous Kurdish mini-state and Shi'ite and Sunni
regions. Even Turkey had signed on to this, provided the Iraqi Kurds cracked
down on Kurdish militants striking into Turkey. With the militants running
wild, though, Ankara has to take care of matters itself - and risk throwing the
whole grand scheme into jeopardy, including the US's designs on Iran.
(Nov 1, '07)
The Turks are coming
The United States military commander in northern Iraq has made
it clear that he will do "absolutely nothing" about reining in Kurdish rebels
in the area. This leaves Turkey with no option but to take matters into its own
hands. The major plot, though, is the future of Iraq, or more precisely, the
partition of Iraq. (Oct 29, '07)
'War on terror' is now war
on Iran
In the face of new United States sanctions, the Iranian companies and
individuals affiliated with the now "terrorist" Revolutionary Guards Corps will
have plenty of opportunities for doing business with Russia, China or Arab
monarchies, or they may resort to the black market. But given the pervasive
business and national security influence of the Guards, by branding them as
terrorists Washington has declared war on the Iranian power elite.
(Oct 26, '07)
Attack Iran
and you attack Russia
On the international front, Iran and Russia appear to have agreed on a plan to
nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a
preemptive strike against Iran. On the home front, though, differences between
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei widen.
There can only be one winner.
(Oct 25, '07)
Iran jails its conscience
Iran's leading human rights activist is in solitary confinement in Tehran's
sinister Evin prison. Tehran is in need of a new public relations strategy.
Just when it most needs friends, it sends Emadeddin Baghi to jail - not exactly
a brilliant move. (Oct 17, '07)
It's the resistance,
stupid
Coalitions Washington didn't count on are growing in Iraq with
formerly unlikely alliances between Sunnis and Shi'ites being made, with all
opposed to US super-bases, a federalized Iraq and oil thirsty occupiers in
general. (Oct 16, '07)
General Petraeus in his
labyrinth
The US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, continues to build an ever
growing heart of darkness in Baghdad and, eventually he hopes, in Tehran. The
latest addition to his arsenal in the plan to attack the "terrorist" Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iran is a former small terrorist group once
sheltered by Saddam Hussein and now by the US, and the Kurdish PKK and PJAK
groups now stirring trouble in Iran, as well as Turkey, from Iraqi Kurdistan.
(Oct 12, '07)
Che lives
Forty years after he was executed at the behest of the CIA after failing
miserably to incite revolution in Bolivia, Ernesto "Che" Guevera's image and
inspiration both eclipse anything he accomplished in life. From Bengal to
Brazil and all points in between the myth has overtaken the man.
(Oct 9, '07)
A divided Iraq just
doesn't add up
Although the United States Senate's vote to split Iraq into a
loose, three-region sectarian federation is non-binding, it reflects sentiment
both in the US and in sections of Iraq about what might be in store. Yet it
would be an unmitigated disaster, at best leading to partition, at worst to
ethnic cleansing. (Oct 3, '07)
The southern axis of evil
After Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's frosty reception in New York, the
red carpets were rolled out for him in Bolivia and Venezuela, Iran's key
strategic allies in South America. The trade deals Ahmadinejad signed are
significant, as is his realization of which way the winds are blowing in a new
world order. (Oct 2, '07)
Buddha vs the barrel of
a gun
With the United Nations as his stage, US President George W Bush announced to
the world his decision to slap new economic sanctions on Myanmar. This is just
for internal American consumption. The outcome of the showdown between
thousands of Buddhist monks and the military rulers in Myanmar will in all
likelihood be decided in China. (Sep 26, '07)
'Hitler' does New York
Despite his demonization by the White House, US media and his Columbia
University host, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's skillful and
manipulative Big Apple blitz has wowed the audience that really matters:
worldwide Muslim public opinion. For those who listened, unlike the many who
simply brand the man as too evil to speak, Ahmadinejad coolly turned American
disinformation on its head to his own advantage. (Sep
25, '07)
Welcome to Planet Gaza
The Israeli cabinet's edict to declare the Gaza Strip a
"hostile territory" and slowly grind its population even further down is only
the latest strategy to sabotage any attempt by Hamas to govern the Strip
properly. It's also a template for US logic in Iraq.
(Sep 21, '07)
French-kissing the war on
Iran
Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the United Nations' nuclear
watchdog, has dropped his diplomatic demeanor in an attempt to defuse French
comments over "preparing for the worst" - war on Iran. ElBaradei has already
upset Western powers led by the United States by brokering an agreement with
Iran over its nuclear program. Now he is up against a France playing messenger
to big (energy) business. (Sep 18, '07)
Mr Bush, your sheikh is
dead
Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq on Thursday,
was the congenial face of the United States' efforts to engage Sunnis in the
reconciliation process with the Shi'ite-led government. The prime suspect is
al-Qaeda, which the sheikh's alliance was fighting with weapons and money
supplied by the US. But Abu Risha had other enemies, especially among Sunnis
whose main goal remains ending the occupation, not befriending it.
(Sep 14, '07)
Behind the Anbar myth
One of the key arguments in General David Petraeus' presentation to the US
Congress this week was the close collaboration between the occupation and Sunni
tribal leaders in al-Anbar province. Nothing could be further from the truth:
what success there is in Anbar is not due to the general's wily ways, but to an
Iraqi sheikh. And even then, US occupation forces remain the main enemy.
(Sep 13, '07)
Sheikh Osama and the iPod
general
Both Osama bin Laden and General David Petraeus aim to seduce multiple layers
of constituencies, but above all US public opinion. The al-Qaeda leader revels
in what he views as the United States' failed imperial project and promotes a
global "protest movement". Washington's top man in Iraq still sees success in
the "surge". How different things might have been had Petraeus been set loose
on bin Laden's trail six years ago. (Sep 11, '07)
From al-Qaeda to al-Quds
The only guiding logic of the US far right in power is permanent war and any
excuse will do for President George W Bush to attack Iran. The Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps will retaliate and all of Iran, out of Persian
national pride, will rally behind the supreme leader, President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad and the theocratic police state. So much for regime change.
(Sep 6, '07)
Bush's brand-new poodle
With former British prime minister Tony Blair put out to new pastures, US
President George W Bush has a newer, leaner, meaner, adrenaline-packed "Made in
France" version of his favorite ally in all things "war on terror". President
Nicolas Sarkozy has wasted no time in joining the demonize-Iran campaign, and
is taking trans-Atlantic entente to new levels. (Aug
29, '07)
Welcome to Hillary's wars
With her eye on the US presidency, Hillary Clinton is jockeying for a macho
political position. Whether she means it or not, the reality if she becomes
president is that she knows the US powers-that-be, even if they are in decline,
will never accept a majority-Shi'ite Iraqi government aligned with an Islamic
Republic of Iran. (Aug 23, '07)
Highlights of the (not so) silly
season
All is not well in France, even though its new president is the best-loved
Frenchman in the US since Lafayette, its newspapers have simply erased the Iraq
war from their pages, and mini-Eiffel Towers made in China for 10 cents each
and sold by immigrant Africans in front of the real thing (which itself is
surrounded by Chinese-owned real estate) can be had for a mere US$5. Meanwhile
in Iran, things are even sillier - and nastier. (Aug
15, '07)
We all live in an Antonioni
world
Decades before mobile phones connected us with everything except the dry
cleaners, Michelangelo Antonioni, the great Italian film director who died this
week at 94, was focused on what is worth being communicated. He was not only
the great painter of the cataclysmic 1960s, he was the painter of the world we
now live in. Pepe Escobar bids him buona notte.
(Aug 2, '07)
Fun and games on the Arab
Riviera
What better place than the French Riviera for President George W Bush to hold
his proposed Middle East peace summit? The region's movers and shakers own
villas in the quaintly named "California" estate, where they escape the
scorching summers of the Middle Eastern desert. Pepe Escobar explores a
corner of Europe divided not by Christian vs Muslim, but by ultra-haves and
aspiring have-somethings. (Jul 20, '07)
COMMENT
Iraq, the
new Israel
While US President George W Bush fiddles, Baghdad continues to burn, fueled by
divide-and-conquer tactics inspired by Israel's occupation of Palestine.
(Jul 5, '07)
COMMENT
Hamastan and Red Zoneistan
Gaza is a gulag. The West Bank is a series of unconnected ghettoes. Baghdad is
now a gulag. Iraq has been reduced to a series of unconnectable ghettoes.
"Terrorist" Gaza has been already downgraded to Hamastan. The Red Zone - that
is, real Baghdad - is actually Red Zoneistan. (Jun
28, '07)
Levitate the
Pentagon
 The
year was 1967, and Americans were advised to turn on, tune in and drop out.
Forty years later, the slogan might as well be turn off, tune out and drop
dead. They missed an opportunity then to levitate the Pentagon, and so the only
way to stop the insanity of Iraq, and probably soon Iran, is a thorough
mobilization of public opinion, as in Vietnam. Alas, there are no second acts
in this drama. (Jun 18, '07)
Welcome
to the summer of hate
Forty years ago, when The Beatles released their Sgt Pepper's album, the
world seemed to be singing in tune. It marked the beginning of the Summer of
Love, even if it included Vietnam War escalation. Today, we have Patti Smith
singing covers of The Beatles, Iraq instead of Vietnam, and a possible attack
on Iran. Call it the summer of hate. (Jun 1, '07)
The
second coming of Saladin
Political repression, social inequality and economic disaster across the
Middle East are the consequences of decades of "divide and
rule" imperialist meddling followed by rapacious rule by
local elites. Yet the potential for unity in the Muslim world is not a chimera.
Who will be the 21st century equivalent of Saladin, the
greatest warrior of Islam? Such a one is needed to reunite the ummah.
(May 17, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
The
true heart of darkness
Iraq is and will remain for years to come the real heart of darkness of the
early 21st century. Forget about Russia or China; now, finally, the Bush
administration, the military-industrial complex and assorted armchair warriors
can finally be assured that the US has found an enemy for life.
(May 16, '07)
The
'dirty thieves' of Sadr City
Once the jewel of the Middle East, al-Mustansariya University struggles on amid
the chaos of Baghdad. Students hold out for a mostly worthless degree in hopes
it will help them find jobs outside of Iraq. Once the meeting place of wealthy
Arabs, it is now mostly made up of lower-class Shi'ites, which the former elite
looked down on as "dirty thieves" of Sadr City. (May
15, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
'The
cultivation of life'
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, despite what many believe, does not have the
"privilege" to issue a religious decree that could bring the US occupation in
Iraq to an abrupt end. Rather, leading Shi'ite cleric Sheikh Mohammed
al-Roubaie tells Pepe Escobar, people should be more spiritual. It's as
simple as that. (May 11, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Leave, or we
will behead you
Dora was a prosperous middle-class neighborhood of Baghdad by the Tigris, rich
in fruit and with a large Christian population. Now it's a favorite stomping
ground of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and a vortex of ethnic and confessional cleansing.
The few remaining Christians have a simple choice: either convert to Islam or
pay a US$1,600 fee. Even then, the chances of being killed are high.
(May 10, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Inside Sadr City
The almost 3 million people in Sadr City, an immense Shi'ite slum in eastern
Baghdad of ramshackle one-story buildings covered with dust, exude a
resignation born of sadness. But at least they feel safe, Hussein al-Motery of
the municipality tells Pepe Escobar. Unless, of course, Amrika attempts
the Pentagon dream of smashing the place into submission.
(May 9, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Back to 'Saddam
without a mustache'
 The
true measure of the overwhelming Iraqi tragedy is that people in Baghdad are
now yearning for an ersatz Saddam Hussein. For many, former premier Iyad Allawi
is just such a man. "We have cooperation with all national groups," Allawi's
spokesman tells Pepe Escobar. What he does not say is that he
also has the support of the US. (May 8, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
The
man who might save Iraq
Sheikh Abdul Satter Abu Risha doesn't mince his words. Al-Qaeda in Iraq, now
his bitter enemy, "has abused our traditions and generosity" and, he alleges,
they even "take drugs". The Sunni leader tells Pepe Escobar about the
powerful coalition of tribes in al-Anbar province he heads, with visions even
of a Sunni coalition fighting alongside a predominantly Shi'ite Iraqi
government against Salafi jihadi terror. (May 4,
'07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
What Muqtada
wants
All that the Sadrists want is a timetable for the US withdrawal from
Iraq, Nasr al-Roubaie, Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's top man in government,
tells Pepe Escobar. This struggle is both "peaceful and armed", he
admits, and there is a possibility of an Iraqi shadow cabinet being formed
uniting Sadrists and Sunni nationalists. But whatever happens, Muqtada remains
the kingmaker. (May 3, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Masri: Dead or
alive, the terror continues
News that Abu al-Masri, the Egyptian-born leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, had been
killed was ecstatically greeted in the 3-million-strong Shi'ite slum of Sadr
City in Baghdad. The joy might be premature, as the death has not been
confirmed. But true or not, the killing of Masri will make no difference. One,
two, a thousand Masris are waiting in the wings, and al-Qaeda's strategy of
non-stop bloody bombings to keep inciting Sunnis to attack Shi'ites won't
change. (May 2, '07)
ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
ATol's "Roving Eye", Pepe Escobar, is back in Iraq and in the
Red Zone - that is, everything outside "Fortress USA", the Green Zone. This is
the first of his unembedded, non-Kevlar-protected, bodyguardless reports.
Baghdad up close and personal
Having dodged a bullet but not arrest by the Mehdi
Army militia, Escobar witnesses the grand-scale mayhem and the minutiae of
misery of Baghdad. In the deadly daily embrace of the Red Zone, the surreal
overlaps Hollywood-style special effects while ethnic cleansing proceeds
neighborhood by neighborhood and the bereaved are told to visit the market
to find the missing limbs of their dead. (May
1, '07)
'All life is waiting'
For one attractive young Iraqi war widow, life these days is waiting, waiting,
waiting in the consular section of the Iraqi Embassy in Damascus, where she and
other desperate people seek that lucky piece of paper that might allow them to
go to Portugal, or Spain, or anywhere. Anywhere except the living hell of
Baghdad. "They destroyed our country. Why, why?" asks another.
(Apr 26, '07)
We build walls, not
nations
The 5-kilometer-long, 3.7-meter-high concrete wall being built to contain the
Sunni neighborhood of Adhamiyah in Baghdad will fail, even if Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki doesn't manage to get it stopped. The US cannot cut off the head
of the resistance in Iraq - simply because there is no head. Although talking
to the nine recently united leading Sunni Arab resistance groups would be a
start. (Apr 23, '07)
Hezbollah's big challenge
In Iraq, the US pits its own Shi'ite collaborators against "other" Shi'ites and
assorted Sunnis in Iraq. In Lebanon, meanwhile, the US places its Sunni clients
against Shi'ites, with help from jihadis linked to al-Qaeda. Hezbollah's
challenge is to prevent this from developing into a regional Sunni-Shi'ite war.
(Apr 18, '07)
The Baghdad gulag
The million-man Shi'ite march in Najaf coupled with the
spectacular bombing of the Iraqi Parliament in the Green Zone truly spells the
end of the US in Iraq. The only thing left is to turn Baghdad into a cluster of
self-contained gated communities - a gulag - where the few can feel safe from
the chaos around them. But isn't the Green Zone a gated community? (Apr
13, '07)
Night bus from Baghdad
In the mythology of US neo-cons, Syria is a sanctuary where jihadis rest and
regroup before heading into Iraq on another bombing run. The reality is quite
the opposite, as one can see at the Syria-Iraq border. The traffic is all
one-way - in the direction of Syria, where tens of thousands of ordinary Iraqis
now live a precarious, but safe, life far from the hell of Baghdad.
(Apr 12, '07)
Who
profits from a 'gas OPEC'?
A meeting in the tiny Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar may be signaling
the birth of a new cartel grouping countries controlling 73% of the world's gas
and 42% of production. The prospect is shaking the wealthy, gas-dependent
countries of the West to the core. (Apr
10, '07)
In the heart of Little
Fallujah
The hundreds of thousands of Iraqi
refugees in Syria have created their own enclaves, from Little Fallujah to
Little Mosul, where many have set up businesses. They pay in US dollars, dance
to the tune of their own music and share one desire: to return to an Iraq free
of occupying forces. Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have learned a lot if she
had taken a stroll in Little Fallujah. (Apr
5, '07)
British pawns in an Iranian game
The Iranian seizure of 15 British sailors may be much cleverer
than it appears. Oil has moved above US$60 a barrel as a result of the
incident. And if Tehran drags out proceedings, the Shi'ites in southern Iraq
may take the hint and accelerate a confrontation, and even start merging with
strands of the Sunni resistance.
(Mar 28, '07)
BOOK REVIEW
The man who would be king
Rumsfeld: His Rise, Fall and Catastrophic Legacy by Andrew
Cockburn
A fitting way to "celebrate" shock and awe, the bombastic opening of the most
astonishing blunder in recent military/geopolitical history, would be to read
this book about the life of Donald Rumsfeld, a life spent pursuing personal
grandeur at enormous cost to entire nations, including his own.
(Mar 20, '07)
The waterboarded
evildoer
Just how much of Khalid
Shaikh Mohammad's confession of terror attacks is true is a moot point. What
does matter is the number of jihadis al-Qaeda's former operations chief taught.
Probably dozens, and they are lurking in the shadows, ready to inflict blowback
to kingdom come. (Mar 16, '07)
What drives biofuel
Bush?
The prospect of a Green Saudi Arabia in America's "back yard" has US President
George W Bush and Brazilian President Lula da Silva rubbing their hands
together with glee after the signing of a potentially very lucrative biofuels
agreement that could lead to a new form of colonialism in Latin America and the
Caribbean.(Mar 13, '07)
The fall guy in Iraq
Even as the "surge" proceeds in Baghdad, the US is quietly moving to implement
"Plan B", which would be nothing less than a coup d'etat pushing the hapless
Nuri al-Maliki aside and installing former CIA asset and neo-con favorite Iyad
Allawi back in as a dictator. Nothing less than a return to strongman rule will
restore order, Washington believes. (Mar 12, '07)
Bush down south
US President George W Bush is headed Brasilia way to try to
counter the growing influence of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. He might as
well stay home. Chavez is the king of Latin America, and the number of
potential US allies among the pseudo-populist regimes, such as in Brazil, is
diminishing by the day. (Mar 7, '07)
An ill wind in Iran
All is not well in Iran, specifically the health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. One proposed succession plan involves the appointment of a
triumvirate, rather than turn to the next in line, former president Hashemi
Rafsanjani. Such a move, though, would lead to the isolation of President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad.(Mar 1, '07)
US's Iraq oil grab is a
done deal
Under draft oil legislation approved by the Iraqi cabinet, the country's oil
wealth will, in theory, be distributed directly to Kurds in the north, Shi'ites
in the south and Sunnis in the center. In effect, the massive reserves will be
under the iron rule of a fuzzy council boasting "a panel of oil experts from
inside and outside Iraq". That is, nothing less than predominantly US Big Oil
executives. - (Feb 27, '07)
The hottest party in the galaxy
They're on patrol on the hot streets of Rio, where the only heat-seeking
missiles around are the curvaceous Brazilian bombshells, and they are not to be
dodged. Forget the Sambadrome and head for the supercharged blocos, full
of pickpockets and chambermaids dressed up as Nordic goddesses. The Green Zone
was never like this. (Feb 21, '07)
Iran, the EU and the Swiss
way out
The Swiss propose that Iran stops feeding its centrifuges with processed
uranium hexafluoride gas so that negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program can
resume. Iran has indicated a willingness to talk, yet all the heavily disunited
European Union appears capable of doing is shooting itself in the foot.
(Feb 14, '07)
Slouching toward D-day
The battle for Baghdad has officially begun. It's a double bill involving
suppression of Sunni militants and defanging Sadr City, the vast Shi'ite
enclave that staunchly backs cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army. This
counterinsurgency against classic guerrilla tactics with popular support is
doomed. Inevitably, Iran will be blamed. (Feb 8,
'07)
A massacre and a new civil
war
The massacre at Najaf points to a Baghdad-concocted operation designed to
torpedo an increasingly popular, non-sectarian Sunni and Shi'ite Iraqi
nationalist alliance that is anti-US and anti-Iran. In the process, yet another
civil war could emerge - "Arab" Shi'ites against "Persian" Shi'ites.
(Feb 2, '07)
The 'axis of fear' is born
Given the disaster of occupied Iraq, the Bush administration has a new
scapegoat: exit al-Qaeda, enter Iran. The Sunni Arab "axis of fear" is merrily
playing along, stoking the chaos on which the US underpins its plans for a "new
Middle East" - internal sectarianism and state-to-state sectarianism.
(Feb 1, '07)
The state of
the (dis)union
While US President George W Bush's State of the Union address was a non-event
in terms of a new strategy for the Middle East, what the "enemy" is thinking
has been personified by al-Qaeda's No 2, Sunni Arab Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, and
Iraqi Shi'ite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr. But it is unclear who will be
the ultimate winner of the escalated conflict in Iraq, only that the losers
will be the Iraqi poor - especially as the Pentagon is on course to launch an
air war over Baghdad. (Jan 24, '07)
Ahmadinejad be damned
While Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been traipsing around South
America hatching energy plots, all is not well on the home front. Ahmadinejad
is subject to crossfire from conservatives and reformers alike, with the former
particularly upset over his handling of the nuclear dossier and wanting to rein
him in. Washington might need to start manufacturing another "new Hitler".
(Jan 18, '07)
Somalia: Afghanistan remixed
Ethiopia's US-backed invasion of Somalia gives the US a client regime in the
highly strategic Horn of Africa. But it will also generate a whirlwind of
blowback, making Somalia the new Afghanistan and also the new Iraq - just one
more battlefront in the lands of Islam. (Jan 12,
'07)
Surging toward the holy oil grail
If a new oil law friendly to Western business is passed in
Iraq, the chances of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army joining the
Sunni resistance will increase dramatically. Thus the preemptive, two-pronged
escalation by President George W Bush on the war front - against both Muqtada
and nationalist Sunnis. (Jan 11, '07)
Iran's crocodile rocked
Moderates, with unexpected gains in the weekend's elections for the influential
Council of Experts, have dealt Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and his
extreme-right mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (also known as "the crocodile"), a
hard blow. But the real winner is Supreme Leader Ali al-Khamenei, whose vast
powers remain undiluted. (Dec 18, '06)
US staying the course for Big Oil
in Iraq
One solution to the Iraqi tragedy would be for the Bush administration to give
up its quest for the country's oil, with no preconditions. This is not going to
happen, which is why there can be no firm timeline for a complete US
withdrawal. A new Iraqi oil law being drafted will open the industry to
foreigners, and US troops will be needed to defend Big Oil's investment.
(Dec 13, '06)
Bush, OPEC and Chavez of
Arabia
The Bolivarian Revolution of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, recently
re-elected in a landslide, is all about building an egalitarian society - and
snubbing a nose at the US. No wonder Washington is apprehensive. South America
is the only region in the world where progressive ideas are flourishing. (Dec
6, '06)
Looking beyond the 'axis of evil'
With President Mahmud Ahmadinejad hosting his Iraqi
counterpart in Iran (minus Syria) and President George W Bush due to meet Iraqi
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the scramble for solutions to the Iraqi debacle
continues. In the meantime, all options remain open - from a return of the
Ba'athists to an attack on the US heart in Iraq, the Green Zone.
(Nov 28, '06)
Following the yellow BRIC road
After his re-election on Sunday, Brazilian President Lula da Silva has some
tough choices to make. His country has been identified along with Russia, India
and China as one of the great emerging economic powers of the 21st century. But
the path to prosperity has many forks in the road. (Oct
31, '06)
'Stability
first': Newspeak for rape of Iraq
It's not the first time Baghdad has been sacked. Genghis Khan's grandson did
it, and so did Tamerlan. In the good old days, they built pyramids of skulls.
This time around, they coin nice names, like "Stability First" and "Redeploy
and Contain". "Staying the Course" is out of favor, but no matter, they all
amount to the same thing: rape. (Oct 26, '06)
The
other September 11
In 1973, South America had its own September 11 when Salvador Allende was
overthrown in a US-inspired coup by Augusto Pinochet. This set the stage for
the transcontinental Operation Condor, a Latino war "of" terror that eliminated
thousands of people who were or might have become political adversaries.
(Sep 11, '06)
Part 2: Lost paraguayos: Yankees are coming
In fact, they're already there - in the
heart of the Amazon, US Special Forces welcomed last year by Paraguay's
Bush-friendly president, and eyed with suspicion by the region's populist
governments. It all comes back once again to the 21st-century energy wars. This
is the concluding article in a two-part report.
(Aug 3, '06)
Part
1: Hezbollah south of the border
The
Pentagon insists that South America's Triple Border region, where Brazil,
Argentina and Paraguay meet near the spectacular Iguacu Falls, is crammed with
terrorists funneling cash to the likes of Hezbollah and al-Qaeda. The place is
a dizzying black void of contraband, narco-trafficking, weapons smuggling,
money laundering, car theft, piracy and corruption - but where, oh where, are
the terrorists? (Aug 2, '06)
The
spirit of resistance
Hezbollah's asymmetrical war effort is absorbing everything thrown at it.
Resistance is fueled by a mix of beggar's banquet anger, creative military
solutions and Shi'ite martyr spirit. The practical result is that Hezbollah is
even more popular all over the Arab street. (Jul 25,
'06)
Lebanon left for dead
Events in Lebanon fall into the pattern of a master plan drawn up by US
neo-conservatives for Israel 10 years ago. The "getting rid of Saddam Hussein"
part has already been accomplished. The degradation of the Palestinians is
ongoing. The "destabilizing of Syria in Lebanon" took place last year. The next
step would be hitting at both Syria and Iran via Lebanon.
(Jul 20, '06)
Leviathan
run amok
Israel's tactic of trying to turn the Lebanese as a whole against Hezbollah
seems to be doomed. Hezbollah is betting that Lebanon will be able to absorb
the extreme limits of collective punishment it is receiving - and the
resistance movement will come out stronger than ever.
(Jul 18, '06)
Russia
and Iran lead the new energy game
This weekend's G8 summit in Russia is ostensibly about energy security. But
Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement a month ago of support for a
pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and India means that Moscow and Tehran have
already positioned themselves as the key geopolitical players in the
Pipelineistan game, and thus the guarantors of energy security to Asia.
(Jul 13, '06)
And all
for a little round ball ...
For a month, billions of people, regardless
of the color of their skin, where they come from, their political ideology or
religion, can forget about the "war on terror", Iran's nuclear threat, or
anything else that bothers them. It's time for the football World Cup, a
celebration of the biggest and most profitable show on Earth.
(Jun 8, '06)
Dubai lives the post-oil
Arab dream
Dubai will soon boast the world's tallest building, the
largest hotel, the largest this and the largest that. It's well on its way
to becoming the first modern Arab metropolis,
but in this triumph for globalization, the whole glittering
facade is supported by an underclass of "invisible" foreign workers with no
rights.(Jun 6, '06)
The Gazprom
nation
Russia has an auspicious confluence of factors: its fabulous energy reserves,
on which Europe is largely dependent, and strong Asian interest in these
reserves. This is the era of pipeline power, where geopolitical turmoil is
intimately linked to gas pipeline routes. Russia and its giant Gazprom company
are sitting pretty. (May 25, '06)
BOOK REVIEW
The
accumulation of the wretched
Planet of Slums by Mike Davis
Urbanologist Mike Davis has painted a portrait of the future, and it isn't
pretty: "a grim world largely cut off from the subsistence and solidarity of
the countryside ... disconnected from the cultural and political life of the
traditional city". What Davis describes is today's reality in Baghdad and Sao
Paulo; tomorrow, it is likely, Dhaka, Jakarta and Mumbai.
(May 19, '06)
Iran impasse: Make
gas, not bombs
Iran's national interests are best served by selling portions of its huge
natural gas reserves to energy-starved Europe, not in building an atomic bomb.
Europe's best interests are served by lessening dependence on Russian gas. The
mullahs in Tehran seem to understand this; now it's a matter of pounding some
sense into other factions. (May 8, '06)
The axis of
gas
Three South American countries are leading the drive for a South American
energy grid similar to what's proposed in Asia. Venezuela's President Hugo
Chavez sees the US$23 billion project as more than an energy source, it's about
jobs and eliminating poverty - and not being pushed around by the US.
(May 2, '06)
What's
really happening in Tehran
Smiling and articulate, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad locked horns with
the international media on Monday, showing a face somewhat different from that
of a suicidal nut bent on confronting the US, as he is often portrayed. Yet the
president leads just one of four key factions in a do-or-die power play, and he
is following his own agenda, which is not the same as the Iranian theocratic
leadership's. (Apr 25, '06)
The war on Iran
Iranians know that if the US bombs the country's nuclear sites, they are
maintained by Russians; that in effect would mean a declaration of war against
Moscow. Iranians also know that Shi'ites in Iraq would turn extreme heat on the
occupation forces. And Iran has the power to halt all oil supplies from the
shores of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. (Apr
12, '06)
Real men go to Khuzestan
Even as the tanks were rolling into Baghdad, a hard core in the Bush
administration believed that the real target should have been Iran or, more
precisely, its restive Arab-dominated Khuzestan region. Tehran charges that,
indeed, US and British special forces are stirring up trouble there. If so,
they have made a serious miscalculation. (Apr
5, '06)
Iran reacts to the UN
Iranians of all stripes agree that their nation is a victim of Western
propaganda and double standards. They're adamant about their right to a
civilian nuclear program. (Mar 31, '06)
The ultimate
martyr
In the Islamic Revolution scale of values, to die as a martyr is an even
greater honor than to live as a good, practicing Muslim. Yet the last thing
Iran's clerical-political establishment needs at this moment is for President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad to martyr the nation into the status of ultimate global
outcast. It might be time for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to step in.
(Mar 30, '06)
Messages of hope from Iran
Persians pride themselves on molding Islam from the Arabs into a much more
refined faith. While Arab governments are basically mum, Iran has taken the
initiative to counteract what is perceived as Islam and religion under fire,
and to remedy the fact that Islam is not getting its message across to the
West. (Mar 27, '06)
A frenzied Persian
new year
Even though Iran is slowing down for New Year celebrations, the
political temperature remains high. Tehran is closely watching as the UN
Security Council debates its nuclear program, while proposed Iran-US talks on
Iraq have done nothing to erase suspicions on both sides. And Iran has its own
terror problem to deal with. (Mar 21, '06)
Irreversible
Iranians
The US strategy of trying to separate the Iranian people from
the regime seems doomed to failure. Nationalist fervor regarding Tehran's
nuclear rights is at a peak - and cannily manipulated by the government. What
the rest of the world thinks, too bad. (Mar 17, '06)
In the heart of
Pipelineistan
Oil and gas executives gathered in Tehran for a major conference
see the international row over Iran's nuclear program as a passing phase. There
are much bigger issues: the total energy interdependence of the Middle East and
East Asia, in which Iran will play a pivotal role.
(Mar 16, '06)
The old
lovers' nuclear tango
The diplomatic dancing over Iran's nuclear program has expanded
to a tango for two couples: the US plus the European Three on one side, and
Russia and the head of the UN nuclear watchdog on the other. Tehran waits
transfixed in the middle. (Mar 7, '06)
'Get out' ringing
in Thaksin's ears
Students, trade unionists and teachers are mingling with
peasants, Buddhist fundamentalists and middle-class families with their
portable kitchens at rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra. "Thaksin! - Get out!" is their mantra. But it's falling on
deaf ears, for now. (Feb 27, '06)
Goodbye
Iraq, hello Afghanistan
 With
Ibrahim Jaafari being given another shot at the premiership, Iraq will have a
fractious and weak central government, and go the same way as Afghanistan.
Warlords, religious or secular, and tribal sheikhs will defend their
mini-states armed to their teeth, and criminal gangs will run parallel to death
squads. Which suits Washington fine. (Feb 14, '06)
Thailand's
spreading yellow tide
They massed in Bangkok in their tens of thousands and they
draped themselves in yellow to hear media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul's latest
allegations against Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. And they were not
disappointed, even if their countrymen were kept in the dark.
(Feb 6, '06)
But it's so
cold in Alaska
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's verbal assaults on Israel are most
likely aimed at an internal audience and are a part of a broader progression
toward self-chosen isolation. But this does not remove the fact that billions
of dollars of public relations could not have landed such a prize to Israel's
hardliners. (Dec 15,
'05)
We vote, then we
throw you out
Iraq may well be on its way to
extinction after Thursday's elections. Partition is already de facto in the
four provinces of Kurdistan, and the nine Shi'ite provinces are earmarked for
the same. The US would be left with little more than the Green Zone - which is
not exactly an oil lake - and a lot of empty desert.
(Dec 14, '05)
The politics of shopping
It was people power "lite" as media entrepreneur Sondhi
Limthongkul's weekly talk show in a Bangkok park - in which he once
again focused on corruption - had stiff competition from the
opening nearby of a megamall. People power "heavy" won't happen until
they discover their purchasing power only allows them to window-shop.
(Dec 12, '05)
The
king steps in
Following some wise words from the king of Thailand, much of the heat has been
taken out of the bitter row between Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his
most vocal critic, media entrepreneur Sondhi Limthongkul. The premier is
dropping a slew of lawsuits amounting to US$50 million against Sondhi, who,
nevertheless, still has some causes to fight.
(Dec 6, '05)
Full
power on the Arabian Sea
Wily taxi drivers in Mumbai, demented, horn-honking buses on the roads of
Kerala, computer whizzes in the backs of shacks, commuters hanging from train
windows dodging lethal poles, they're all on "full power", living out India's
new mantra. (Dec 2, '05)
An appeal to the
Thai masses
Ever since the political talk show of Thai media tycoon,
Sondhi Limthongkul, went mobile after being run off the air by the government,
it has snowballed into a political protest movement. Sondhi wants the
constitution rewritten to curb the abuse of state power. Now the matter is in
the hands of the people. (Nov 28, '05)
The occupiers' trial
With Saddam Hussein finally due in court, his defense team will argue that the
trial has no jurisdiction because it has been created by an occupying power
which has no right to change the legal system of an occupied country. In many
ways, it's the occupation itself that is in the dock.
(Oct 19, '05)
How to constitute a civil
war
If the draft Iraqi constitution is rejected on Saturday, the different strands
of the Sunni Arab resistance - as well as al-Qaeda in Iraq - will be
encouraged, because, for them, this is the occupiers' piece of paper. But even
if the constitution is approved, the same thing will happen. There couldn't
have been a more constitutional way to civil war. (Oct
14, '05)
Fear
and loathing in militia hell
The law of the jungle rules in Baghdad, coupled with the collapse of social
life, as rival militias control the city, day and night, often dressed up as
police. This is the visible legacy of the occupation on the eve of a popular
vote on a constitution.
(Oct 11, '05)
'WAR
ON TERROR' REVISITED
The conquest of Southwest Asia
Even before Katrina showed the emperor to have no clothes, there
was growing unease that the Bush administration was
subsidizing al-Qaeda to the tune of $300 billion and counting, in American
taxpayers' money, by transforming Iraq into a preferred training ground for
terrorists. So forget about "war on terror"; the war is mutating into
what it was always meant to be - the conquest of Southwest Asia first, and
Eurasia second. - (Oct 7, '05)
Who's in
charge, Qom or Najaf?
The renaissance of the holy Iraqi city of Najaf - home of the Grand Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani - is problematic. If the center of gravity of Shi'ism goes back
from Qom in Iran to where it was before - in Iraq - Iran's influence will be
tremendously reduced. (Sep 30, '05)
The
myth of the Shi'ite crescent
Shi'ites believe that the nation-state is just a
stage on the road to the final triumph of Shi'ism. But to go beyond this stage
to establish a vast Shi'ite crescent spanning the region it's necessary to
reinforce the nation-state and its Shi'ite sanctuary, which happens to be Iran.
But not all Shi'ites are in a position, or are willing, to help realize this
goal. (Sep 29, '05)
Welcome to
civil war
While US and Iraqi
army troops were chasing shadows in the town of Tal Afar, Salafi jihadis
mounted deadly and highly visible attacks against Shi'ites in Baghdad to
coincide with a call by al-Qaeda's Musab al-Zarqawi for all-out war on Shi'ites
in Iraq.
(Sep 15, '05)
Travels in
Ahmadinejadland
He is honest, a simple man who looks after the
poor and is a regular visitor to the mosque. Without fail, these are the
attributes that the mass of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's supporters in the
lower working-class areas of Tehran pinpoint. In other, more affluent areas,
praise is harder to find.
(Sep 14, '05)
Why Iran can't become the new China
Iran as an emerging Muslim China? Forget it,
says Ibrahim Yazdi, a veteran dissident politician in Iran, who sees stark
differences between what he calls the repressive Islamic republic and a more
enlightened leadership in Beijing. Yet Yazdi could be wrong.
(Sep 13, '05)
Iran
takes over Pipelineistan
As a key energy supplier to China as well as India's major supplier, Iran is in
an enviable position. Further, its trans-Caspian alliance with Russia is
iron-clad, and Tehran is well poised as a key supplier to Western Europe. Iran
has the foundation to become a major economic power.
(Sep 9, '05)
The humanist reformer
The reform movement has all but been beaten at the polls in Iran, with its
place taken by a kind of "compassionate conservatism". The voices of reform,
however, are as strident as ever, personified by Emadeddin Baghi, even if
Iranians are not listening. (Sep 7, '05)
Iran
knocks Europe out
Tehran has called the EU's bluff, and
international opinion faces a split.
(Sep 6, '05)
A nuclear
(mis)adventure in Isfahan
The focus of Tehran's nuclear standoff with
Europe and the US is centered on Isfahan, where Iran has resumed uranium
conversion activities, which it claims is its right. With a flurry of
diplomatic maneuvers planned, matters are coming to a head, and
Pepe Escobar is the first casualty.
(Sep 1, '05)
WAITING FOR THE MAHDI, Part 2
A vision or a waking dream?
The Shi'ite tradition in Qom teaches that when the world has become
psychologically ready to accept the government of God and when worldly
conditions are ready for truth to prevail, God will then allow Imam Mahdi to
launch his final revolution. In the meantime, fertile minds are educated in
preparation for this worldwide revolution.
(Aug 31, '05)
WAITING FOR THE MAHDI, Part 1
Sistani.Qom: In the wired heart
of Shi'ism
The issue of supremacy among top Shi'ite religious leaders has profound
implications for Iran and Iraq. Is it the almost recluse Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani in Najaf in Iraq, who forced the American superpower to bow to his
wishes? Or is it the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? The
Shi'ite communications center in Qom provides some clues, as Pepe Escobar
reports in the first of two articles from the Iranian holy city.
(Aug 30, '05)
The nuclear rap
It's summer holidays, so what better way for university students to spend a hot
afternoon than protesting outside the French, German and British embassies in
Tehran. Pepe Escobar joins in. (Aug 25, '05)
Iran: Tough talk and temptresses
The contrasts could not be sharper: an army of Angelina Jolie
clones cruising north Tehran's streets and malls, to the thousands gathered at
Tehran University, including the president, to hear the country's Supreme
Leader at Friday prayers laying into the US. Pepe Escobar hits the road
in Iran. (Aug 24, '05)
The Algerian
connection
It is one thing to mouth opposition to the US-led occupation of Iraq, it is
another to allow the US military to use your country as a playground in the
"war on terror". Two Algerian diplomats have paid with their lives at the hands
of an al-Qaeda-linked group for their government adopting such a
position. (Jul 28, '05)
Fighting the uncivil fight
European Union officials, not to mention
Europe-wide public opinion, are starting to confront a very serious question:
how to fight jihad inside the EU without infringing on civil liberties. This is
exactly what Salafi-jihadis want.
(Jul 21, '05)
Self-service
jihad
More and more so-called "white Moors" - white Muslims carrying European Union
passports - are taking jihad training in Chechnya, while "individual jihadis",
without contact with al-Qaeda, are learning the trade of terror on their own
before joining or starting sleeper cells in Europe. (Jul
19, '05)
War comes to the heart of Europe
A new, deadly generation of internationalist jihadis is making Europe its
battleground. It's not only a war against the Western occupiers of Muslim
lands; it's a war for the future of global Islam as the al-Qaeda "nebula"
strives to impose Wahhabi values on the faith. (Jul
14, '05)
Blowback
For the new generation of jihadis, the Anglo-American coalition - as well as
civilians - must live in fear, just as people live in fear in Iraq and
Palestine. Only the US leaving Iraq and an internationally-accepted agreement
between Israelis and Palestinians will end the cycle.
(Jul 11, '05)
Pop music won't change
this world
Billions of people clapping their hands at "the biggest musical event in
history" will not save us from greenhouse gases or rescue Africa from the
guillotine of foreign debt. The G8 is calling the tune, and it appears to be
tone deaf. (Jul 5, '05)
Twelve
more years
Conceding that the "throes" of the Iraqi insurgency could go on for another 12
years, Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld admits that the US is talking with
insurgent leaders. What the leaders have to say, though, is not what Washington
wants to hear. (Jun 27, '05)
The first, not the last throes
The heated hearings in Washington in which Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld came
under withering attack may be just the tip of the iceberg that the Bush
administration's doggedly optimistic line on Iraq is simply not tenable. In
Baghdad, quite literally, the writing is on the wall.
(Jun 24, '05)
Iraq, the new Afghanistan
There was blowback in Afghanistan after the US financed a jihad there against
the Soviet invasion. There is now blowback in Iraq following the US occupation.
And the comparisons between Iraq and basket-case Afghanistan don't end there.
(Jun 23, '05)
The axis of lesser evil
Iran's reformist movement is enthusiastically backing pragmatist Ayatollah Ali
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as the next president, over his hawkish rival.
Neo-conservatives in the US will be disappointed. (Jun
21, '05)
How
much is a hostage worth?
The six-month hostage ordeal of a French journalist and her Iraqi fixer
received little publicity on Islamist websites, and their kidnappers made no
political demands for their release. Which leaves just the "financial" motive.
The French government, though, is respecting an implacable law of silence.
(Jun 15, '05)
Exit strategy: Civil war
Against all odds, a national liberation front is emerging in Iraq comprising
politicians, religious leaders, clan and tribal sheikhs, with a single-minded
agenda: the end of the US-led occupation. Simultaneously, the US is pushing on
with its policy of divide and rule - sectarian fever translated into civil war.
(Jun 9, '05)
Europe's disaster movie
Europe's political elites are in a deep, existential funk. The monumental
crisis created by France and the Netherlands rejecting a proposed European
constitution may spell catharsis or catastrophe. It all hinges on political
will. And visionaries. (Jun 2, '05)
French-fried Europe
The Dutch look set to complete a double blow on Wednesday, following France's
rejection of the proposed European constitution. One might assume the document,
a compromise reached after five years of hard-fought negotiation, is already
six feet under. But there is a plan B - sort of.
(May 31, '05)
Pipelineistan's biggest game
begins
 It's
a law unto itself, a sovereign state 44 meters wide and 1,767 kilometers
long. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, after 10 years of hard
work and $4 billion in funding, is finally open for business. (May
25, '05)
The US's gift to al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda has recently managed to capitalize on major blunders in the United
States's "war on terror", strengthening the anti-US impulse among global,
moderate Muslims and winning legitimacy from leading Islamic scholars. Pepe
Escobar explains how it happened. (May 20,
'05)
'We are a banana republic'
 Paul
Krugman, the Mick Jagger of political/economic punditry, has an opinion on
everything, sweeping across China's rise (and fall?), the "banana republic"
status of the US, Iraq, petrodollars and much more. And, as he tells Pepe
Escobar, a penchant for Thai food. (May
18, '05)
The US and
its 'special' dictator
Even though his US-funded soldiers have killed hundreds of protestors, Uzbek
President Islam Karimov is an essential piece in Washington's great oil and gas
chessboard, as is Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. So you won't see the White House
hammering Karimov, or calling for free elections. (May
16, '05)
From Baghdad
to Brasilia
South America is avidly cultivating much stronger ties with China, Russia and
the Arab world, as seen in this week's Arab-South American summit in Brazil.
The emerging axis is non-aligned, and it's swimming in oil. Washington is
watching closely. (May 11, '05)
Bilderberg strikes again
Over 100 Western movers and shakers - politicians, tycoons, bankers, captains
of industry - have just concluded their secret annual gathering as members of
the exclusive Bilderberg club. Previously they have been known to shape world
affairs. This time is likely to have been no different. (May
9, '05)
Iraq's hostage cabinet
The fatal flaw of Iraq's cabinet is that it is hostage to a big picture it
won't be able to control - the foundations for a new Iraq simply do not exist.
There's anarchy in much of the country, there's little work, and at least six
militias armed, trained and funded by the Pentagon are on the rampage. All the
elements for civil war are in place. (Apr 29, '05)
They shoot journalists, don't
they?
 Italian
secret intelligence agent Nicola Calipari was killed by US fire in Iraq, while
Giuliana Sgrena, an unembedded correspondent, was injured in the same incident.
No one is denying this. Where the
problem arises is over culpability. The US indicates its soldiers followed
standard procedures. Others disagree. (Apr 27,
'05)
It's terror when we say so
Last year in its annual report, the US National Counterterrorism Center listed
175 "significant" terrorist attacks in 2003. This year, the report found a
sharp increase to 624 such attacks for 2004. However, this figure will not be
included when the report is officially released at the end of the month. Why?
Ask Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. (Apr
22, '05)
The shadow Iraqi government
The only way Iraq's transitional government can garner any measure of popular
credibility is to demand a firm deadline for total American withdrawal. This is
what the Shi'ite masses voted for. Yet this is the last thing on the minds of
the White House/Pentagon/Green Zone axis that controls - or will control - the
country.
(Apr 20, '05)
What's behind the new Iraq
The balance of power between Iraq's three main sectarian groups - Shi'ites,
Kurds and Sunnis - has been the biggest stumbling block in forming a new
government. A deal has finally emerged, but this is not the end of the matter,
not by a long way: as before, the stark choice remains - politics or civil war.
(Apr 7, '05)
Looking South for a pope
The Vatican voting South for the next Pope will be
interpreted as a Church privileging social justice and globalization with a
human face. But there are a number of other compelling options.
(Apr 4, '05)
What kind of
revolution is this?
The strange events in Kyrgyzstan do not exactly constitute a classic
revolution. One order has fallen, but a new one has yet to be born - it was
rather "meet the new boss, same as the old boss". For a real revolution, look
elsewhere in the region. (Apr 1,
'05)
The Tulip Revolution
takes root
Compared to its hardcore neighbors, Kyrgyzstan was a paradigm of
democracy. But this will not make the task of the disparate bunch of new
leaders any easier to bring stability and economic order to the country. One
thing is clear, though: the Tulip Revolution will be propagated by the Bush
administration as the first "spread of freedom and democracy" success story in
Central Asia. (Mar 25, '05)
Shocked and awed into 'freedom'
Two years on, there's no government in Iraq because of the Kirkuk tinderbox,
where the Kurds want it all. Sectarianism is on the rise, security is a joke.
But from a strategic Washington viewpoint, these issues are all minor.(Mar
21, '05)
Iraq, IRA-style
Influential echelons of the resistance in Iraq are actively engaged
in the political unification of an array of disparate groups to solidify their
support among the Sunni population: this is like an Iraqi version of the Irish
Republican Army polishing a Mesopotamian Sinn Fein. Unaddressed, though, is the
Kurdish problem. (Mar 10, '05)
Bush does Brussels
President George W Bush's visit to Brussels was
carefully coordinated to convey the impression that he needs Europe to fulfill
his mission for the world. But the European Union was not falling for that
sucker punch. (Feb 23, '05)
The trip goes on forever
Even in his final days, when he described himself as "an elderly dope fiend
living out in the wilderness", Hunter Thompson kept his extreme conceptual
coherence, his certitude that Power cannot, could never be trusted. The
self-described proud patriot's life-long quest for the American Dream ended in
suicide on Sunday, but the good Dr Gonzo remains, to many, "strong like a
river". (Feb 22, '05)
From Baghdad to Beirut
What many had feared - the "Lebanonization" of Iraq, bringing
back the tragic memories of the Lebanese civil war of 1975-1990 - might be
forced, with the assassination of Rafik Hariri, to happen in reverse: the
Iraqification of Lebanon. (Feb 16, '05)
Before the breakup,
the breakdown
The Iraqi election results don't really illustrate who are the real
winners and losers: there are currently too many variables and competing
interests to give an accurate picture. One thing, though, is crystal-clear
- the Sunni Iraqi resistance vs US occupation will continue.
(Feb 14, '05)
The Shi'ite's Faustian
pact
Shi'ite leaders don't want the American military to leave, just yet, for fear
of a bloodbath. This suits the US, which will consolidate military bases, and
do something about the country's oil riches, possibly even privatize the
industry. Yet the Shi'ite leadership will find it almost impossible to maintain
public support for any length of time without telling the Americans to leave.
(Feb 10, '05)
Why the US will not leave Iraq
Iraq's elections will see Shi'ites taking power in the Arab world for the first
time in 14 centuries. The Shi'ites' premier electoral promise - later reneged -
was to negotiate a total American withdrawal, so the US will be in no hurry for
a swift pullout. But as long as the US stays, the resistance will become even
bloodier. (Jan 31, '05)
It's celebration time
Shi'ites, the Pentagon, the Sunni Iraqi resistance, the rest of the world, even
Henry Kissinger; they all have reason to celebrate Sunday's elections in Iraq,
and all of their reasons are different. But there can only be one winner - and
it won't be democracy. (Jan 28, '05)
Vote or no vote, we
will kill you
The key issue after the Iraqi elections
will be how to kick out the Americans. It's also the only window of opportunity
for the future Shi'ite government to woo moderate Sunnis, and the only way to
isolate the guerrilla resistance. But the resistance has time. It has loads of
weapons, plenty of financing and thousands of members, and any new government
will be seen as a mortal enemy. (Jan 26,
'05)
The
hottest label: China chic
Forget the shopworn "made in China" label
- make way for China chic. High-quality textiles are now designed by hip
Chinese designers, produced by skilled artisans and sold by China, with profits
repatriated to the Middle Kingdom. The message: just give us a little time, and
we will also swamp you with our cool new designs.
(Jan 18, '05)
First we vote, then we
kick you out
As the January 30 elections near, the majority of
Iraqis have one thing on their minds: get the US occupiers out - and get them
out fast. At the moment, however, the risk of post-election civil war is
stronger than ever, with various factions refusing to sit back and let the
Shi'ites take control of the country. (Dec
23, '04)
COMMENT
Evildoers, here
we come
The road to Syria is the key node in the George W
Bush/neo-conservative roadmap for a new Middle East. Along this road there are
likely to be several detours, with Iran, Saudi Arabia and North Korea singled
out for special treatment. (Dec 16, '04)
The grand elector
Sistani
When Iraq was fighting British colonialism in 1920, the vanguard of
the armed resistance was Shi'ite. So the British installed the Sunnis in power
- where they have remained ever since. Now the situation is reversed, and the
Shi'ites, guided by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, want to get their hands on
the power. (Dec 9, '04)
From Guernica to
Fallujah
 The
counterinsurgency blueprint for Iraq is a 182-page field manual distributed to
each and every soldier by the Pentagon. Many of the soldiers appear not to have
read the instructions. And now the resistance in Fallujah bears strong
resemblance to that of the people of Guernica, the Basque capital, who opposed
the Spanish dictator Franco in 1937. (Dec
1, '04)
The Sunni-Shi'ite power play
Under the current US-imposed timetable for Iraq, the Shi'ites
will be in power following elections scheduled for next January. This will
leave a Shi'ite-dominated government to deal with a widespread Sunni resistance
movement with only a ragged bunch of guerrilla-infiltrated Iraqi security
forces. (Nov 19, '04)
Counterinsurgency
run amok
In counterinsurgency, success means destroying the
environment, physical and social, that supports the enemy. Take away the
"water" and the "fish" will die. This strategy led to indiscriminate bombings
in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. This is what's happening in Fallujah. But it
won't work, because the "fish" are developing more complex, distributed network
structures. (Nov 17, '04)
Masters of war
The US has declared that Fallujah has been "liberated". But the city is
celebrating with no cries of joy - with no cries at all: only with the stench
of tons of explosives, and the stench of decomposing bodies.(Nov
15, '04)
Collective punishment,
regrettable necessity
Fallujah was always defiant towards Saddam Hussein. Now the US has reduced its
civilian population to a bunch of "insurgents". The rationale invoked is
"regrettable necessity". What is never mentioned is the real objective:
collective punishment. (Nov 12, '04)
A thousand Fallujahs
Five years ago the Russians totally destroyed Grozny, the Chechen
capital, yet today Chechen guerrillas are still trapping Russian troops in a
living hell there. The same scenario will be replayed in Fallujah - and
countless towns and cities across Iraq. (Nov
11, '04)
Satan
hides in a hospital
One of the first targets of the US offensive into Fallujah was the
general hospital, which has been secured. Other targets include those used to
spread information, such as telephones. But the resistance fighters have been
preparing for this onslaught for months. They have a battle plan, and it
doesn't end in Fallujah. (Nov 10, '04)
 The
real fury of Fallujah
The Pentagon is selling Operation Phantom Fury as a battle of good
against evil to root out "terrorists" in the "militant stronghold" of Fallujah.
Yet there could not be a more tragic exercise in futility - to destroy Fallujah
in order to "save" it. This is the road for civil war.
(Nov 9, '04)
Value-added victory
It was a remarkable feat to convince the poor working class and the
struggling lower middle class to vote for tax breaks for billionaires. How to
fool them? By promoting "moral values".
(Nov 4, '04)
Damn politics, let's
dance
Among many surprises, the widely sung-and-danced-to youth vote never
materialized. And President George W Bush won the popular vote by a handsome
margin. This is a neo-conservative dream turned reality: four more years, and
possibly four more wars. (Nov 3,
'04)
COMMENT
In God - or
reality - we trust
Because the stakes are so high, this is a world election by any
means: if George W Bush is re-elected, it will send a strong signal that
Americans support the neo-conservative agenda, and all that it entails, a la
Iraq. (Nov 2, '04)
Bush or Kerry, Osama's
unmoved
By re-establishing his preeminence, and changing his rhetoric, Osama
bin Laden makes it clear that the target is not America per se, but recruiting
the Muslim masses for jihad. A George W Bush victory will not change this. Nor
will a John Kerry victory. (Nov 1, '04)
American rebel vs
American al-Qaeda
Unleashed only one week before the US presidential election,
Eminem's "Mosh" is a stunning piece of political hip-hop. But even as this
millionaire white-trash rapper does his bit toward regime change in the White
House, another video emerges, this one featuring an alleged al-Qaeda operative
vowing, in English, that "the streets of America will run red with blood".
(Oct 29, '04)
How Bush blew it in
Tora Bora
The US presidential election is less than a week away and still no
October surprise named Osama bin Laden. Yet even if bin Laden does surface
- captured and exhibited "Saddam-in-chains" style - the real surprise took
place in Tora Bora way back in November 2001, when the Bush administration let
him slip through its fingers. (Oct 26,
'04)
Precision-strike
democracy
People cannot believe that precision strikes against civilian
neighborhoods are a persuasive weapon conducive to winning hearts and minds in
Iraq and establishing democracy. The resistance, meanwhile, is succeeding in
mobilizing the urban masses, Sunni and Shi'ite, against the occupation.
(Oct 21, '04)
Zarqawi and al-Qaeda,
unlikely bedfellows
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's reported swearing of his jihadi group's
allegiance to al-Qaeda is mystifying. The al-Qaeda nucleus is a mix of hardcore
Saudi Wahhabis and the Egyptians of Islamic Jihad. Zarqawi's group contains
Jordanians, Palestinians and Syrians, and they are Salafis, Islamic purists.
True or false, though, the effects will be felt in Fallujah.
(Oct 19, '04)
Zarqawi - Bush's man
for all seasons
From a two-bit thug into an overnight international terrorist with a
finger in every pie, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been thrust into the
limelight through the many emails, threats, communiques and grisly videos
attributed to him, especially in Iraq. The "Zarqawi" myth is certainly bigger
than the man. But this suits the Bush administration just fine.
(Oct 14, '04)
Deconstructing the war
on terror
Jacques Derrida, the last survivor of the fabulous generation of
1960s French thinkers, was the master of the concept of "deconstruction", which
can be defined as a guerrilla attack on a dominant system of thought. Before he
died last week, Derrida deconstructed "the war on terror", a concept that
obscures current reality and hobbles our ability to fend off the next
"September 11". (Oct
13, '04)
Hand it to
the warlords
Hamid Karzai, with his US backing and
Pashtun roots, is favored to win Saturday's presidential elections in
Afghanistan. Local warlords, though, with the immense power they wield over
their fiefdoms and voters, cannot be overlooked. Deals, therefore, are already
being made, even though such arrangements tend to backfire, with disastrous
results. (Oct 8, '04)
That split screen
In a "debate" designed to stifle any real debate of
any real issues, some US networks decided to brighten things up a split screen.
And there they were: one candidate playing to one camera, while his opponent
let his true persona show on the other. So we saw the choice facing American
voters: do they want to live in reality, or seek refuge in a reality show?
(Oct 1, '04)
Why al-Qaeda
is winning
As nihilistic as it may be, al-Qaeda is a major success: three years after
September 11, it is a global brand and a global movement. This brand does not
have much to do with Islam, but it has everything to do with the globalization
of the fight against imperialism. And imperialism is widely seen as having its
center in Washington. (Sep 10, '04)
In God, and terror, we trust
Be afraid. Be very afraid. That is the essence of
the Republican platform for "four more years" of the president of permanent
war. Oh, but don't ask how the "war on terra" is actually going, with the
1,000th US soldier about to die in Iraq, which along with Afghanistan is in
chaos; because God, and Karl Rove's dirty tricks, are on George Bush's
side. (Aug 31, '04)
Oil in troubled waters
As oil's price slides towards $50 a barrel, it is
now 136% more expensive than before September 11, 2001. Yet demand, especially
in the US, China and India, surges. OPEC - controlling about half of the
world's oil exports - has promised to do something, as has Saudi Arabia, but
they can't deliver. Neither can Iraq, where US plans for a world of cheap oil
started to go all wrong. (Aug 23, '04)
A unifying factor across Iraq
Inside Iraq, Sunni and Shi'ite alike condemn the United States offensive in
Najaf as a "bloodbath", but the longer the fighting continues, "the image of
[Muqtada] being the only one capable of unifying the country beyond communal
divisions" will grow even stronger. (Aug
17, '04)
Barack Obama rules, OK
Barack Obama, an Illinois state legislator, stole the show on the second night
of the Democratic National Convention in Boston with a speech of rare
brilliance. He's not a uniter, not a divider, he's the ultimate transcender. He
is also black, and exactly what the Republicans don't need right now.
(Jul 29, '04)
Clinton
clinches the deal
He's still The Big Dog: in his inimitable style, former US president Bill
Clinton managed to sell to Democratic Party faithful the stiff senator from
Massachusetts, John Kerry, as a strong leader worthy of the White House. But
missing from the Clinton pitch was Iraq, because, unlike the Iraqi resistance,
Democrats - including Kerry - don't have any more idea what to do about it than
George W Bush. (Jul 28, '04)
The new
Saddam, without a moustache
In Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, dubbed "Saddam without a moustache", Washington
has exactly the man it wants in Iraq. But such 19th century-style colonialism
gambits are doomed - just as they were in the past. (Jul
15, '04)
The Islamic emirate of Fallujah
By intimidation, by force of arms and with full support of the mosques,
Fallujah is now a haven of order and security in Iraq. Americans troops are
out, as are foreigners. Strict Islamic law is in, and the gun-toting leaders
see their city as a model for the rest of the country.
(Jul 14, '04)
Click here for
earlier articles
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THE ROVING EYE
An extreme traveler, Pepe's nose for news has taken him to all parts of the 
globe. He was in Afghanistan and interviewed the military leader of the
anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, Ahmad Shah Masoud, a couple of weeks before his
assassination (Masoud:
From warrior to statesman , Sep 11, 2001). Two weeks before
September 11, 2001, while Pepe was in the tribal areas of Pakistan, ATol
published his prophetic piece,
Get Osama! Now! Or else ... (Aug 30, 2001). Pepe was one of the first
journalists to reach Kabul after the Taliban's retreat, and more recently he
has explored and reported from Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, US and China.
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ATol
Specials
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Sinoroving
Escobar in China
(an ongoing series)
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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The pulse of
pre-election America
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Escobar treks from western
China to the Caspian Sea
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Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
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