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As ASEAN dithers, the US circles

The rhetoric used at the latest summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations risks generating false expectations of the 10-member grouping developing into a nascent European Union. Certainly, progress was made on economic integration, but such issues as dealing with Myanmar remain unresolved, which sends a mixed message to the United States as it ponders its engagement in the region. - Simon Roughneen (Oct 27, '09)

Kerry argues for counter-insurgency lite
The death on Monday of 14 United States troops in two helicopter accidents - the single-deadliest day for US forces in Afghanistan in more than four years - adds to the urgency for the administration of President Barack Obama to settle on its war strategy. Democratic Senator John Kerry, following an extended visit to the country, spells out his vision for counter-insurgency operations. - Jim Lobe (Oct 27, '09)

BREAKING NEWS
Afghan province falls to Taliban
The Taliban have taken control of Afghanistan's Nuristan province following the withdrawal of Western forces from key bases, as ordered by the American commander, General Stanley McChrystal. ATol brings you the full story in our next (Wednesday) edition.

Afghan fury at Koran burning claims
Allegations that American forces burned copies of the Koran during a recent raid in central-eastern Afghanistan have led to a series of protests, including two in the capital, Kabul. The United States military denies the charges, saying Taliban insurgents are behind the burnings. - Abdullah Obaidi (Oct 27, '09)

Gates gets grumpy in Tokyo
United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expected to leave Japan with a firm agreement in place for the relocation of the US Marine Corps base from Okinawa to Guam. But the recently elected Democratic Party of Japan played hardball, leaving Gates empty-handed. This and other disputes are a sign that Tokyo and Washington may be drifting apart after decades of close alliance. - Peter J Brown (Oct 27, '09)

Beijing runs a diplomatic marathon
From the Americas to Europe to Asia, Chinese leaders this autumn are engaged in wide-ranging diplomacy to play up the country's status as a near superpower that is also a responsible stakeholder in the world community. The danger in Beijing's no-holds-barred projection of military and diplomatic prowess is that it may also render the "China threat" theory more credible. - Willy Lam (Oct 27, '09)

India lost in 'love jihad'
Religious groups in India's Kerala state say young Muslim men are luring non-Muslim girls into marriage as part of an organized campaign of forced conversions to Islam. Dubbed "love jihad", the phenomenon has sparked police investigations and national security fears. It has even united Hindu and Christian groups previously at loggerheads over the sensitive issue of religious conversions. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 27, '09)

Welcome to 2025
An affiliate of the United States Central Intelligence Agency has predicted that America's global pre-eminence will gradually disappear over the next 15 or so years. Six recent developments - including reports on America's economic rivals exploring a diminished role for the US dollar and Chinese rebuffs of the US over strengthening sanctions on Iran - indicate we are already entering that era. - Michael T Klare (Oct 27, '09)



Baghdad blasts echo far and wide
The twin suicide bomb attacks in Iraq on Sunday that killed 132 people and injured 700 others have dramatically shattered the relative calm the country has enjoyed over the past 18 months. One of the first major consequences could be delays to the parliamentary elections scheduled for January, while the reverberations may yet be felt in Afghanistan. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 26, '09)

US threats prompted Iran nuclear facility
The United States has accused Iran of duplicity over the construction of a second uranium enrichment facility at Qom, and says Tehran only revealed its existence once the Iranians realized that Washington knew about it. Yet US intelligence estimates tell a very different story, one in which Iran carefully reacted to what appeared to be an imminent US strike against it. - Gareth Porter (Oct 26, '09)

China's culture offensive hits a wall
Beijing is working hard to raise its cultural profile on the global stage, including in the field of publishing, with its latest attempt taking it to the Frankfurt Book Fair. But it wasn't all about celebrating state-sponsored books and authors. To the Chinese officials' dismay, the event was marred with controversy and spats over human rights and press freedoms. (Oct 26, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Failed war president or prince of peace?
Should he take the peace-maker route, United States President Barack Obama stands a chance of success. History suggests that the path of war will be a surefire loser. The past half-century makes clear what the US military can achieve - destruction and mayhem; and what it has failed to do in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan - deliver a genuine and lasting victory. - Nick Turse (Oct 26, '09)

India's nuclear drive sparks safety fears
Since the civilian nuclear deal last year with the United States ended India's decades of isolation from the international atomic market, New Delhi has begun a vast drive to significantly increase its use of nuclear energy. The promise of clean and affordable power has strong government backing, but fears remain over the nation's patchy nuclear safety record. - Siddharth Srivastava (Oct 26, '09)

NATO plays a waiting game
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization faces a crucial decision on Afghanistan, with the top United States commander in the country, General Stanley McChrystal, asking the body for 40,000 more troops. Until next month's re-run of Afghanistan's presidential election comes to a close, NATO's defense ministers aren't committing to anything. (Oct 26, '09)

Estrada back on center stage
Former Philippines president Joseph Estrada, a 72-year-old one-time screen idol ousted in a 2001 "people's power" movement, is back in the political limelight with a comeback bid. Hugely popular with the masses despite his well-publicized vices and prior conviction for graft, he has promised to revitalize pro-poor programs and wage "all-out war" on Muslim and communist insurgencies. - Al Labita (Oct 26, '09)

SUN WUKONG
Insurers denied run of property
The Chinese government's decision to allow insurance companies to invest some of their near US$500 billion in holdings directly in real estate has property developers keenly anticipating a new inflow of cash. Yet the red tape with which Beijing is tying up the reform should be sufficient to ensure no quick bucks - or sharp losses - for anyone. - Wu Zhong (Oct 26, '09)

CHAN AKYA
The truth about banks and dogs
Over-aggressive, yappy and totally incapable of fending for themselves - today's banks are similar to small breeds of dogs created by man's manipulation of nature. Banks know full well that any misstep will lead to a government rescue, just as Chihuahuas and Pekinese turn into furry balls of trembling fear without their masters. (Oct 23, '09)

US zeroes in on China's clout in Myanmar
A senior United States State Department mission is going to Myanmar to ostensibly discuss democracy and human rights, but the subtext will clearly be boosting ties and building influence in a country long considered to be in China's diplomatic pocket. The competition between Washington and Beijing for influence in Southeast Asia could hinge on how Myanmar's generals react. - Brian McCartan (Oct 23, '09)

Hour of decision on Iran
Iran, Russia, the United States and France are considering a draft agreement that would see low-enriched Iranian uranium further processed in Russia and France before being returned to Iran for use at a research reactor. The deal has the potential to significantly defuse the crisis over Iran's nuclear program, but Tehran is wary of making any hasty decisions. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 23, '09)

Korean summit not such a sick idea
As Washington pledges continuous military support for South Korea and issues cautious words for the North, South Korean media are hinting that an inter-Korean summit might not be as absurd an idea as previously believed. Maybe the Dear Leader will go on a medical tourism journey to Seoul. - Donald Kirk (Oct 23, '09)

Toxic alert as US ship heads for India
Indian environmentalists claim a United States ship on the way to the country's ship-breaking "graveyard", Alang, is the latest toxic vessel engaged in trickery to avoid port-of-origin detoxification laws. Eyeing profits, the 4,000 unskilled laborers who would tear the possibly mercury- and asbestos-laden vessel apart with basic tools don't seem to share their concerns. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 23, '09)

INTERVIEW
Prevention better than cure?
The British government's counter-terrorism policy, "Preventing Violent Extremism", has been accused of being used to gather intelligence about people's political views and other information related to their personal circumstances. Dr Abdul Wahid, a key player in the British Muslim community, offers his views on the "sinister aims and ideological agenda" of this strategy, and provides an alternative approach. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 23, '09)

<IT WORLD>
Windows users in seventh heaven
Microsoft's new operating system, Windows 7, was launched with promises the software will deliver above and beyond its much-maligned predecessors. With Google and Apple snapping at its heels, Microsoft has finally introduced a new version that doesn't require expensive hardware upgrades to run it.
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science, gaming and gizmos. (Oct 23, '09)

America, condoms and the Taliban
The United States didn't seem to care that it was unprecedented for a tribal chief like Afghan President Hamid Karzai to be made to admit defeat in front of his people - as he did in a press conference to announce a run-off election. Whether Karzai was efficient or corrupt is no more the issue. The crux now is the Afghan perception that Westerners use their friends like condoms - to be discarded after use. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 22, '09)

The spy who lost his thumb drives
American space scientist, missile defense expert and leading lunar researcher, Stewart Nozette, arrested this week in a Federal Bureau of Investigation sting, is known to have expressed his willingness to work for Israeli intelligence. What is not known is what he did with two thumb drives he took to "Country A", which is speculated to be India. - Peter J Brown (Oct 22, '09)

Where Pakistan's militants go to ground
The Pakistani military is taking the fight to militants in the South Waziristan tribal area, even as the United States takes its Afghan fight to Pakistan. This draws Pakistan into an ever-deepening quagmire, one in which militants are carving havens. One of these is the Lyari area of Karachi, where an odd assortment of groups - including the Iranian Jundallah and anti-Shi'ite terror outfits - rub shoulders beyond the reach of the law. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 22, '09)

Islamabad dismayed by 'dithering' US
The view that the United States will eventually abandon Pakistan, leaving it alone to fend off insurgent groups and suicide bombers, is pervasive in Islamabad. And when US President Barack Obama appears perplexed over questions on Afghanistan such as "How many troops?" and "For what purpose?", it does nothing to instill confidence in a besieged ally. The fine line between "rethinking" and "dithering" is fast fading. - Zahid U Kramet (Oct 22, '09)

Property too hot to handle in Hong Kong
A world-record price for an apartment in Hong Kong highlights rising demand from wealthy mainland Chinese, while a 26% surge in prices since January raises fears of a bubble. This boom has prompted calls for restrictions on non-Hong Kong residents buying residential housing, and for the government to release its vice-like grip on land. - Olivia Chung (Oct 22, '09)

Iran trapped in a ring of unrest
Whether the United States directed Jundallah to conduct the weekend's terrorist attack in Iran is irrelevant. What is significant is that the Americans have created - through their actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan - a strategic environment in which such attacks are both practically and ideologically possible. If Iran is to rid itself of Jundallah, and the close ties the group has to organized crime, it has to actively lobby for the exit of foreign forces from the region. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 21, '09)

China's navy sails past India's dock
Three Chinese naval vessels do not make a fleet, but they do make a statement. By sending them to patrol off the coast of Somalia as part of the multinational force operating there, in effect, China is saying to India, "We're back." - Peter J Brown (Oct 21, '09)

SINOGRAPH
Ten years to tackle
the Taiwan equation

Instead of China and the United States sparring over Washington's next arms sale to Taiwan, they should concentrate on the core issue: the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. At the rate of China's current economic growth, they have about 10 years to prepare for this. - Francesco Sisci (Oct 21, '09)

Gloating with Wall Street's goodfellas
If the intention of United States economic mandarins was that tough regulations would force the large investment banks that survived the crisis to adapt to quiet, reserved suburban lifestyles, the reality is that they've acted more like former gangsters placed into a witness protection program, taking over the numbers racket on the Saturday pee-wee sports fields. - Julian Delasantellis (Oct 21, '09)

Saudi-Iranian hostility hits boiling point
Escalating tensions between Riyadh and Tehran may have played a role in Sunday's suicide strike that killed seven senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as well as 42 other people in Iran's southeast. Riyadh is concerned that Iran's growing power will erode Saudi pre-eminence in the region, and the Saudis might have a vested interest in disrupting the United States-Iran nuclear talks. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 20, '09)

AN ATol EXCLUSIVE
Al-Qaeda's guerrilla chief lays out strategy
The top field commander of al-Qaeda, in an exclusive interview with Asia Times Online, proves he is alive and well after repeated drone attacks and delineates in broad strokes al-Qaeda's strategy. The Afghanistan trap, baited on September 11, 2001, has been sprung, says formidable guerrilla leader Ilyas Kashmiri, and events from Gaza to Mumbai should not be seen in isolation but as part of the master plan to bloody the United States and its proxies. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 14, '09)
David P Goldman
(Oct 26, '09)
For all our problems, the Asians trust us a lot more than they trust each other.



Russia blackout as fraud trial bill mounts
The legal bills have already hit about US$30 million as Russian authorities pursue fraud and other claims worth US$800 million against Dmitry Skarga, one-time head of the shipping company, Sovcomflot, and a former fleet chartering partner, Yury Nikitin. The trial is in London; back home in Russia, the case is marked by a news blackout. - John Helmer

China challenge for
African prosperity

China's increasing dependence on Africa for oil and minerals is being matched by concern that only a few Africans benefit from the big deals involved. Extra vigilance and a new attitude to training and development could change that, as China's own success in reducing poverty demonstrates.

THE BEAR'S LAIR
Where have the savers gone?
Numerous steps that could encourage a higher savings rate in the United States are possible - but would prove unpopular. With the alternative a future along the path taken by Argentina, the pain would be worth it. - Martin Hutchinson

COMMENT
Abolishing risk destroys wealth
When government interferes with crucial elements of the American economy, notably by regulating away risk, it is destroying the nation's growth engine. The challenge for policymakers is to put the right incentives in place to increase the odds that, for society as a whole, more good than bad results from risk - and from greed. - Axel Merk

FROM THE BLOG
Asia must go it alone
The consequence of United States monetary policy will be to compel Asian countries to take local measures to stabilize their currencies without regard to Washington. - David Goldman




CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Mortgage madness
US Federal Reserve claims that prices of mortgage-backed securities are likely to fall when it eventually begins offloading them are far-fetched. Not only will the Fed have to live with exposure to the securities for years to come; Washington's mortgage risk will at some point make or break the US dollar. (Oct 26, '09)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

MARKET RAP
Asia stops to catch its breath
Aside from the significant exceptions of Shanghai, Hong Kong and India, the region's markets remained largely neutral. By far the biggest gainer on the week, Shanghai, may now have a clear field for a charge. (Oct 23, '09)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.





"... [New York Times] reporters write about 'freedom' and 'democracy' without much understanding of their true meaning, the historical significance. They use it simply as a slogan and a weapon. As for 'freedom of speech' and 'unfettered access to information', the real issue is the 'signal to noise ratio'. The ... ratio is decreasing rapidly as information flows faster. Individuals have less and less capacity and capability to extract true signal from the noise. The USA is a good example: people are increasingly confused [because of] ever [more] noise, by those with resources to control the noise and signal." - quark

From Our Mailbox
[Re Prevention better than cure?, October 23] Washington and London wish to keep the Muslim countries weak and divided. This is best done not through brute force, but by promoting sectarianism and fanaticism so that those countries consume themselves in turmoil.
Jonathan X
Canada
   Go to Letters to the Editor



1. US threats prompted Iran nuclear facility

2. Baghdad blasts echo far and wide

3. China's culture offensive hits a wall

4. Failed war president or prince of peace?

5. India's nuclear drive sparks safety fears

6. Inflation fears threaten US creditworthiness

7. Mortgage madness

8. NATO plays a waiting game

9. Insurers denied run of property

10. The truth about banks and dogs

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Oct 26, 2009)

Pick of the month Sep 2009
THE ROVING EYE

Fifty questions on 9/11
More questions on 9/11




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