ASIA HAND Abhisit's democratic choice
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Thailand is sliding towards de-facto military rule and it is not
clear that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has the will or power to turn back
the authoritarian tide. A sustained state of emergency has given security
forces extraordinary powers to detain suspects without trial, censor the media
and ban public gatherings, powers the top brass have flexed after last month's
dramatic crackdown on anti-government protesters encamped in the heart of
Bangkok.
One military insider contends that the Center for the Resolution of Emergency
Situations (CRES), which was formed to handle the United Front for Democracy
Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group's street protests, is morphing into a
sort of ''shadow government'' to Abhisit's democratically elected coalition.
There is no sign since the protest's dispersal that the CRES plans to
disband. The insider says it is putting in place structures to sustain its
influence over the country's administration.
Three weeks since the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, a
crackdown against the group's leaders, organizers and supporters has widened,
with an emphasis on areas of the country that remain under emergency rule.
According to diplomats and human-rights advocates, it is unclear how many
people have been arrested and detained, and under what conditions they are
being held. The government has acknowledged holding over 400 people; one local
rights group claims as many as 100 people have gone missing since May 19.
"We believe that more have been detained than the government has acknowledged
and that the army has let it be known that they plan on doing things their way.
And the army has a long history of disappearing people in Thailand," says one
representative of an international rights organization. The rights
representative contends that the military and police are keeping two separate
lists of detainees and that crackdown in the provinces is a "black box".
Emergency rule allows for suspects to be held for 30 days before they must
either be charged or released - meaning the deadline for many suspects is fast
approaching. Abhisit indicated on June 6 that emergency rule would remain in
place indefinitely to guard against UDD-aligned armed elements that his
government considers “terrorists”. Fanning those fears, exiled former premier
Thaksin Shinawatra, the UDD's symbolic leader, said after the crackdown that
angry UDD supporters might in future resort to "guerilla tactics".
Several UDD leaders, including Thaksin, have been accused of "terrorism" for
their alleged association with armed militants who launched grenades and
exchanged gunfire with security forces at the UDD's protest site. Officials
believe that the shadowy armed wing was also responsible for a series of
mysterious bombings that coincided with the UDD's protest activities and began
soon after the Supreme Court ruled to seize US$1.4 billion worth of Thaksin's
personal assets on corruption charges.
An estimated 89 people were killed and more than 1,800 injured in
protest-related violence that began on April 10 and culminated in the May 19
crackdown. The government and UDD have blamed one another. Abhisit's government
initiated this week an independent probe into the killings and injuries and the
premier has indicated that he would take responsibility if troops were found to
have violated internationally accepted rules of engagement. It is not initially
clear, however, that the military's top brass share that sentiment.
Already the opposition Puea Thai party has questioned the impartiality of the
panel's government-appointed head, a former attorney general who was assigned
by the post-2006 coup military appointed administration to investigate
Thaksin's government's alleged human-rights abuses, including a "war on drugs"
campaign that is said to have resulted in as many as 2,200 extrajudicial
killings. That inconclusive probe, however, resulted in no prosecutions or
convictions of security forces or politicians.
Several independent observers believe that the military was responsible for the
majority of the UDD protest-related killings, including the shooting deaths of
two foreign journalists. However, it is unclear if troops used disproportionate
force in dealing with what at least one foreign interlocutor characterized as
an "armed rebellion". Many diplomats and analysts are now weighing whether the
UDD has the capability or intent to follow through on Thaksin's veiled
insurgency threat.
Underground threat
With its top leaders either in detention or in hiding and its chief financiers'
faced with asset freezes, there are indications that the UDD is in disarray.
Yet one UDD organizer who spoke with Asia Times Online on condition of
anonymity indicated that a second generation of UDD leaders was biding its time
until the government lifted emergency rule to launch new rounds of protests,
including in north and northeastern provinces where the UDD's grassroots
support is strongest.
Hardline UDD leaders, including Arisman Pongruangrong and Suporn Attawong, have
reportedly fled to Cambodia and, according to the UDD organizer, are now
involved in planning the next phase of the UDD's resistance. They have
reportedly joined forces with exiled UDD strategist Jakrapob Penkair, who told
foreign media after the military's suppression of an earlier UDD protest in
April 2009 that the group was prepared to launch an underground "armed
struggle".
Analysts now wonder whether the UDD plans to use Cambodia as a command base for
a hit-and-run style insurgency in bordering northeastern Thai provinces,
similar to the low-intensity campaign Muslim rebels have waged from Malaysia to
destabilizing effect in Thailand's three southernmost provinces. UDD protesters
torched provincial halls and other government installations in four
northeastern provinces in the wake of the May 19 crackdown in Bangkok.
Nonetheless the government excluded several northern and northeastern provinces
among the 23 it first placed under curfew.
Skeptics believe that Thaksin's veiled insurgency threat is for now posturing
aimed at enhancing his negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government. During
secret talks between Thaksin and government negotiator Sukhumbhand Paribatra
held in mid-April in Brunei, Thaksin lobbied for the return of his diplomatic
passport and access to the hundreds of millions of dollars not confiscated by
the Supreme Court ruling, according to a government source familiar with the
discussions which were organized by a Swedish parliamentarian interlocutor.
(During a June 1 press event in Bangkok, Sukhumbhand would neither confirm nor
deny whether the negotiations took place, but diplomats and other international
mediators have confirmed that they did. Public recognition of Thaksin's
participation would seemingly undermine his recent disavowals of having any
influence over the UDD's activities.)
Some analysts believe that the greater threat to stability comes from the UDD's
attempts to sow divisions along factional lines inside the military. Questions
remain unanswered about the identity of the black-clad assailants who fired
assault rifles and M-79 grenades at security forces from the UDD's side of the
protest site. Initial speculation in the wake of the men-in-black's first
emergence on April 10 pointed to renegade Rangers, or tahahn prahn,
loyal to Thaksin ally and former army commander and prime minister General
Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.
Certain diplomats now believe, judging by the fighting skills they exhibited,
that the black-clad fighters were more likely paid mercenaries with experience
as Marine SEALS or the air force's secretive anti-aircraft unit and links to
the military's pre-Cadet Academy's Class 10 faction. In light of their alumni
ties to Thaksin, many Class 10 soldiers were sidelined or demoted after the
2006 coup and on their retirement last year joined forces with the
Thaksin-aligned opposition Puea Thai party.
Former Queen's Guard soldiers, including army commander General Anupong
Paochinda and deputy army commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, have since been
on the promotional ascent - often at the expense of professional soldiers
attached to less royally decorated army units. Some analysts have speculated
that the seemingly systematic promotion of army royalists aims to ensure a
smooth royal succession from 82-year-old King Bhumibol to his heir apparent
son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.
However, the anticipated transition from the moderate Anupong to the more
hardline Prayuth later this year is expected to accentuate intra-military
disenfranchisement because Prayuth could potentially serve for four consecutive
years in the army's top spot. A known palace favorite, Prayuth has already
positioned many of his Class 12 allies for top-level promotions in this year's
reshuffle.
Hardliner rising
Since April, Prayuth has asserted greater influence over the CRES, reportedly
in reaction to Anupong's refusal to take a tougher tack against the UDD.
Passions apparently came to a head after the April 10 melee where exchanges
between armed protesters and troops resulted in 26 deaths, including five
soldiers. Among the fallen was palace favorite Colonel Romklao Thuwatham and
two other soldiers who were expected to fill key positions under Prayuth's
command.
When the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, King's and
Queen's Guard units appeared side-by-side at a press conference broadcast on
national television as the operation unfolded. Some analysts believe that the
symbolic show of royally decorated unity was orchestrated to counter rumors of
dissension among the ranks after days of firefights that killed scores of
protesters and a handful of troops. However, during the military's operation
against the UDD's protest site there was no indication of a breakdown in
command authority, according to one well-placed diplomat.
The ongoing crackdown against the UDD is being viewed in some royalist quarters
as a measuring stick of regional commanders' loyalty and effectiveness. Second
Army Region commander Lieutenant General Weewalit Chornsamrit, who oversees
security in the northeastern region, has passed the test with flying colors,
according to one military insider. The First Army Region Commander, Lieutenant
General Kanit Sapitak, charged with Bangkok's security, has reportedly come
under fire from Prayuth for his perceived hesitant response to the UDD.
Some believe the top brass has deliberately played up the notion that the UDD
represents a threat to the royal crown to shore up military unity. In the
lead-up to the May 19 crackdown, Abhisit claimed without providing detailed
evidence that the UDD secretly aimed to topple the monarchy - an incendiary
accusation in Thailand's political and legal context. UDD leaders have strongly
denied the allegation, including in a little red bilingual question-and-answer
book distributed towards the end of their protest.
But its clear from the ongoing crackdown on UDD supporters, including an
academic who has been released and a newspaper editor who is still in
detention, that the military is exercising emergency powers to identify and
target perceived threats to the crown. With the combined threats of a possible
Thaksin-fueled insurgency and an alleged plot to topple the monarchy, Abhisit
will be hard-pressed to roll back any time soon the military's discretionary
powers.
Abhisit has relied heavily on the military because of his lack of control and
trust in the police to maintain law and order. There have been instances where
he has pushed back against military might. According to one person close to the
premier, Abhisit threatened to step down in April amid speculation that Prayuth
might stage a "half coup" that aimed to oust Anupong while leaving Abhisit's
coalition government in place. He is also known to have resisted hardline
military and royalist voices that wanted to crack down on the UDD's protest
earlier, according to diplomats.
In reply to a journalist's question at a May 29 press conference on whether he
ever considered resigning over the loss of life during the May 19 crackdown,
Abhisit said he would take personal responsibility if the independent probe
initiated this week found him guilty of wrongful loss of life. He emphasized
that he has tried to find a "peaceful" solution to the country's crisis and
underscored his long personal history of pushing for democratic reforms as an
elected politician.
To signal a return to democratic normalcy, Abhisit returned to work at
Government House after spending nearly two months at a Bangkok military base
due to concerns for his personal security. He has indicated plans to stay the
course of his "reconciliation roadmap" and floated anew the potential for
dissolving parliament and holding elections before his term is up at the end of
2011.
But there are emerging doubts that Prayuth and his soldier allies would be
willing to risk an election result that saw Abhisit ousted, a Thaksin-aligned
government installed and the military's recent record opened to tougher
scrutiny.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
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