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The Dragon spews fire at the Elephant

Indian lobbyists - with an eye on profiting from arms sales with the United States worth billions of dollars - are whipping up war hysteria and xenophobia over China, and Delhi is playing along. Against this electrified diplomatic backdrop, the state-run People's Daily tore into India this week. The relationship could nosedive further if the Dalai Lama's visit to India's disputed areas with China goes ahead.- M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 16, '09)

Pakistan aid bill has explosive impact
The same day that United States President Barack Obama signed a bill that triples the current level of non-military aid the US provides to Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban mounted the latest in a 10-day series of devastating attacks on key army and police facilities that highlight Washington's concerns about the threat posed by the militants. - Jim Lobe (Oct 16, '09)

Going 'deep', not 'big', in Afghanistan
An analysis making waves in Washington by a veteran United States officer calls for the withdrawal of the bulk of United States combat forces from Afghanistan over 18 months, warning against General Stanley McChrystal's counter-insurgency strategy. Lieutenant Colonel Daniel L Davis says that it is already too late for US forces to defeat the insurgency. - Gareth Porter (Oct 16, '09)

Palestinian refugees reject 'sell-out' deal
The more than 400,000 Palestinian refugees spread across a network of 12 camps in Lebanon are deeply politically divided and factionalized. Yet almost to a person, they are as defiant as ever about the right to return, they tell Asia Times Online. They also remain an insurmountable obstacle to any "sell-out" deal on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 16, '09)

ASIA HAND
Thailand mulls royal succession
Hundreds of thousands of Thais from across the country have journeyed to Bangkok to wish 81-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej a quick recovery from illness that has kept him hospitalized for nearly a month. Even as the revered monarch slowly recovers, the nation faces up to what will be the most profound transition in the kingdom's recent history with the monarch's eventual passing. - Shawn W Crispin (Oct 16, '09)

China's media blitz needs fact-checking
The heads of the world's leading media organizations gathered this month in Beijing to relish the fact that Chinese leaders have allocated US$6.6 billion for the expansion of state media groups. Much was made of China's irresistible media market, but the topic of press freedom was largely avoided by the bigwigs in attendance. - Kent Ewing (Oct 16, '09)

Pyongyang flirts with 'two-track' strategy
A glimpse of the desolate battlefields of the Korean War - near the site of Friday's talks on family reunions and aid - highlights how little inter-Korean reconciliation has progressed since the conflict ended in 1953. The talks come after a week of mixed messages from Pyongyang that saw it launch a barrage of short-range missiles, before making a rare apology. - Donald Kirk (Oct 16, '09)

ADRIFT ON A RUSSIAN ISLAND, Part 2
A political crisis erupts
As the 30,000-strong South Korean community on Russia's Sakhalin Island began to demand repatriation in the mid-1970s, Soviet authorities scrambled to deal with a political crisis that threatened to turn into a major embarrassment. A harsh solution was found, with many of the dissenters sent packing to North Korea, never to be seen again. - Andrei Lankov (Oct 16, '09)
This is the concluding article in a two-part report.

PART 1: Koreans left high and dry

BOOK REVIEW
On Indonesia's Islamic road
My Friend the Fanatic
by Sadanand Dhume
The writer of this timely travelogue crisscrosses Indonesia's archipelago, searching out the movers and shakers of a movement that aims to impose its intolerant version of Utopia on a fledgling democracy. It's a vivid, graceful and astute work, offering an inside look at the high toll politicized Islam exacts on Indonesia. - Ioannis Gatsiounis (Oct 16, '09)



The 'other' Kurdistan seethes with rage
While Iraqi Kurdistan elects its own parliament and forges oil contracts independent of Baghdad, other ethnic Kurdish insurgents from Iran, Syria and Turkey are flooding into remote redoubts in the fearsome Qandil Mountains to battle nation-states that have persecuted them for decades. With Turkish warplanes above and Iranian artillery firing over the border, Asia Times Online traced a tortuous path to speak with Kurdish guerrillas. - Derek Henry Flood (Oct 15, '09)

Taliban have a free ride in Kunduz
Once one of the most stable provinces in Afghanistan, parts of Kunduz are falling under Taliban control, so much so that the insurgents ride around with impunity in captured police vehicles. The governor of Kunduz blames Pakistan for the emergence of the insurgents, while others point fingers at the United States. - Gul Rahim Niazmand (Oct 15, '09)

Maoists go on pilgrimage in China
Nepal's top Maoist leader and former prime minister, Prachanda, took time out on his trip this week to China to visit the birthplace of Mao Zedong. Prachanda has a deep-seated interest in original communist concepts, and in comparing them with present-day realities. Beijing is looking for a dependable ally in Kathmandu, and Prachanda believes his Maoists can take on this role, he tells Asia Times Online. - Dhruba Adhikary (Oct 15, '09)

India takes off against 'Red Taliban'
The Indian Air Force has requested government permission to fire in self-defense should its helicopters or crew operating in Maoist areas come under attack, marking a significant change in India's counter-insurgency strategy against what are now being called the "Red Taliban". - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 15, '09)

Price limit on China's Russian friendship
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's latest visit to China indicates that a closer strategic cooperation is developing between the two countries. Beijing's determination to drive a hard bargain on the price of gas imports, a change from the offer of oil-related concessionary loans earlier this year, indicates that the cooperation has its limits. - Robert M Cutler (Oct 15, '09)

AN ATol EXCLUSIVE
Al-Qaeda's guerrilla chief lays out strategy
The top field commander of al-Qaeda, in an exclusive interview with Asia Times Online, proves he is alive and well after repeated drone attacks and delineates in broad strokes al-Qaeda's strategy. The Afghanistan trap, baited on September 11, 2001, has been sprung, says formidable guerrilla leader Ilyas Kashmiri, and events from Gaza to Mumbai should not be seen in isolation but as part of the master plan to bloody the United States and its proxies. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 14, '09)

Omaha greets an unusual visitor from China
People's Liberation Army Colonel Yao Yunzhu is frequently invited to international conferences because she is one of only a handful of military researchers in China who speaks English well. But what was she doing at the United States base near Omaha, Nebraska, which oversees all aspects of US nuclear warfighting? - Peter J Brown (Oct 14, '09)

Obama beset by America's far right
Neo-conservative heavyweights are working overtime to paint United States President Barack Obama's foreign policy as designed to weaken and constrain American power by abandoning the more aggressive policies of his predecessor, George W Bush. The Nobel committee's decision to honor Obama, they say, only hastens America's decline. - Jim Lobe (Oct 14, '09)

Gold's true standard bearers
As the price of gold soars, its rise is accompanied by a constant drumbeat hammered out on and around United States talk-show programs to persuade over-anxious, middle-aged Americans to buy Keynes' "barbarous yellow relic". - Julian Delasantellis (Oct 14, '09)

Turkey won't play with Israel
Israel believes Turkey's cancellation of joint war games is linked to lingering anger in Ankara over Israel's offensive on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while Turkey is trying to downplay what is clearly a blip in one of the region's most strategic - and unlikely - relationships. (Oct 14, '09)

Hawks still link Taliban to al-Qaeda
The relationship between Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network and the Taliban has been a central issue in White House discussions on Afghanistan strategy that began last month, with security officials insisting that Afghan insurgent groups have "much closer ties to al-Qaeda now than they did before 9/11". - Gareth Porter (Oct 14, '09)

Benchmarks prove elusive in Iran talks
Russia has politely yet firmly rebuffed United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's bid to secure Russian support for tougher sanctions on Iran if talks on its nuclear program fail. This will please those in the administration of President Barack Obama who prefer dialogue to threats. The administration, though, does not speak with one voice. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 14, '09)

SINOGRAPH
Asia steels for
challenges ahead

All of Asia has witnessed the United States battered and mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, and buffeted by financial crisis. As the world's largest economy takes stock, trends in Asia could take new directions and countries in the region might decide it is more practical and efficient to sort out their problems by themselves. - Francesco Sisci (Oct 14, '09)

China's rich throw lifeline to the West
Western makers of luxury products are enjoying a sales boom in China, as the number of rich Chinese continues to grow while the rest of the world struggles amid the continuing downturn. - Olivia Chung (Oct 14, '09)

Kerry-Lugar bill a Catch-22 for Pakistan
Conditions attached in the United States Congress to the Kerry-Lugar bill - which grants Pakistan US$1.5 billion annually over the next five years - have rubbed some in Islamabad the wrong way. Leading voices berate the bill as turning Pakistan into an American neo-colony. The dilemma is whether to align with the US to combat militancy, or take a principled stand in support of a weak democracy. - Zahid U Kramet (Oct 13, '09)

Arab world befuddled by Obama's Nobel
The news that United States President Barack Obama had won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize ripped through the Arab world, launching a vociferous debate in the media, on the streets and in the upper echelons of power. Many snapped that a Nobel is not granted for good intentions, but others insist his predecessor George W Bush was so bad, all Obama had to do to win was show up. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 13, '09)

Sinking feeling in the Philippines
The tropical storm-induced flooding that has killed at least 700 people in Manila and nearby provinces points to years of government failure in urban planning and disaster-management preparedness. Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's limp response has pulled her popularity ratings down even further, and may sink her anointed successor in next year's polls. - Joel D Adriano (Oct 13, '09)

North Korea begins 'Plan C'
As part of a "Plan C", Pyongyang is willing to start acting as a responsible nuclear power, stop transferring sensitive technology abroad and even help the Barack Obama administration's goal of global nuclear disarmament, according to its unofficial spokesman. All it will take is complete US recognition of the North's nuclear power status, a peace treaty and the establishment of full diplomatic ties. - Kim Myong Chol (Oct 13, '09)

China's rockers too pampered for politics
Unlike trailblazers from the 1990s, who sung fiery political anthems and faced harsh censorship, young rock bands in today's China are indifferent to politics, with introspection, veganism and day jobs more common than angst. These children of the urban elite know they should be rebelling against something, but their lifestyles are just too comfortable to risk. - Alice Liu (Oct 13, '09)

THE BEAR'S LAIR
When money is worthless
The increasing attraction to hedge funds of physical commodities as an investment rather than commodity futures raises the specter of supply shortages, severe disruptions to industries, and worse. - Martin Hutchinson

Pakistan warns India to 'back off'
New Delhi has the capacity to play a decisive role in crushing the Taliban insurgency, which is what makes the Pakistani military establishment extremely anxious in the developing political scenario on the Afghan chessboard. When the Taliban struck the Indian embassy in Kabul on Thursday, killing 17 people, the timing may have been coincidence, maybe not. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 9, '09)

Gaza report seals Abbas' political fate
The United Nations report on the 2008-2009 Gaza
War wasn't well received by the United States or Israel, which call it one-sided. What was more unexpected was an about-face by President Mahmud Abbas' Palestinian National Authority to seek deferral of a UN debate on the findings. The news has ripped through the Arab world, destroying any remaining credibility he had. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 9, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
Putin lays down
law for Clinton

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's appeal in Moscow for Russia to embrace "diversity" and her belief that the Kremlin will approve more sanctions on Iran got short shrift from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as he busied himself elsewhere, stitching together crucial energy deals in China. - Pepe Escobar

Sri Lanka budget
challenge for IMF

The International Monetary Fund, returning to Sri Lanka after a more than two-year absence, faces an immediate challenge to its latest support program as the government seeks to postpone passing a budget until after forthcoming elections.




CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Dollar dilemma
Continued weakness in the US dollar is being met by calls for Washington to implement a true strong-dollar policy, such as by increasing interest rates or trimming the country's federal deficit. Yet, such restraint is just not going to happen. Rather, central banks will be pressured to buy a lot more dollars. (Oct 13, '09)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.





... You and I may well abhor the backblocks, narrow-minded fundamentalism of the Taliban; yet arguably that is the reason the Taliban won [pre-2001]. By emphasizing Islamic values and precepts they appealed to the only thing that Afghans of all tribal affiliations have in common. - MonsoonWind

From Our Mailbox
[Re Al-Qaeda's guerilla chief lays out strategy, October 14] When al-Qaeda's Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri sees the September 11, 2001, terror attacks as prompting America's retaliatory involvement in the "swamp" of Afghanistan, he confirms that al-Qaeda has not created anything new, but that it is built on a mutual enmity between Islam and Judeo-Christendom.
Reverend Dr Vincent Zankin
Canberra, Australia
   Go to Letters to the Editor



1. Al-Qaeda's guerrilla chief lays out strategy

2. The 'other' Kurdistan seethes with rage

3. When money is worthless

4. Taliban have a free ride in Kunduz

5. Omaha greets an unusual visitor from China

6. Koreans left high and dry

7. India takes off against 'Red Taliban'

8. Maoists go on pilgrimage in China

9. Price limit on China's Russian friendship

10. Gold's true standard bearers

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Oct 15, 2009)

Pick of the month Sep 2009
THE ROVING EYE

Fifty questions on 9/11
More questions on 9/11




ATol Specials


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  VIDEO
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(May '08)

The Gates
Inheritance
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Roger Morris
 
(June '07)



Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)

How Hezbollah defeated Israel
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
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The Coming
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Pepe Escobar in China

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and
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his shrinking dollar


By Pepe Escobar with photographs by Kevin Nortz

   Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi resistance

Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd Armored Cavalry in western Iraq



 
 


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