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A Bonapartist in the Indian Ocean
Sri Lankan democracy may never be the same again now that swashbuckling army
chief Sarath Fonseka has abruptly discarded his uniform to run for president.
Fonseka is entering uncharted waters. But the United States Green Card holder
knows that he has the full backing of a Washington seeking a malleable power
structure in Colombo. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov
16, '09)
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THE ROVING EYE
Welcome, comrade Maobama
United States President Barack Obama visits Beijing as China is organizing a
new world order based on economic independence and respecting cultural and
political differences - a hierarchical change all nations can believe in.
Beijing welcomes being classed as the US's "essential partner" and
"competitor"; being competitive is second nature when you have been a major
economic power for 18 of the past 20 centuries. - Pepe Escobar
(Nov 16, '09)
Test of wills over Iran plan
The fuel-for-fuel plan under which Iran would send the bulk of its low-enriched
uranium to Russia and France to be further processed for use in a medical
reactor in Tehran is still on the table. It is likely to remain there unless
its main backers, including the United States, introduce some compromises. - Kaveh
L Afrasiabi (Nov 16, '09)
Missing the nuance in south
Thailand
Misconceptions about the insurgent violence in Muslim southern Thailand have
grown with the conflict, as reports exaggerate or romanticize separatist
sentiments while claiming the Thai state's policy of arming Thai Buddhists is
fueling the violence. Overlooked are the connection many southerners feel with
Bangkok and local Muslim animosity towards the insurgents. - Jason Johnson
(Nov 16, '09)
 SPENGLER
Europe's tragedy, and
Europe's tragedian
The 250th anniversary of the birth of German poet, philosopher, historian and
playwright Friedrich Schiller passed last week with less attention than it
deserved. Schiller understood European history not as the shift of power from
obscurantist Catholicism to enlightened Protestantism, but rather as the
death-tragedy of Catholicism and of Europe itself. (Nov
16, '09)
An anxious wait in Afghanistan
While the United States agonizes over its Afghan policy, even with the
re-election of President Hamid Karzai now settled, the country remains in
limbo. Warlords and powerbrokers jockey behind fortified walls in the capital,
while the United Nations and other organizations keep their heads down. Only
the Taliban appear unfazed. - Derek Henry Flood
(Nov 16, '09)
Hong Kong plays transgender catch-up
A Hong Kong transsexual is suing the government for the right to marry her male
partner, putting traditionalists on the legal defensive. Attitudes toward
sexual orientation are changing in Hong Kong, though it's behind some places on
the Chinese mainland where such a conjugal union is already legally sanctioned.
- Kent Ewing (Nov 16, '09)
Sino-Indian rivalry fuels Nepal's
turmoil
As Nepal's Maoists intensify efforts to paralyze the central government, the
group's mass protests and provocative acts over a political impasse threaten to
plunge the nation back into civil conflict. With the Maoists claiming the
support of China, and a pro-India government in place in Kathmandu, a barely
concealed proxy contest is developing between Beijing and Delhi for a strategic
advantage in the Himalayas. - Peter Lee (Nov
13, '09)
A witches' cauldron brews in Yemen
Saudi Arabia is on the offensive in Iraq and Afghanistan to counter Iranian
influence. The Saudis, though, are on the defensive in Yemen, which has become
a safe haven for al-Qaeda elements to make incursions into Saudi Arabia. In
addition, the Shi'ite Houthi clan has made the Saudi-Yemeni border highly
volatile. Tehran, while doing nothing adventurous, is highly pleased. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Nov 13, '09)
No country for gold men
People of all nationalities should now look to gold as the ultimate hedge
against inflation as well as globally irresponsible monetary policy, as the
absence of an exit strategy from central banks combined with an explicit
targeting of inflationary increases would create the ideal conditions for
wholesale destruction of savings stored through financial instruments. - Chan
Akya (Nov 13, '09)
Welcome home, war
Wars, even the most distant ones, come home in strange, unnerving ways - as
Americans have just discovered with the killings at Fort Hood. In less noticed
but no less crucial ways, America's wars are now coming home, with techniques
developed in the crucibles of Iraq and Afghanistan migrating from Baghdad and
Kandahar. - Alfred W McCoy (Nov 13, '09)
OBAMA ON THE ASIAN HIGHWAY
Japan: A new battle over Okinawa
United States President Barack Obama's visit to Japan comes as rifts deepen
between Washington and the new government in Tokyo over US troops in Okinawa.
Tokyo still sees the US's strike capabilities as crucial for ensuring Japan's
security, but it is gradually shifting its 
axis of cooperation towards Asian nations. - Kosuke Takahashi
(Nov 13, '09)
Korea: Looking
for a fight
After the 5,000 rounds that four South Korean patrol boats fired at an errant
North Korean vessel, President Obama's visit to Seoul will seem tame in
comparison. But while there won't be any fireworks over Pyongyang's nuclear
weapons, the contentious US-Korean free-trade agreement could provide
sufficient ammunition for a fight. - Donald Kirk
(Nov 13, '09)
 BOOK
REVIEW
An extraordinary life,
an ordinary man
Don't Call Me a Crook
by Bob Moore
Dissident Books, in rediscovering and editing this overlooked classic first
published in 1935, has resurrected a one-time author whose ignorance,
rakishness and lack of conscience are indicative of his time. What's
extraordinary, however, are his Chinese misadventures, which include tales of
murder and kidnappings. - Kent Ewing (Nov 13,
'09)
Afghans fear infiltration from Iran
 Every
day, scores of refugees return to Afghanistan from Iran through a small, poorly
supervised border town in Herat province. Most of them have been kicked out by
Tehran, which, say helpless border police, is also sending across both Afghan
and foreign fighters to join the Taliban-led insurgency. - Zia Ahmadi and
Mustafa Saber (Nov 12, '09)
US air supply drop turns deadly
An American air supply drop that went horribly wrong is the latest incident to
provoke Afghan anger. Up to 25 United States and Afghan personnel, plus several
civilians, were reportedly killed or injured in insurgent-riddled Bala Murghab
district, with everything going from bad to worse when two paratroopers went
missing in a fast-flowing river. - Mustafa Saber
(Nov 12, '09)
Sri Lanka split over war honors
 A
widening rift between Sri Lanka's armed forces chief General Sarath Fonseka and
President Mahinda Rajapaksa over who should take credit for the defeat of the
separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam is adding spice to competition
ahead of a presidential election, and increasing concern for the country's
democratic future. - Sudha Ramachandran (Nov
12, '09)
Complacency creeps back in Mumbai
Life is buzzing again in Mumbai, almost back to normal nearly a year after
Pakistani-trained gunmen rampaged there, killing more than 200. But there are
doubts the city has learnt from the violent attacks. Regular government pledges
of vigilance and anti-terrorism conferences may help create some sense of
urgency, but the sight of under-trained, dozing policemen does not. - Raja
Murthy (Nov 12, '09)
The rise of Rimland?
Energy deals across Southwest Asia - such as between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey
- are redrawing international relations for years to come, bringing full circle
the region's post-Ottoman Empire history. On the periphery, and crucially, lie
Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. - Robert M Cutler
(Nov 12, '09)
Indian stocks face power shortage
 Strong
gains in Indian equity markets have been helped by government stimulus
spending, inflows of foreign cash, and improved company earnings. The driving
power behind all three could soon be running on empty. - Kunal Kumar Kundu
(Nov 12, '09)
Drones: A slam-dunk weapons system
 In
Afghanistan and Pakistan, drones seem to be the only things that "work". They
are not, however, the first wonder weapons so hailed. The atomic bomb,
Vietnam's electronic battlefield, Star Wars, "smart bombs" and "netcentric
warfare". All failed, just as drones will. But it made no difference, all
"succeeded" at home; yet another mini-sector of the military-industrial complex
was born. - Tom Engelhardt (Nov 11, '09)
The 'myth' of a counter-revolution in Iran
The crisis sparked by Iran's allegedly rigged presidential election has more
than ever exposed the reformists as confused ideologues who for material,
political and ideological reasons are unable to definitively break with the
ruling establishment. But it is the street protesters who are killing off the
reform movement. - Mahan Abedin (Nov 11, '09)
Space is suddenly on the China agenda
As United States President Barack Obama prepares for his first official trip to
Asia, a Chinese army commander has called for China's "superiority in space".
This could be taken as proof that China seeks military dominance in space, and
that the US's planned cooperation in civilian space programs would in effect
transfer technology to a potential adversary. - Peter J Brown
(Nov 11, '09)
Clouds over Tokyo and Seoul
Disagreements over a United States army base in Japan and a free-trade
agreement with South Korea are likely to figure prominently in President Barack
Obama's visit to Northeast Asia. Nonetheless, Obama is expected to grasp this
opportunity to reaffirm the US's longstanding relationship with its two closest
allies in the region. (Nov 11, '09) |
 ASIA
HAND
Plots seen in Thaksin's Cambodia
gambit
Cambodia's welcome to exiled former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra,
has added a volatile regional dimension to Thailand's political impasse. Thai
military planners now believe Cambodia's leader could be working with Thaksin
to bring down the government in Bangkok. However, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit
'Vejjajiva may see no political point in easing tensions, given his surge in
domestic opinion polls over the issue. - Shawn W Crispin
(Nov 11, '09)
US finally wise to Pyongyang's ways
Through a canny mix of precipitous threats and conciliatory gestures, North
Korea had continually succeeded in manipulating the United States into granting
it vast amounts of food and energy aid - while giving away little in return.
The US now appears to have cottoned onto this, recognizing that Pyongyang
hasn't the slightest intention of surrendering its nuclear program. - Andrei
Lankov (Nov 11, '09)
 SINOGRAPH
A sacrificial lamb
Discussions between India and China on disputed border issues could be hastened
by Washington's need to find a political solution for Afghanistan, something
that could compromise the cause of the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual
leader who donated "his" Tawang to New Delhi. - Francesco Sisci
(Nov 11, '09)
Dalai Lama calm in the eye of a
storm
While the visit by the Dalai Lama to the disputed area of Arunachal
Pradesh in India has not helped already frosty relations between India and
China - some even talk of war - the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader is possibly
closer to the reality when he points out "my visit here is non-political". -
Saransh Sehgal (Nov 10, '09)
THE BEAR'S LAIR
Which big country will default
first?
No leading economy has defaulted on its debt since the 1930s, yet conceivably
that could be the fate of the United States, Britain and Japan, an indication
of the wrong-headedness of policies taken to address the downturn. The world
should hope that the urge for fiscal responsibility hits London, Washington and
Tokyo pretty soon. - Martin Hutchinson (Nov 10, '09)
Oil floats high on easy money
Conspiracy theorists need only look at the number of tankers berthed over the
horizon from Singapore to find support for the notion that speculators are
helping to drive up the cost of oil. Media pundits favor the "China demand fits
all" approach. Reality seekers in the United States should delve a bit deeper,
and look a bit closer to
home. - Julian Delasantellis (Nov 10, '09)
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David P
Goldman
(Nov 15, '09)
The United States should establish a fixed parity for the dollar with ... China
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Korean model
triumphs over West
South Korea's strong economic growth, as Western counterparts struggle to
emerge from recession, makes a mockery of long-standing criticism from the West
over the predominance of family-run conglomerates in the Korean economy. - Ian
Williams
MARKET RAP
Not so strong
The overall strength of Asian stocks last week masked a marked divergence, with
the Shanghai market in the middle as it was outpaced by gains elsewhere in
Greater China while Japan and South Korea showed signs of weariness.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
CHINA'S REVOLUTION, Part 4
Mao's legacy lives on
Deng Xiaoping's reform policies, which led to China's present vital role in the
world economy, would not have succeeded without the revolutionary policies
launched by Mao Zedong, whose Thought remains the light source of the
historic revival of the four-millennia-old Chinese civilization.
This is the fourth article in a multi-part series.
Part 1:
In the beginning was Tiananmen
Part 2:
Revolutionary lessons
Part 3:
Lessons of the Soviet experience
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
New data underlie the scale of China's promise and challenges as US President
Barack Obama meets Chinese leaders in Beijing: a doubled trade surplus, a stock
market up 74% this year, apartment prices at record levels and passenger car
sales up 76% in October. Concern over asset bubbles may weigh more heavily than
US hectoring to win the argument for the yuan to strengthen.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
FROM THE BLOG
Yuan a saving anchor
By stabilizing the dollar against the yuan and other currencies, the United
States can create a shield behind which developing countries' capital markets
could flourish and capital continue to flow to the United States. - David
Goldman
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[Re No country for gold men,
Nov 13] "...Don't buy gold. Now it is time to invest in real estate in small
towns in China. There are many ways to do that. ..." - quark
"Hmmm .. interesting notions here. ... Gold vs Property ... well, the key
problem is that someone in Chattanooga, TN, or Geneva, SW, can buy gold. How
can they purchase Chinese 'small town' property directly? Do enlighten us ..."
- Chan Akya
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From Our Mailbox
[Re Korea: Looking for a
fight, November 13] The Kim Jong-il regime remains in power solely
through its ability to terrorize the people of North Korea. The world should
air drop several million small radios on North Korea to increase the knowledge
of its people and speed the collapse of this evil regime. That's the only plan
that will get rid of their nuclear weapons.
Dennis O'Connell
USA
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ATol Specials
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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan '09) |
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VIDEO
Taliban's new breed of leader
(May '08) |
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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