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US
digs deeper into Mindanao's mire
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will walk into the middle of a
storm when she visits the Philippines this week to press Manila and a
separatist Muslim rebel group to resume peace talks. The government of
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the rebels are at serious odds over the
kidnapping of an Irish missionary. Clinton's way forward may be to press on
with controversial secret meetings with the separatists. - Al Labita
(Nov 10, '09)
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Hezbollah back in the Lebanon fray
After five months of bickering, Hezbollah got its way in Lebanon on Monday with
the formation of a cabinet to its liking. The end of the impasse has a lot to
do with Syria and Saudi Arabia, which want peace in Lebanon while they
concentrate on hotter areas, such as Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. - Sami Moubayed
(Nov 10, '09)
Dalai Lama calm in the eye of a
storm
While the visit by the Dalai Lama to the disputed area of Arunachal Pradesh in
India has not helped already frosty relations between India and China - some
even talk of war - the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader is possibly closer to
the reality when he points out "my visit here is non-political". - Saransh
Sehgal (Nov 10, '09)
DESTINATION TERROR
Maldives faces up to extremism
A puritanical version of Islam is taking root in the Maldives, driving the
tropical paradise towards a path to religious extremism. Not only are cultural
practices changing, but an increasing number of Maldivian youth are being drawn
into global jihadi groups, with many now fighting in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
- Sudha Ramachandran (Nov 10, '09)
Iran and Saudi Arabia drawn to
Yemen
When rebels backed by Iran last week crossed from Yemen into Saudi Arabia and
captured some territory, Riyadh reacted swiftly, and with extreme force that
included hot pursuit into Yemen. The danger now is that Saudi Arabia and Iran
will be pulled further into Yemen, which already has a fight with al-Qaeda on
its hands. - Olivier Guitta (Nov 10, '09)
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India probes Maoists' foreign links
Indian security forces poised to launch a major offensive against Maoist rebels
say there is growing evidence of foreign support for the insurgency. It is
emerging that remnants of Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam are
training the Maoists, funds are arriving from Nepal and weapons from Myanmar,
Bangladesh and possibly China. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Nov 10, '09)
Pentagon starts an Afghan building
boom
Salsa and karaoke nights for United States troops have been cut in Kandahar
province, but elsewhere in Afghanistan the Pentagon is digging in with massive
construction contracts to private companies that will make life all the more
comfortable, and safer, for ever more troops. - Nick Turse
(Nov 10, '09)
Failure written into 'too big'
policy
Even as Washington tries to ensure limited damage from any future collapse of
"too big to fail" financial institutions, its own policies are helping the top
US banks tighten their market dominance. Nor is Washington addressing the
inherent risk from small entities failing in large numbers. - Henry C K Liu
(Nov 9, '09)
'Cronies and warlords' wait in the
wings
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has pulled no punches in saying that
"cronies and warlords" should have no place in the future of a democratic
Afghanistan. But the point is, cabinet and provincial governor appointments are
a part of a complex political contract in Kabul and it is extremely doubtful
that Karzai is in a position to oblige Britain, or any other country, even if
he wanted to. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 9, '09)
It's payback time in Kabul
In return for their pledges to guarantee huge majorities for Hamid Karzai in
the August 20 election, the Afghan president had to make promises to a number
of power brokers and warlords in the provinces of key ministries in the next
government. Now Karzai has to deliver. - Gareth Porter
(Nov 9, '09)
Dalai Lama at apex of Sino-Indian
tensions
Along with the tension created by the Dalai Lama's visit to the disputed Indian
state of Arunachal Pradesh, shifts within the Tibetan movement, India's
evolving geopolitical stature and the United States' growing economic ties with
China are converging to create dangerous instability in Sino-Indian relations.
- Peter Lee (Nov 9, '09)
'Undeployables' sent to the Afghan
front
As the United States debates whether to send tens of thousands of extra troops
to Afghanistan, an already overstretched military is struggling to meet its
deployment numbers. One place it is targeting is military personnel who go
absent without leave, and who then are caught or turn themselves in. Many of
these soldiers are already "damaged or even broken". - Dahr Jamail and Sarah
Lazare (Nov 9, '09)
When war comes home
The massive 
Fort Hood military base in Texas, where a major last week gunned down 13
people, is one of the most heavily deployed facilities for the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Fort Hood soldiers have also accounted for more suicides than any
other army post since the invasion of Iraq in 2003; this year alone, the base
is averaging over 10 suicides a month. - Dahr Jamail
(Nov 9, '09)
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Cambodia rattles Thailand's
chain
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's appointment of former Thai premier Thaksin
Shinawatra as an economic advisor has riled Bangkok. Hun Sen must have known
that his cozying up to Thaksin, who lives in exile and has been convicted on
corruption charges, would have this effect. But the long-serving Cambodian
leader more likely has other reasons in mind. - Craig Guthrie
(Nov 9, '09)
UNDER THE AFPAK VOLCANO, Part 2
Breaking up is (not) hard to do
The Pentagon well knows that AfPak is the key land bridge between Iran to the
west and China and India to the east; and that Iran has all the energy that
both China and India need. The balkanization of AfPak would neutralize China's
drive for land access from Xinjiang across Pakistan to the Arabian Sea, via the
port of Gwadar in Balochistan province. - Pepe Escobar
(Nov 6, '09)
This is the concluding article in a two-part report.
 PART 1:
Welcome to Pashtunistan
Israel up in arms over weapons
seizure
Israel has spared no effort in bringing the world's attention to its seizure of
a ship carrying tonnes of apparently Iranian-supplied weapons bound for
Hezbollah in Lebanon, via Egypt and Syria. If history is any guide, the
incident could be used as a pretext for waging another war on Hezbollah, or
even a strike against Iran. - Sami Moubayed (Nov
6, '09)
 CHAN
AKYA
Leverage not level
The picture is familiar - higher oil prices, a lower US dollar, and rising US
stocks. Missing from the picture is the leverage taken in China and related to
monetary expansion there - and what happens once that expansion is removed.
(Nov 6, '09)
BOOK REVIEW
China according to the Chinese
The Origin, Process, and Outcome of China's Reforms in the Past One Hundred Years
by Enbao Wang
Much of the English-language discourse on China's unpredicted rise is divided
between those who are fascinated and those who are frightened. The author makes
a useful attempt to bridge a growing gap between what has happened in China in
the past 30 years on the one hand, and persistent Western cultural-political
solipsism on the other. - Yu Bin (Nov 6, '09)
<IT WORLD>
Apple not so sweet in China
Not quite the end of the world for Apple, but the introduction of the iPhone to
China turned sour for the United States-based company and its mainland partner,
China Unicom, with initial sales falling well short of forecasts. Doomsday,
however, may be closer for the rest of the world, with the restart of Europe's
Large Hadron Collider.
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos. (Nov 6, '09)
Passing the buck on North Korea
Bilateral talks scheduled between Stephen Bosworth, the United States point man
on North Korea, and the leadership in Pyongyang - purportedly over coaxing the
North back into six-party talks on its nuclear weapons program - may just be a
smokescreen to force China back into action. Even if Bosworth's mission is
fruitless, Beijing could no longer accuse the US of not showing its hand. - Donald
Kirk (Nov 6, '09)
Tennis diplomacy on the table in
Bali
If the Mohammedans won't come to the mountain, then the mountain - or at least
a stone from it - can come to the Mohammedans - or their closest neighboring
compatriots. The visit of a female Israeli tennis player to Bali, a resort
island of Muslim-majority Indonesia, has echoes of the sports diplomacy trail
famously blazed by American and Chinese ping-pong players. - Muhammad Cohen
(Nov 6, '09)
US puts its faith in Pakistan's
military
A deal hatched between the Pakistani military and United States Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton cleared the path for Hamid Karzai to be re-elected for a
second term as Afghanistan's president. With Karzai's challenger, Abdullah
Abdullah, now out of the picture, Pakistan's military will actively mediate
between Washington and the Taliban. Along with Abdullah, the big loser is
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Nov 5, '09)
Iran looks to Argentina for nuclear
fuel
Iran hopes to revive nuclear ties with Argentina that have been stalled since
Tehran was accused of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in
Buenos Aires. Suspicious of a United Nations-backed proposal that its uranium
be processed in France, Iran prefers the Argentina option as it would shut out
Europe and see the United States become a more central player. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Nov 5, '09)
Russia, India and China go their
ways
Despite its best efforts, Russia failed at a recent trilateral summit to get
India and China to agree to a common regional initiative regarding Afghanistan.
This failure ensures that the United States can now press ahead with its own
strategy of striking grand bargains individually with these key players. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Nov 4, '09)
Little Laos relishes its big
moment
 For
the first time, Laos will host the Southeast Asian Games, with the 25th edition
of the 11-country sporting fest taking place next month. The tiny landlocked
country has had to rely on massive foreign aid - notably from China - to stage
the event, arousing considerable scorn in some circles. Yet, the enduring theme
of Laos' history has been its engagement with and dependence on foreign powers.
For Laos, this is a glorious coming-out for the one-party state. - Simon Creak
(Nov 4, '09)
SINOGRAPH
China no longer
a law unto itself
China and the West, in particular ancient Rome and Greece, followed markedly
different routes on the way to developing the legal systems in use today. The
West was notably influenced by the needs of merchants and the market place for
equitable regulation, while China saw this as a threat to central power. As
China steps onto the international stage, it will have to reconcile such
differences. - Francesco Sisci (Oct 22, '09)
 SUN
WUKONG
Insurers denied run of property
The Chinese government's decision to allow insurance companies to invest some
of their near US$500 billion in holdings directly in real estate has property
developers keenly anticipating a new inflow of cash. Yet the red tape with
which Beijing is tying up the reform should be sufficient to ensure no quick
bucks - or sharp losses - for anyone. - Wu Zhong
(Oct 26, '09)
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David P
Goldman
(Nov 8, '09)
Credit lines for small businesses ... will continue to shrink. [This does not
look like] any recovery at all
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Oil
floats high
on easy money
Conspiracy theorists need only look at the number of tankers berthed over the
horizon from Singapore to find support for the notion that speculators are
helping to drive up the cost of oil. Media pundits favor the "China demand fits
all" approach. Reality seekers in the United States should delve a bit deeper,
and look a bit closer to home. - Julian Delasantellis
China keeps its purse
open for Africa
China's policy of no-strings-attached aid to Africa, augmented this week with a
pledge of more assistance in agriculture and infrastructure on top of a US$10
billion promise on loans, is welcomed by the continents' leaders, even as
critics continue to question Beijing's motives. - Antoaneta Bezlova
Afghan cash starts
going to China
Metallurgical Corp of China has started work on developing the vast Afghan
copper deposits at Aynak, south of Kabul. That is good news for the hundreds of
Chinese workers at the site, protected by Afghan and US forces. Critics say it
is not such good news for the country, despite the millions of dollars that
will go to the Afghan treasury. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider
THE BEAR'S LAIR
Which big country
will default first?
No leading economy has defaulted on its debt since the 1930s, yet conceivably
that could be the fate of the United States, Britain and Japan, an indication
of the wrong-headedness of policies taken to address the downturn. The world
should hope that the urge for fiscal responsibility hits London, Washington and
Tokyo pretty soon. - Martin Hutchinson
FROM THE BLOG
Evidence lacking
Wal-Mart will make it through a recession; not the tea-cozy shop down the mall corridor, much less the real-estate agency in the half-abandoned exurb. The big issue in the US economy is the massacre of small business. - David Goldman
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
About a half paradigm
The shift in global financial power is increasingly evident, and when an
unchanging US Federal Reserve loses its already waning power over global
yields, the risks associated with its present course will manifest themselves
in a very problematic financial and economic crisis.
(Nov 9, '09)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Appearances can be deceiving
A volatile week saw exchanges trimming their losses, but absent an upbeat
Shanghai and a downbeat Tokyo the period is best described as nondescript, with
no clear engine to drive markets stronger in the immediate future.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
(Nov 6, '09)
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"[Re Uyghur activist
seeks talks with Beijing, Nov 5] 'Urumqi is now 70% Han, resulting in a
lot of resentment among the Uyghurs, especially in the capital city.' Just
about every propaganda piece published on NYT and elsewhere tries as hard as
they can to make similar lies ... all Uyghur in Urumqi are immigrants from
south Xinjiang (500 miles away from Urumqi) or their descendants. Urumqi is a
city created by Chinese emperors first as a military post." - quark
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From Our Mailbox
[Re Dalai Lama at
apex of Sino-Indian tensions, November 9] Peter Lee's analysis is once
again excellent and insightful, with a not unwelcome dash of humor. It is
indeed sad that elements exist within the Indian elite who wish to bring
potential war and strife (with much glee) upon their own doorstep for the sake
of pleasing their new potential ally in the American neo-conservatives.
Han
Australia
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ATol Specials
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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan '09) |
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VIDEO
Taliban's new breed of leader
(May '08) |
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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