BANGKOK - While the outside world grapples
with how much power Myanmar's new partly civilian
government will command, the country's still
ruling generals are literally digging in, taking
no chances of a substantial power shift after last
November's general elections.
Those who
predicted that the blatantly rigged polls would
mean something more than further
institutionalizing the military regime may now
have to reevaluate those assessments. United
Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon said in New
York on February 5 that he hoped the new elected
parliament would mark "the beginning of a change
in the status quo" in Myanmar. He said that the
appointment of retired general Thein Sein as the
new president was "an important step".
However, those hopes were dashed just days
after Ki-moon
presented his optimistic
scenario for Myanmar's political future. The old
junta strongman, General Than Shwe, decided
against retirement and will become the chairman of
a new seven-member "State Supreme Council", which,
as the name suggests, will be the most powerful
institution in the country.
Significantly,
the new constitution, under which last year's
elections were held and the new government formed,
does not mention or legally mandate the creation
of any such body. Many earlier thought Than Shwe
would retain influence through a constitutionally
mandated 11-member National Defense and Security
Council (NDSC), which will be led by the
president.
Apart from chairman Than Shwe,
the extra-constitutional State Supreme Council
will also include the number two in the old junta
hierarchy, General Maung Aye. Other former members
of the now dissolved junta, known as the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC), will include
Thura Shwe Mann, a known Than Shwe ally who
supposedly retired from military service to become
a "civilian politician" before last year's
election. He has also been appointed the new
speaker of the Lower House of the new National
Assembly.
More importantly, a new village
has been built on the outskirts of the capital
Naypyidaw, apparently to ensure that members of
the top brass remain in view and stay in step with
Than Shwe's new political order. According to a
town plan leaked to Asia Times Online, 16 new
homes have or are in the process of being built
behind a high-walled compound for the country's 16
top military leaders.
Than Shwe's own
residence sits at the center of this exclusive,
closely guarded "gated community". He will reside
in a huge mansion, complete with a sprawling
garden, tree-lined driveway and swimming pool,
according to the town plan. Next door, the plan
shows, his deputy Maung Aye will reside in a
considerably smaller villa.
Homes in the
compound have also been reserved for Thein Sein,
the former lieutenant-general-turned-civilian
president, supposedly retired former general Thura
Shwe Mann, and ex-Lieutenant General Tin Aye, now
chairman of the Election Commission. The other
houses will belong to other generals and newly
appointed parliamentarians.
According to
the source who leaked the town plans, Than Shwe
wants to make sure that no one in his flock goes
astray: "It's like they are under some kind of
house arrest. Than Shwe is dead-scared of any
possible split, or even disagreements, within the
top military leadership," the source said. To
guard against potential threats, there is a
complex network of bunkers and bomb-proof culverts
built under Than Shwe's presumptuous new
residence, according to the plan. Apart from a
domestic revolt, Than Shwe is known to fear a
possible US-led foreign invasion.
Mild
dissent Historically, Myanmar's ruling
military has demonstrated a remarkable ability to
remain united in the face of both domestic
protests and international condemnation,
particularly of its abysmal rights record.
However, divergent opinions over how to handle
public unrest became apparent among junta leaders
in late 2007, when hundreds of thousands of
Buddhist monks marched through the old capital
Yangon and other cities and towns.
There
was also reportedly disagreement among the top
brass over whether international aid should be
accepted after Cyclone Nargis devastated much of
lower Myanmar in May 2008. According to a cable
from the US Embassy in Yangon, which was sent
shortly after the cyclone and made public by
WikiLeaks in February this year, both Than Shwe
and Thura Shwe Mann were reluctant to allow
international rescue workers into the country.
"Than Shwe remained worried about a US
invasion and [was] determined to hold on to
power," the leaked cable said. Than Shwe was
eventually persuaded by other top generals to give
rescue workers access to the affected areas, but
only after more than a hundred thousand people had
perished and hundreds of thousands more were
dislocated or otherwise adversely impacted by the
natural disaster.
Faced with a Buddhist
monk-led revolt in 2007, both Than Shwe and his
deputy Maung Aye "gave the orders to crackdown on
the monks, including shooting them if necessary",
according to another US cable made available by
WikiLeaks. Dated November 28, 2007, that cable
alleges that Thura Shwe Mann disagreed with the
decision to suppress the monk-led anti-government
manifestation, but carried it out while "quietly
advising regional commanders to do so with minimal
bloodshed".
With the country's 16 most
powerful men living together inside a new
compound, future disagreements will be more easily
managed, some sources suggest. The appointment of
Thein Sein as president will also ensure that
little changes after the election and the
formation of a new National Assembly.
Myanmar sources draw parallels with the
Machiavellian tactics deployed by former strongman
Ne Win, who "retired" as president of the country
in 1981 and symbolically handed power to San Yu, a
weak and colorless figure who obediently complied
with his boss's wishes. Ne Win also stayed on as
chairman of the then ruling Burma Socialist
Program Party, the country's supreme authority,
until both he and San Yu resigned in 1988 amid
massive anti-government demonstrations that swept
the country.
According to the assessment
of some Myanmar insiders, Thein Sein has become
"Than Shwe's San Yu". As one of the leaked US
cables suggests, Thein Sein may have been among
those who wanted to accept foreign assistance
after Cyclone Nargis. However he is not known to
have ever challenged any major official policy -
no matter how controversial.
On May 9,
2001, when Thein Sein served as a major general
and commander of the Myanmar Army's Golden
Triangle Command in eastern Shan State, he said in
a speech before former rebels in the town of Mong
La near the Chinese border: "I was in Mong Ton and
Mong Hsat for two weeks. U Wei Xuegang and U Bao
Youri from the Wa groups are real friends."
Wei and Bao may have made peace with the
central government, but both have been indicted by
a US court for their involvement in the Golden
Triangle drug trade, which includes the production
of methamphetamines as well as heroin. To Thein
Sein, however, they were "friends" of the regime.
Such tow-the-line statements indicate to observers
that Thein Sein will remain a loyal servant to
Than Shwe in his new presidential capacity.
According to another of the leaked US
Embassy cables, "Than Shwe's isolation and
paranoia know no bounds ... the question is who is
brave enough to shunt Than Shwe aside? Most
Burmese [Myanmars] tell us no one." Because all
the top generals will be closely guarded neighbors
under the watchful eye of a general who will
remain the country's most powerful player, the
potential for an internal coup seems as remote as
the country's democratic prospects under
"civilian" rule.
Bertil Lintner
is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern
Economic Review and the author of several books on
Myanmar. He is currently a writer with Asia
Pacific Media Services.
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