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Nuclear fallout rocks Pakistan
Reports of the United States attempting to take an active role in helping
safeguard Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could not have come at a worse time for
President Asif Ali Zardari. He is already marginalized by his military, now his
political opponents - including revitalized former president Pervez Musharraf -
see a weakness. A crucial showdown is due next month, precisely the time the
Pakistani Taliban plan their own fireworks. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Nov 19, '09)
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Subtle changes in US's China policy
A closer look at United States President Barack Obama's four-day visit to China
reveals subtle but meaningful changes in US policy towards the Middle Kingdom.
The Obama administration is likely to continue the cooperative and pragmatic
policies of its predecessor, while a heightened emphasis on China shows deeper
recognition of Beijing's growing regional and international clout. - Jian Junbo
(Nov 19, '09)
Taliban tap into Afghanistan's roots
The insurgency in Afghanistan will continue to gather momentum as long as
Afghans believe the insurgents have more compelling answers than Western powers
or the government of President Hamid Karzai. The Taliban's fusion of religion,
state and army presents a compelling case that foreigners will be expelled,
Pashtun pre-eminence will be maintained, and that there will be a return to a
golden age under Islamic law. - Brian M Downing
(Nov 19, '09)
Honeymoon over for Yudhoyono
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a month after being inaugurated
to his second and final term in office, is hounded by a corruption scandal that
puts his often plodding style in unfavorable focus. Yudhoyono's skill at taking
the middle road may be what Indonesia needs to ensure the growth of its
democracy, but he is unlikely to leave a meaningful policy legacy for his
successor. - Gary LaMoshi (Nov 19, '09)
Leak fuels fears over India's ID
project
Fears that India's plans for an identity database for its more than one billion
citizens could lead to government snooping, corruption and identity theft have
not been helped by the leaking of the project's working paper; nor by
statements in the document admitting that the system will be "susceptible to
attacks and leaks at various levels". - Raja Murthy
(Nov 19, '09)
New York readies for the 'Gitmo
Five'
News that the "Gitmo Five" will be tried in New York has raised fears of an
increased possibility of terrorist attacks in the city. The Lower Manhattan
court, however, apart from having the legal pedigree to handle the cases, is
also one of the safest civilian courthouses in the United States.
(Nov 19, '09)
Sri Lanka hastens Tamil camp
clearance
The Sri Lankan government has announced that the thousands of displaced Tamils
still living in camps will be resettled within two months, a decision widely
viewed as a public relations move prior to elections that will now take place
after a radical change in the political firmament. - Feizal Samath
(Nov 19, '09)
OBAMA ON THE ASIAN HIGHWAY
Hu and Obama seal real deals
The joint statement by Chinese President Hu Jintao and United Sates President
Barack Obama appears to embrace a long-term, strategic relationship between the
nations. The pledges of cooperation on Iran, South Asia and the Asia-Pacific
may appear principled rhetoric, but in private they represent concrete deals
being made. - Francesco Sisci (Nov 18, '09)
A new courtship for Southeast
Asia
Barack Obama at the weekend became the first US president to share a room with
all 10 leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The US's new
Asian focus is based partly on a belief that the region has been neglected,
giving China a pre-eminent position, and that it's time to get down to
business. - Brian McCartan (Nov 18, '09)
Obama dodges Chinese missiles
During his visit to China, President Obama avoided the subject of China's
military buildup and its deployment of new missiles, as well as "Juniper
Cobra", a vast and sophisticated US-Israel missile defense exercise. His
failure to broach the issue may spark domestic criticism and concerns among US
allies in Asia. - Peter J Brown (Nov 18, '09)
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Secrecy shrouds Iran's contingency
centers
Evidence produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency suggests that
Iran's Qom uranium enrichment plant was constructed on one of many sites
earmarked as early as 2002 as a "contingency center" in the event of a United
States air attack. The big issue now is at what point the center evolved from a
series of tunnels into a nuclear facility, and whether there are others. - Gareth
Porter (Nov 18, '09)
US takes aim over Jordan's shoulder
The Jordan International Police Training Center, a quiet and unassuming base on
the surface, has become a key part in the regional designs of the United States
and its allies in the Middle East. Since 2003, the facility has trained more
than 50,000 police officers bound for Iraq and beyond. - Jon Elmer
(Nov 18, '09)
Afghanistan runs on well-oiled
wheels
Every day, trucks carry diesel from Turkmenistan to the Afghan capital, Kabul,
where some of the fuel is used in electricity power stations. Influential
people are making a lot of money from the venture, which is financed by
American tax dollars and is part of a fine-tuned system of nepotism and
corruption that works a treat. It is not about to change. - Pratap Chatterjee
(Nov 18, '09)
Dollar doing the right thing
The US dollar's decline has conservative media bewailing the currency's and the
country's fate. Yet its 18% recent fall is against the euro, with little change
against currencies of leading trade partners China and Japan. And given that
the US is in economic distress, and has $30 billion a month trade deficits and
zero interest rates, the dollar very much should be falling. - Julian
Delasantellis (Nov 18, '09)
CHINA'S REVOLUTION, Part 5
Surplus and capital formation
China's post-revolution challenge was to transform a feudal economy whose
surpluses were mostly unproductive into a system that would increase capital
formation and hence national income. Land reform, a significant contributor in
the pursuit of this goal, remains a key issue in the country's progress and
potential. - Henry CK Liu (Nov 18, '09)
This is the fifth article in a multi-part series.
Part 1:
In the beginning was Tiananmen
Part 2:
Revolutionary lessons
Part 3:
Lessons of the Soviet experience
Part 4:
Mao's legacy lives on
Militants change tack in Pakistan
After a month-long operation, Pakistan's military is chasing shadows in the
South Waziristan tribal area. The militants being sought so desperately by the
army - and the United States - are scattered in remote surrounding areas,
including in Afghanistan. Previously, the next step would have been to
negotiate a ceasefire. Not this time. In a major switch, the militants want a
long-term insurgency against the security apparatus across the country. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Nov 17, '09)
THE BEAR'S LAIR
Waiting for the train wreck
Central banks have lost the opportunity to change policy, indicated by gold's
breakout above US$1,100. The huge weight of global stimulus money ensures that
the gold and commodities bubble will now run to its full extent, with the world
heading towards another train wreck. - Martin Hutchinson
(Nov 17, '09)
'Northern Taliban' threatens
Central Asia
Taliban counter-moves against United States coalition efforts to forge a supply
route from Central Asia to northern Afghanistan have ended the relative calm in
that part of Afghanistan and could drag Central Asian states into the conflict.
As more foreign fighters from groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
join the ranks of the emerging "northern Taliban", the issue is rapidly
climbing up the coalition's agenda. - Sanobar Shermatova
(Nov 17, '09)
Mafias expose China's legal woes
It took a directive from the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party before
officials in China's western Chongqing metropolis would unleash an "anti-triad
tornado" on well-connected mafia syndicates, nabbing close to 3,000 big-time
criminals. The fiasco has laid bare the full extent of collusion between
organized crime and senior officers in the police and judiciary. - Willy Lam
(Nov 17, '09)
SPEAKING FREELY
The benefits of a nuclear Iran
The United States should simply give Iran the bomb. A nuclear Iran would
restore parity to the balance of power in the Middle East and may end up
stabilizing the region far more than the continued tensions over Israeli and
American objections to Iran's nuclear ambitions. - Aetius Romulous
(Nov 17, '09)
US boosts India's anti-terror
efforts
India's decision to increase information-sharing with United States
intelligence agencies since last year's Mumbai terrorist attack is paying off,
witness the Federal Bureau of Investigation's operation uncovering a plot to
attack important sites in India, including the Taj Mahal. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Nov 17, '09)
Political impasse takes Nepal to
brink
Leaders of Nepal's Maoists are threatening more mass protests and to turn the
nation "into another Afghanistan" should their demands for limits to
presidential powers not be met. As the political turmoil drags on - not helped
by an apparent China-India tussle for influence - some see hope in the
formation of a unity government. - Dhruba Adhikary
(Nov 17, '09)
THE ROVING EYE
Welcome, comrade Maobama
United States President Barack Obama visits Beijing as China is organizing a
new world order based on economic independence and respecting cultural and
political differences - a hierarchical change all nations can believe in.
Beijing welcomes being classed as the US's "essential partner" and
"competitor"; being competitive is second nature when you have been a major
economic power for 18 of the past 20 centuries. - Pepe Escobar
(Nov 16, '09)
 SPENGLER
Europe's tragedy, and
Europe's tragedian
The 250th anniversary of the birth of German poet, philosopher, historian and
playwright Friedrich Schiller passed last week with less attention than it
deserved. Schiller understood European history not as the shift of power from
obscurantist Catholicism to enlightened Protestantism, but rather as the
death-tragedy of Catholicism and of Europe itself. (Nov
16, '09)
A Bonapartist in the Indian Ocean
Sri Lankan democracy may never be the same again now that swashbuckling army
chief Sarath Fonseka has abruptly discarded his uniform to run for president.
Fonseka is entering uncharted waters. But the United States Green Card holder
knows that he has the full backing of a Washington seeking a malleable power
structure in Colombo. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov
16, '09)
Test of wills over Iran plan
The fuel-for-fuel plan under which Iran would send the bulk of its low-enriched
uranium to Russia and France to be further processed for use in a medical
reactor in Tehran is still on the table. It is likely to remain there unless
its main backers, including the United States, introduce some compromises. - Kaveh
L Afrasiabi (Nov 16, '09)
Missing the nuance in south
Thailand
Misconceptions about the insurgent violence in Muslim southern Thailand have
grown with the conflict, as reports exaggerate or romanticize separatist
sentiments while claiming the Thai state's policy of arming Thai Buddhists is
fueling the violence. Overlooked are the connection many southerners feel with
Bangkok and local Muslim animosity towards the insurgents. - Jason Johnson
(Nov 16, '09)
Sino-Indian rivalry fuels Nepal's
turmoil
As Nepal's Maoists intensify efforts to paralyze the central government, the
group's mass protests and provocative acts over a political impasse threaten to
plunge the nation back into civil conflict. With the Maoists claiming the
support of China, and a pro-India government in place in Kathmandu, a barely
concealed proxy contest is developing between Beijing and Delhi for a strategic
advantage in the Himalayas. - Peter Lee (Nov
13, '09)
A witches' cauldron brews in Yemen
Saudi Arabia is on the offensive in Iraq and Afghanistan to counter Iranian
influence. The Saudis, though, are on the defensive in Yemen, which has become
a safe haven for al-Qaeda elements to make incursions into Saudi Arabia. In
addition, the Shi'ite Houthi clan has made the Saudi-Yemeni border highly
volatile. Tehran, while doing nothing adventurous, is highly pleased. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Nov 13, '09)
No country for gold men
People of all nationalities should now look to gold as the ultimate hedge
against inflation as well as globally irresponsible monetary policy, as the
absence of an exit strategy from central banks combined with an explicit
targeting of inflationary increases would create the ideal conditions for
wholesale destruction of savings stored through financial instruments. - Chan
Akya (Nov 13, '09)
Korea: Looking for a fight
After the 5,000 rounds that four South Korean patrol boats fired at an errant
North Korean vessel, President Obama's visit to Seoul will seem tame in
comparison. But while there won't be any fireworks over Pyongyang's nuclear
weapons, the contentious US-Korean free-trade agreement could provide
sufficient ammunition for a fight. - Donald Kirk
(Nov 13, '09)
 BOOK
REVIEW
An extraordinary life,
an ordinary man
Don't Call Me a Crook
by Bob Moore
Dissident Books, in rediscovering and editing this overlooked classic first
published in 1935, has resurrected a one-time author whose ignorance,
rakishness and lack of conscience are indicative of his time. What's
extraordinary, however, are his Chinese misadventures, which include tales of
murder and kidnappings. - Kent Ewing (Nov 13,
'09)
 ASIA
HAND
Plots seen in Thaksin's Cambodia
gambit
Cambodia's welcome to exiled former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra,
has added a volatile regional dimension to Thailand's political impasse. Thai
military planners now believe Cambodia's leader could be working with Thaksin
to bring down the government in Bangkok. However, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit
'Vejjajiva may see no political point in easing tensions, given his surge in
domestic opinion polls over the issue. - Shawn W Crispin
(Nov 11, '09)
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David P
Goldman
(Nov 18, '09)
The crystal-meth monetary policy at the Fed makes everyone feel better, until
they don't ...
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Medvedev
urges change to economy
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in further signs of distancing himself from
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, has called for a change to the country's
"primitive raw materials economy" and to policies based on "nostalgic
superstitions", even as a recovery based on higher energy and commodity prices
gives him room to speak out. - Robert M Cutler
Loss-hit JAL too big to fail
Japan Airlines, or JAL, is on the verge of bankruptcy after huge first-half
losses, but the government is only too aware that JAL flights account for 60%
of the country's total and play a vital role in serving the economy. United
States carriers, meanwhile, are circling the near-corpse with interest, as are
local unions and pensioners. - Todd Crowell
Tax offers Pakistan
escape from poverty
Within days of the White House giving the go-ahead to a controversial US$7.5
billion aid package to Pakistan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lambasted
Islamabad's dismally low tax revenues. Tighten the tax net, on landowners,
banks, textile companies and others, and the extra income would dwarf most, if
not all, aid figures. - Tarique Niazi
US at a crossroads
Amid a boom in financial assets and soaring unemployment, the United States
authorities face a moment of truth. But the public, investors and foreign
governments, all concerned and confused by US policy, know that those with
their hands on the tiller cannot be trusted to make wise choices over expedient
ones. - John Browne
FROM THE BLOG
Loans decline tells
the story
A 20% year-on-year decline in commercial and industrial loans does not look
like a recovery. In fact, it looks like nothing we have seen since the Great
Depression. - David Goldman
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
New data underlie the scale of China's promise and challenges as US President
Barack Obama meets Chinese leaders in Beijing: a doubled trade surplus, a stock
market up 74% this year, apartment prices at record levels and passenger car
sales up 76% in October. Concern over asset bubbles may weigh more heavily than
US hectoring to win the argument for the yuan to strengthen.
(Nov 16, '09)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Not so strong
The overall strength of Asian stocks last week masked a marked divergence, with
the Shanghai market in the middle as it was outpaced by gains elsewhere in
Greater China while Japan and South Korea showed signs of weariness.
(Nov 16, '09)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
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"[Major Nidal Malik] Hasan [the alleged Fort Hood shooter] was evidently a
Muslim, and a terrorist, and committed an indefensible act. I have no idea why
he committed that act of terrorism ... I never said that he was 'driven by his
faith'." - Jim the Moron
"As you [Jim the Moron] have no idea what drove his act, you cannot call it an
act of terrorism. A killing spree, whether sane and deliberate, or insane, is
not automatically "terrorism", unless the term has become completely
meaningless. "Terrorism" is defined by its motive, and by your own admission,
you don't know what the motive was. Yet you choose to link the ideas "Muslim"
and "terror" ... - aquicke
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From Our Mailbox
[Re Hu and Obama seal
real deals, November 18] What a refreshing article! I never understood
the United States government and American left's obsession with the Dalai Lama,
the Uyghurs, Kosovo or Georgia. Finally we have understood that we have to
improve our relationship with the powerful players of the global arena.
Ysais Martinez
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to Letters to the Editor |
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ATol Specials
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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan '09) |
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VIDEO
Taliban's new breed of leader
(May '08) |
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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