SPENGLER

THE ROVING EYE

Sunni secessionist fears as US troops leave
As American troops prepare to leave Iraq in a few weeks, cracks in the security and political situation are widening. Baghdad claims sectarian divisions could explode into a repeat of the violence of five years ago, while two western provinces - including Salahuddin, from where former despot Saddam Hussein hailed - have requested more autonomy, with many Sunnis feeling sidelined by policies against Saddam's Ba'ath party. - Abeer Mohammed (Dec 8, '11)

Where are the poets of the Arab Spring?
Legendary Syrian poet Nizar Qabbani bemoaned an Arab world "staring blankly into the skies, like idiots", while Egyptian and Iraqi intellectuals bravely challenged 20th-century dictators through subtle theater and comedy. Without a Hosni Mubarak or Saddam Hussein hate figure, the generation that inherits the Arab Spring may view the literary legacy as outdated and irrelevant. However, this only invites the forces of oppression to regroup. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 8, '11)

Iran prepares to strike back
Increasingly aggressive responses to bombings and assassinations inside Iran that were almost certainly directed by foreign agents and which killed scores of people suggest the rising ire of the Iranian government, the political ascendancy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and most ominously, the likelihood of sharper hostilities in the region. This could include encouraging Shi'ite uprisings in the Gulf, attacking United States personnel, and a wave of bombings against Israel and its US and Saudi allies. - Brian M Downing (Dec 7, '11)

Bonn 0 + Iran
From transition to transfiguration is a more apt description of where fragile Afghanistan is heading, with intense regional rivalries, exhausted foreign donors, internal corruption and a sustained insurgency plaguing the country with violence and fear. In this complex situation, the United States and Iran - both in attendance at the Bonn summit on Afghanistan - have every reason to put aside their differences and open a new dialogue on regional security. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 6, '11)

'Blow-fly zone' takes hold over Syria
The Russian Navy's Mediterranean drills and deliveries of ship-killer missiles to Damascus are an obvious statement to the West: Syria is not Libya. However, the deployments are also "blow-flies" sniffing out President Bashar al-Assad's lifespan. As the Syrian coastline bristles with Russian hardware, the Kremlin is eyeing its first strategic move outside Soviet-era borders in two decades. - John Helmer (Dec 6, '11)

SPENGLER
Are Jews better off in Israel?
Israel's immigration ministry stopped running television ads exhorting Israelis living in the United States to come home after American Jewish organizations complained. American Jews should reconsider their umbrage. As indolence and self-deception takes hold, Jews of all shadings in America are falling away, failing to bring enough children in the world, and failing to raise them as Jews, while Israelis run circles around their co-religionists. (Dec 5, '11)

Opportunity shunned in Iran-UK crisis
As European Union foreign ministers meet to consider the same diplomatic squeeze on Iran as the British government's, some of the nations would be better leveraging strong economic ties to gain protection of their interests in the Islamic Republic. A collective offensive emulating the United States policy of containment is more likely, even as relations could be rebuilt if London were to end its unbounded hostility. - Kaveh Afrasiabi (Dec 1, '11)

Whodunit on the Lebanon-Israel border
Rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel have put the Israel Defense Forces on high alert and raised fears the incident could swiftly escalate. The attack did minimal damage, but with the little-known Abdullah Azzam Brigade, rather than Hezbollah, claiming responsibility, it raised questions over exactly who is stirring the volatile border situation amid the Middle East's current turmoil. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 1, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
The shadow war in Syria
Feel free to bask in the glow of yet another mercenary paradise as the stage is set for Target Syria, aka Libya 2.0. Trigger-happy Libyans formerly known as rebels have already shipped to Syria via Turkey, where the symbiosis of Western and Gulf states has set up a command center on the border. The pressure is relentless for the "civil war" prophesy of United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to come to pass. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 1, '11)

Tehran invokes revolutionary fervor
As the US gathers its flock, including its most reliable sycophant Britain, to move against the Iranian sphere via regime change in Syria, Tehran has taken the gloves off. The downgrading of ties with London moved with such speed that it is obvious it was authorized at the highest levels, as any further attempts at a soft line with the West have been rejected as futile. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 30, '11)

Iran delivers major blow to the CIA
Iran's claim last week to have arrested 12 spies from the Central Intelligence Agency has been grudgingly confirmed by United States officials, suggesting a major CIA defeat if not a full-blown disaster. ATol sources in Tehran confirm the embarrassing outcome is the result of a "scattergun" approach by the agency that has seen it approach virtually any Iranian who potentially had useful information. - Mahan Abedin (Nov 30, '11)

Iranians ignore sanctions pinch
Iranian consumers appear unaware that their country is supposed to be gripped by international sanctions, with Tehran's bazaars full of shoppers keen to buy the latest gadgets and the increasing number of city restaurants full of diners willing to tip generously. - Jason Rezaian (Nov 30'11)

Saboteurs flying under Iran radar
Iran's rhetorical response to the West's provocations over its nuclear program has been tough enough, but in another arena of psychological warfare - sabotage - it is lagging behind. As the list of "unexplained" explosions and assassinations grows, Tehran's seemingly remarkable tolerance suggests it's unaware how such limited military assaults prepare the ground for full-blown war. - Mahan Abedin (Nov 29, '11)

Iran gets a mini-break - in Bahrain
A 500-page independent report authorized by the Bahraini government into handling of the mass protests there earlier this year found no evidence linking the demonstrations to Iran. That will give a welcome respite to Tehran, and give it leverage against Saudi Arabia over Riyadh's involvement in Syria. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 28, '11)

Will there be another Arab Spring in 2061?
Sixty-two years after Cairo tried to snuff out the Muslim Brotherhood with a targeted assassination, the movement stands on the threshold of power in Egypt, while its brand of political Islam is rising throughout the Arab World. The Brotherhood of today seems more aware of the need to be democratic, but it faces the same temptations that corrupted and eventually tore down Arab nationalism. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 28, '11)

Moving towards a military coup in Syria?
The increasingly isolated political and economic position of the Bashar al-Assad government, underlined by the Arab League's sanctions, and the specter of heightened Sunni-Shi'ite violence could lead Syria's armed forces to abandon their previously solid support. However, like many dictatorships the Assads came to power through multiple coup d'etats, so Damascus has safeguards in place to restrain ambitious colonels. - Brian M Downing (Nov 28, '11)

Egypt as crucible of Middle East tensions
The timing of this week's Tahrir Square violence, just days before Egypt's elections and as Syria's uprising nears a climax, suggests internal and external forces are at play. As a visage of leaderless resistance is stripped away to reveal the military's and Islamists' role in Hosni Mubarak's overthrow, suspicions are raised that Iran is using links with the Muslim Brotherhood to instigate riots that distract from its ally's troubles in Damascus. - Victor Kotsev (Nov 23, '11)

Turkish lira on the slide
Turkey's debt rating has been upgraded and industrial production is outpacing expectations. Yet the Turkish currency is sliding ever more steeply and the stock market is down almost 25% this year. Inflation and the financial mess in the neighborhood are taking their toll. - Robert M Cutler (Nov 23, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
That rocky road to Damascus
As they examine the regional chessboard and the formidable array of forces aligned against them, the Iranians must face, simultaneously, superpower Washington, bomb-happy North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, nuclear power Israel, all Sunni Arab absolute monarchies, and even Sunni-majority, secular Turkey. As Tehran sees it, what's really going on regarding Syria is a "humanitarian" cover for a complex anti-Shi'ite and anti-Iran operation. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 23, '11)

US raises pressure on Iran
President Barack Obama's declaration of Iran as a "primary money laundering concern", and new curbs on the country's petrochemical sector, may not satisfy critics in Washington who want a bar on foreign financial institutions that carry out transactions with the Central Bank of Iran from dealings with any US bank. - Barbara Slavin (Nov 22, '11)

Turkey is 'biggest winner' of Arab Spring
Turkey played the "most constructive" role in the Arab Spring, according to a regional survey, while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as the most admired leader by far among Arabs. President Barack Obama's popularity slightly rose, but less Arabs see Iran as a nuclear threat and America's desirability as the world's sole superpower was matched by Pakistan's. - Jim Lobe (Nov 22, '11)

Turkey and the Syrian 'Abyss'
The Syrian uprising, the harsh government crackdown and the growing militarization of the opposition - all leading the country down the road to full-fledged civil war - have forced Turkey to abandon its "zero-problems" foreign policy. A now outspoken Ankara is trying to ensuring a position of leadership for itself in any future scenario faced by Syria. - Ramzy Baroud (Nov 21, '11)

Ex-inspector rejects IAEA Iran bomb claim
Former chief weapons inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency Robert Kelley has rejected its claim that Iran built a nuclear test chamber, insisting the supposed vessel could never contain such a high-intensity blast. His rebuttal tallies with denials from the Russian scientist allegedly involved and evidence that Vyacheslav Danilenko's work on nanodiamonds wasn't related to nuclear technology. - Gareth Porter (Nov 21, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
Exposed: US press 'freedom'
Hypocrisy is writ large over the treatment of Sam Husseini, whose behavior as an actual journalist with tough questioning of the House of Saud got him suspended from the National Press Club in Washington. Husseini didn't play by lap-dog rules that dictate how corporate media should fawn to American allies and bear teeth at its enemies to keep tidbits dropping from the establishment table. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 21, '11)

US creates an Iranian albatross
Iran has reacted sharply to a joint United States and Saudi Arabia bid for a United Nations resolution accusing it violating diplomatic treaties and calling on Tehran to cooperate in ongoing investigations into shaky allegations of a terror plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington. Attempts to pursue a pseudo-legal case of terrorism and to use its influence to target a rival state at the UN could backfire on Washington. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 17, '11)

Israel strives to impress
Speculation that Israel was behind an explosion at an Iranian missile base won't vex Tel Aviv. It ups the ante on recent rhetoric amid war games and media leaks on enhanced military capabilities, all timed to threaten Tehran's nuclear program. The Israeli show of force is Tel Aviv's way of telling the world to do something about Iran - or else. It also serves to warn enemies against attacking Israel if limited hostilities break out in Syria or elsewhere in the region. - Victor Kotsev (Nov 17, '11)

Bashar's fate in his own hands
The Assad family has been frequently compared to the Corleones of the Godfather books and movies. Bashar al-Assad has been likened to Fredo, the weakest and least intelligent son of Mafia boss Vito Corleone. Now the family is relying on Bashar for its survival. - Barbara Slavin (Nov 16, '11)

SYRIA ON THE BRINK
The beginning of the end
The regime of President Bashar al-Assad faces a hopeless dilemma. Continued or still harsher repression will lead to more defections from the army, stronger opposition and greater likelihood of foreign intervention. On the other hand, easing repression will be seen as a sign of weakness and embolden the opposition. The end in Damascus is unlikely to be far off. - Brian M Downing (Nov 16, '11)

Syria uprising falls victim to power plays
The Arab League's machinations on Syria underline how greater powers - after seeing the protests had failed - have hijacked the bloody uprising to further their geopolitical objectives. As the West takes a harder line and as the Russian camp solidifies opposition to a Libyan scenario, neither the Syrian opposition nor its government has the country's fate in their hands. - Ramzy Baroud (Nov 15, '11)

Maliki frets over 'Iraqi Spring'
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's attempts to crack an alleged Ba'athist coup plot have seen hundreds - mostly Sunnis - arrested, provoking Salahuddin province to declare itself an autonomous "safehouse" from Baghdad's "religiously-driven, Iran-backed officials". With the province's break-up plan constitutionally viable and very agreeable to Saudi Arabia's new crown prince, perhaps Maliki should tread more carefully. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 14, '11)

Iran reels from twin blows
The explosions at a military base that killed 17 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, including a key figure in Iran's missile program, and the death in mysterious circumstances of the son of a former leading Guards commander might simply be coincidence. Nevertheless, the mood among many Iranians is that the country's enemies are now engaged in full-scale psychological warfare. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 14, '11)

Tehran still sees a way out
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has denounced the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog as a United States pawn and vowed not to retreat from the nation's nuclear program "one iota". All the same, Tehran remains enamored with a step-by-step approach that would see it expand its cooperation with the IAEA in return for "rewards". - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 10, '11)

'Soviet nuclear scientist' a rough diamond
The International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran made mention of a former Soviet nuclear weapons scientist helping Iran construct a detonation system that could be used for a nuclear weapon. In fact, the expert, who is not named in the IAEA report but has been identified as Vyacheslav Danilenko, is a top specialist in the world in the production of nanodiamonds by explosives. - Gareth Porter (Nov 10, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
Do the bomb Iran shuffle
Hardcore neo-con practitioners of the Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine are hyperventilating at the possibility of a successful attack on Iran reshuffling all the cards in the "arc of instability" from the Middle East to Central Asia. As the warmongers leer at the targets in the pack, Iran is too enticing. All they have to do is convince President Barack Obama he won't be the joker if he fights another war. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 10, '11)

'Who lost Iraq' debate fizzles
Two weeks after the United States announced the withdrawal of all its remaining troops from Iraq by the end of next month, a familiar clutch of neo-conservative hawks and prominent Republicans are blaming President Barack Obama for "losing" the country to Iran. For now, though, the public, preoccupied with the dismal state of the economy, seems more relieved than worried by the planned withdrawal. - Jim Lobe (Nov 9, '11)

Nuclear watchdog will want answers
The IAEA's assessment on Iran should provide ample new ammunition for the agency and the international community to press Tehran for answers and for improved access to its nuclear facilities. There is no indication, however, that Iran has actually built a nuclear weapon. - Barbara Slavin (Nov 9, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
A bad case of nuclear Iranophobia
A leaked report by the International Atomic Energy Agency expresses "serious concerns" about Iranian research and development "specific to nuclear weapons", even though the United Nations watchdog has no independent means to confirm the enormous mass of information - over 1,000 pages - it received from more than 10 countries over eight years. What's left is the possibility of even more sanctions on Tehran - although Russia and China won't buy into this. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 9, '11)

Arab Spring confounds Iran's opposition
A letter from veteran Iranian dissident Ebrahim Yazdi to the victorious Tunisian Islamist party al-Nahda (Renaissance) can be interpreted as official correspondence by the loyal opposition inside Iran with the triumphant forces of the Arab Spring. However, by implicitly setting out the 1979 Iranian revolution as the model for all revolts in the past year, Yazdi reveals similar ignorance to Tehran's ruling elites by supposing that the Arab Islamist movements would put intrusive Islamization above their commitment to democracy. - Mahan Abedin (Nov 9, '11)

Israel mulls US support for Iran strike
Rising speculation over an Israeli strike on Iran in the lead-up to a potentially damning United Nations report on Tehran's nuclear ambitions pressurizes the United States into re-examining its options. In considering an assault, Tel Aviv can rightly assess that that the depth of US commitment to Israel's security has never been so forcefully demonstrated as under the Barack Obama administration. - Pierre Klochendler (Nov 8, '11)

Turkey admires Tunisia's secular facelift
Early signs that Tunisia's new ruling party, Ennahda, will emulate Turkey's model of  secularism in governance has boosted efforts by Ankara to harness the momentum of the Arab Spring. Although Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu abhors the term neo-Ottomanism, a look at the region now shows his country as pivotal in the new "Greater Middle East" taking shape. - Jacques N Couvas (Nov 8, '11)

Mr Amano goes to Washington
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, is in Washington ahead of a new report on Iran's nuclear program that is being released into the less-than-rarefied air of  disinformation. Not since 2002-2003, when United States officials willingly lied to the world community about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, has there been such a deafening noise surrounding an IAEA country report. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 7, '11)

Israel sends out loud warning to Iran
The Israeli government's hints that it is preparing to strike Iran have been in noisy contrast to its traditionally secretive approach to dangerous and controversial operations. The threats and military exercises are either a bluff designed to corner Tehran as the United Nations prepares a potentially damning appraisal of its nuclear ambitions, or a counter to Syrian threats to "burn the region". - Victor Kotsev (Nov 4, '11)

Small US-Iran step on a long road
The attendance this week of United States and Iranian officials at an international conference on Afghanistan is a small yet significant step in confidence-building. This sets the stage for a strong Iranian presence at the upcoming international conference on Afghanistan in Germany. Dangers still lurk, though, as war rhetoric mounts. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 4, '11)

Syria agrees to Arab League plan
The Syrian government has accepted several measures suggested by the Arab League aimed at halting violence in the country that has claimed an estimated 3,000 lives since March, including the removal of tanks from the streets and the release of about 70,000 political prisoners. (Nov 3, '11)

Hezbollah's Nasrallah walks a tight rope
Hezbollah leader in Lebanon Hassan Nasrallah's firm support for Arab Spring rebels in Egypt, Libya and Bahrain has been in sharp contrast to his silence over the bloody Syrian protests. His refusal to condemn long-time allies in Damascus has disillusioned those on Syria's anti-regime street who saw Nasrallah as a social, political and military hero. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 1, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
The Pentagon-Arab Spring love story
The Arab counter-revolution is stronger than ever - led by the House of Saud and its monarchy minions at the Gulf Cooperation Council. Their most precious ally is the Pentagon, as further militarization of the Persian Gulf - especially via more boots on the ground in Kuwait, and more warships - is being sold as a response to "a collapse of security in Iraq or a military confrontation with Iran". - Pepe Escobar (Nov 1, '11)

Disorder the order of the day in Gaza
It seems that the weekend flare-up in the area of the Gaza Strip, which claimed the lives of at least 14 people, is largely over or will be over within days. As a whole, though, Gaza and southern Israel have been destabilized by the chaos in the Sinai Peninsula following the Arab Spring, partly an effect of internal Egyptian instability, and partly due to a massive inflow of arms from Libya. - Victor Kotsev (Oct 31, '11)

West's Spring lacks focus
While the Arab protester could cry out for democracy, those in the West are left with less inspiring rhetoric. Perhaps the Western protesters need a form of inspiration more familiar to their Arab counterparts. If the authorities seek to make an example of some individuals to end the protests, they will create martyrs. That could be the factor that transforms the discontent into something more focussed and urgent. - Dafydd Taylor (Oct 31, '11)

NATO settles down in Libya
The Libyan experience is the first test case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's new "strategic concept", which turned the alliance into a new international security presence capable and willing to intervene in global "hotspots" with or without a mandate from the United Nations. Thus, while technically NATO operations cease on October 31, nothing actually changes on the ground. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 31, '11)

Iran debates shift to parliamentary system
A casual hint from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the "presidential system" might in the distant future give way to a parliamentary system has sparked intensive debate among politicians in Tehran. Outsiders who seize on the comment as a sign of hostility towards presidential incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad are out of touch with the current mood inside Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 27, '11)

Saudis weigh retaliation for Iran plot
Saudi Arabia's swift vows to avenge the alleged Iranian plot to assassinate its United States ambassador suggest Riyadh will put into place several retaliatory strategies. Saturating the oil market with cheap oil or backing oppressed Sunnis in Iran are options to destabilize Tehran. But for real muscle, the Saudis will rely on US assistance. - Hossein Aryan (Oct 27, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
Real wimps go to Tehran via Baghdad
No matter how many "rightsized" United States boots remain on Iraqi ground after the purported withdrawal at the end of the year, the "how to nail Iran" gambit looms large. One neo-conservative plan - and is it that unlikely? - would have Americans used as bait for an Israeli attack. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 26, '11)

Iran sanctions could hurt West
Proposed new curbs on Iran's central bank are the focus of a European tour by David Cohen, the United States official responsible for overseeing sanctions against Iran in the wake of the alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador on US soil. The result could lead to higher oil prices, which would hurt the West. - Golnaz Esfandiari (Oct 26, '11)

America's secret drone empire
Whether desolate airstrips or sophisticated command and control centers, American drone bases are the backbone of a new robotic way of war and the latest remote-controlled arm of the United States' power projection. Most of the 60 or so facilities that increasingly dot the planet according to "evolving mission needs" have remained uncounted and remarkably anonymous - until now. - Nick Turse (Oct 25, '11)

COMMENT
House of Saud risks oblivion
The demise of the heir to the Saudi Arabian throne vividly portrays the geriatric and dying face of a regime weighed down by inertia, corruption and the toxic impact of reactionary Wahhabism. That Saudi citizens touched by the Arab Spring may one day be ready to clamor for more political rights must make the dinosaurian rulers in the House of Saud fearful of extinction. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 25, '11)

US pulls ambassador out of Syria
American ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who has publicly backed protesters challenging the rule of Bashar al-Assad, has been called back to the United States amid concerns for his safety generated by what Washington calls a Syrian government "smear campaign". Damascus has also reportedly summoned its Washington envoy home. (Oct 25, '11)

SPENGLER
Hidden blessings for US in Iraq pullout
Washington's decision not to keep United States troops in Iraq after Christmas seems a blow to US prestige in the Middle East, but withdrawal offers America an opportunity to shake off an "invader" image and burdensome war costs while still shaping events in the region through diplomacy. Given Iraq's fissures and complexities, the formidable tasks of restoring its independence and countering Iranian influence are US goals best pursued from afar. - Brian M Downing (Oct 24, '11)

A Saudi game of musical chairs
With the death of Crown Prince Sultan Ibn Abdul-Aziz, Saudi Arabia has lost its 86-year-old heir to the throne. The king's younger brother Prince Nayef, 78, this week is likely to be named successor in a lineage of first generation Saudi royals whose reigns are likely to be short-lived due to advanced age and poor health. As the crown is passed on, stability and reforms may slow to a dangerous pace amid momentous change elsewhere in the Middle East. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 24, '11)

CHAN AKYA
The two sides of
Pax Americana
President Barack Obama's Iraq announcement marks the beginning of the end of Pax Americana. By retreating from the Middle East in the midst of what could be politely called a stalemate, the US may be relinquishing its position as the only country in the world that actually bothers to hunt down those who hurt or kill its citizens. (Oct 24, '11)

Is modern science
Biblical or Greek?
A red line can be drawn from the Hebrew Bible to the higher mathematics and physics of the modern world, where it remains a force in science despite the best efforts of rationalists and materialists to send it into exile. The Greeks abhorred infinity, while the Hebrews wondered at the infinitude of creation and human limitation. With due honor to the great achievements of the Greeks, modernity began at Mount Sinai. (Oct 24, '11)

Iranian plot recalls deterrence strategy
Rather than an Iranian plot to assassinate a Saudi ambassador, the United States may have uncovered a broader plan to gather intelligence on multiple Saudi targets to prepare retaliatory strikes for an Israeli or US attack on Iran. Historic parallels and official evidence suggest Iranian suspicions that Riyadh would lend its airspace for such an assault saw Tehran reactivate a tested monitoring strategy. - Gareth Porter (Oct 24, '11)

Plot may be part of Iran power struggle
Numerous reasons why Iran would never use a Mexican drugs cartel to assassinate a Saudi ambassador on United States soil makes Washington's allegations appear fabricated, but an increasingly fraught internal struggle in Tehran could motivate such a high-risk strategy. Faced with an increasingly assertive government, clerical rulers could be displaying their notorious skills in bluff and strategic maneuvering. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 21, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
A peek at the new Libya
Welcome to the new Libya. Islamist militias will turn the lives of Libyan women into a living hell. Hundreds of thousands of Sub-Saharan Africans - those who could not escape - will be ruthlessly persecuted. Libya's natural wealth will be plundered. That collection of anti-aircraft missiles appropriated by Islamists will be a supremely convincing reason for the "war on terror" in northern Africa to become eternal. There will be blood. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 21, '11)

The Green Book's final chapter
The roots of Muammar Gaddafi's undoing lay not in the fall of either Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia or Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Nor was it the slaughter of protesters that ignited the battle for the army barracks in Benghazi that kicked off the February 17 revolution. The catalyst for the end of the "Mad Dog's" rule began 15 years ago with an event little-known outside of Libya - the massacre of over 1,200 inmates at Tripoli's Abu Salim prison. - Derek Henry Flood (Oct 21, '11)

The 'great game' in Syria
The West sees the Syria "game" as a natural successor to its purported success in Libya and as key to a grand refashioning of the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia sees an overthrow in Damascus as striking at the heart of nemesis Iran. However, as the regime refuses to collapse and the opposition council stutters, the allies could be tempted into mobilizing forces of radicalization that will likely return to haunt them. - Alastair Crooke (Oct 21, '11)

Embattled Iran on ideological offensive
Despite Iran's skill at deploying soft power to advance regional interests, its ideological machine has struggled in efforts to frame the Arab Spring as an Islamic Awakening. Major conferences that tie the phenomenon to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and Islamicizing education are its response, but Tehran's narrative fails to capture the complexity of the revolts and jars with the movement's democratic underpinnings.
- Mahan Abedin (Oct 20, '11)

Turkey avenges Kurdish attacks
Turkish ground troops - backed by air strikes - have launched an incursion into northern Iraq to avenge the killing of at least 26 soldiers by Kurdish separatists. The attacks in southeastern Turkey were the latest in a string of incidents in response to the Turkish military re-establishing security zones, while the air raid on Iraq adds to incursions that have broken a year-long hiatus. (Oct 20, '11)

Shalit: Israel wins, but it's only half-time
Transcending the sense of jubilation in Israel over the swap of soldier Gilad Shalit for the freedom of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, the country has  gained on other substantive counts. The political map in the Middle East has a new look with the surface of at least six templates - especially in relation to Egypt. The game, though, still has a way to go. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 19, '11)

THE (DIS)INFORMATION WAR GETS UGLY
US officials peddle false intel
The aggressive smear campaign Washington launched to strengthen its claims that high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officials were connected to a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington was unambiguously false and misleading, as confirmed by official documents. - Gareth Porter (Oct 18, '11)

Hawks behind Iraq War rally for Iran strikes
The same United States neo-conservative voices that championed the 2003 Iraq invasion are demanding Washington respond militarily to Tehran's alleged assassination plot, describing it as an "an engraved invitation" for strikes. Perhaps more remarkable than the hawkish Policy Initiative's blank dismissal of plot skeptics is the appointment of its directors as key advisers to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. - Jim Lobe (Oct 18, '11)

Why memoirs matter in the Arab Spring
The new book by King Abdullah II of Jordan, written before the Arab Spring, is a milestone in modern Arab autobiographies since rarely do  Arab leaders write memoirs - at least not while at the apex of their career. Leaders recently shelved by popular uprising and those still in office might take a leaf from a 49-year-old monarch who sets the record straight and shatters stereotypes of him. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 18, '11)

Obama totes his Iranian smoking gun
The rhetoric of the Barack Obama administration has grown so loud that the Iranian thread in the latest terror-plot narrative that is stirring Washington could serve as a casus belli for the United States to hang Tehran. More immediately, the charges may serve to further isolate the Islamic Republic at a time that Iran is locked in an intense power struggle with its US-backed arch-rivals. - Victor Kotsev (Oct 17, '11)

Raging US pulls no punches on Iran
The United States has followed up accusations that Iran was involved in a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington with a call for the United Nations nuclear watchdog to release evidence of Tehran's alleged proliferation. The well-orchestrated and powerful jabs seem designed to distract from American woes at home, but Tehran will likely refuse to take the blows lying down. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 17, '11)

SPENGLER
Are the generals stealing Egypt? In part because Egypt's military government fires officials who report bad news, assessing the country's economic health is like staring into a black hole. At first glance, the army doesn't want to tell itself the truth. But the reality is probably far simpler: Actions such as firing the central bank's outside directors clear the way for corruption on a grand scale. (Oct 17, '11)

FBI account of 'terror plot' suggests sting
United States Federal Bureau of Investigation documents on the alleged Iranian plan to assassinate the Saudi ambassador contain not a single quote from the suspect agreeing to or proposing the killing. While Mansour Arabsiar merely sought an opium deal with Mexican drug-runners, the FBI seemingly ordered an undercover informant to entrap him in a fanciful plot of the bureau's own creation. - Gareth Porter (Oct 14, '11)

Turkey awaits the Arab Spring
The European Commission's latest report on Turkey pulls no punches in pointing out some of the country's deficiencies, from a lack of the rule of law to the erosion of the autonomy of regulatory bodies. The criticism, while further stalling Ankara's bit to join the European Union, underscores that Turkey is neglecting its own homework while immersed in espousing the cause of democratization in the Middle East.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 14, '11)

Tribunal obsession ruining Hezbollah
Hezbollah earned much of its support inside Lebanon for its schools, hospitals and charity organizations dotted all over the country. Its obsession over the international tribunal that indicted four of its members over the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri - expressed vociferously again this week - distances the movement from those feats.
- Sami Moubayed (Oct 13, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
The occupy Iran Fast and
Furious plot (extended)
The storyline of the apparent plan to kill the ambassador of Saudi Arabia would be hurled into the garbage can in any self-respecting Hollywood script conference. Yet it is very handy to divert attention from the Saudis as the beneficiary of a multi-billionaire United States weapons sale. And it is also very handy for Attorney General Eric Holder - caught in a monstrous scandal over Operation Fast and the Furious, a franchise that is the entertainment weapon of choice across all levels of the US government. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 13, '11)

Iran and US edge toward confrontation
At a strategic level, the details of the alleged plot by Mansour Arabsiar to assassinate the Saudi envoy in the United States are largely irrelevant. What is important is that both Washington and  Tehran have decided to raise the stakes dramatically, taking a significant step toward direct confrontation. Absent transparent de-escalatory measures, it would take only one or two further incidents of this kind to spark military confrontation in the Persian Gulf. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 13, '11)

Shalit deal sets scene for negotiations
Swift machinations behind Gilad Shalit's release deal belie the five-year stalemate over his  captivity, illustrating how far Israel and Hamas can bend when it's in their interests. The lopsided barter of 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli soldier seems a joint attempt to undermine the Palestine Authority's statehood bid, but Israel's aim could be extracting Shalit alive before it launches a war that would have sealed his fate. - Victor Kotsev (Oct 12, '11)

Iranian plot stirs US hawks
The apparent plot by two Iranians to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States has all the hallmarks of a fine spy novel, even as it raises many questions, specifically about what Iran would expect to achieve. One thing is sure though; hawks have a new reason to put pressure on the Barack Obama administration to take harsher action against Tehran over its nuclear program. - Jim Lobe (Oct 12, '11)

Misstep in Turkey's neighborly ties
Turkey's rhetoric of gunboat diplomacy and coercive sanctions do not fit the soft power approach championed by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Ankara for some time, relying on its multi-regional identity, has tried to be everything to everyone and, instead, finds itself in a potentially precarious situation of not satisfying anyone. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 11, '11)

SPENGLER
Never have so few been blamed for so much by so many
The death of Coptic Christians at the hands of the Egyptian military can be linked to Benjamin Netanyahu for building apartments in Jerusalem. And if 15 million Egyptians starve, Syria plunges into a genocidal civil war, Turkey kills another 40,000 Kurds and Iraqi Shi'ites and Sunnis exterminate each other, it's a given that Israel will also get it in the neck. (Oct 11, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
Liquid modernity, solid elites
The Occupy Wall Street campaign is flying the flag for the peaceful rejects of liquid modernity - all but the 1% solids, the fat-cat Masters of the Universe who take all the cream but still don't have a clue that 99% of Americans are as mad as hell and can't take it anymore. Derided as a bunch of nuts or criminals, the protesters are defying the elites and challenging their logic in a movement that could sow the seeds of a humanistic neo-Renaissance for the masses. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 11, '11)

iSad in Damascus: Syria reclaims Jobs
Syrians have special reason to mourn the death of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. Half a century after the son of Syrian Abdulfattah Jandali started his upbringing in California, they have lost a world-changing entrepreneur they could recognize as one of their own - while (apart from good genes) they are largely shut out from opportunities to emulate their hero. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 7, '11)

Pressure builds on Tehran
at nuclear watchdog
The International Atomic Energy Agency under the stewardship of Yukiya Amano has taken a tough line on alleged Iranian studies of warhead designs and ways to initiate nuclear explosions. The United Nations watchdog will soon issue a report that could provide "significant new information", while at the same time risking losing its credibility if it takes too hard a position without publicizing evidence to back up its claims. - Barbara Slavin (Oct 6, '11)

Iranians fume as banking scandal widens
A growing banking scandal in Iran boils down to how exorbitant letters of credit were issued by small bank branches without adequate collateral and without being registered in the banking system. The multiple irregularities have angered economic experts who focus primarily on the structural deficiencies of the economic system. Ordinary Iranians are enraged by the apparent corruption involved. - Yasaman Baji (Oct 6, '11)

West leads in Security Council vetoes
Accusatory fingers have been pointed at Russia and China for exercising a rare double veto in the United Nations Security Council against a Western resolution aimed at punishing Syria. But in the annals of the council, the United States and its allies, notably the United Kingdom and France, hold the record for double - and triple - vetoes. - Thalif Deen (Oct 6, '11)

SPEAKING FREELY
The importance of Camp David
If the first historic act the new Egyptian government achieved in regard to its neighbors was to repudiate the Camp David agreements, then, by defining a common external enemy and entering into a war-time mentality, the reinsertion of emergency laws would be justified, the power of the military establishment over civilian officials would be effectively reinstated and overall democratic possibilities would be crushed. - Riccardo Dugulin (Oct 5, '11)

Syrian opposition searches for unity
The formation in Turkey of the 140-member Syrian National Council is the biggest effort to date to create a representative body for activists opposed to the regime in Damascus. There is still, however, a long way to go in uniting a divided opposition, while the thorny issue of whether or not to take up arms against the Bashar al-Assad regime remains unaddressed.
- Zoe Holman (Oct 4, '11)

US follows a failed path
The United States persists in enforcing the same failed policies of the past, but expects different results. Propping up an Iraqi opposition that took part in the destruction of Iraq (following the US invasion of 2003) seems to be the model used by American policymakers in Syria. And this too is doomed to failure. - Ramzy Baroud (Oct 4, '11)

Awlaki's killing sparks propaganda battle
President Barack Obama has celebrated the killing of United States citizen Anwar al-Awlaki, calling him the "leader of external operations" of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. This description is at best a stretch, although Awlaki had earned a fierce reputation as an English-speaking propagandist. - Jim Lobe (Oct 3, '11)

Assassinations and the destruction of history
Aside from the ethical and legal questions Anwar al-Awlaki's assassination brings, some of the most perplexing pre-9/11 enigmas will now be impossible to debunk, chiefly what was al-Awlaki's real relationship to hijackers Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi? Both are believed to have visited a mosque on their arrival in San Diego while al-Awlaki served as its imam. - Derek Henry Flood (Oct 3, '11)

Chickening out in Iraq
As a United States Foreign Service Officer in newly conquered Baghdad, the job was to spend money, lots of it - such as US$2.5 million for a factory where chickens could be killed and processed for a market that did not exist, and where embassy guests could be fed on more traditionally produced meat. - Peter Van Buren (Oct 3, '11)