ASIA HAND Why Thailand's reds beat a retreat
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - After nearly two months of debilitating and often violent street
protests, Thailand's United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)
protest group has broadly accepted Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's
reconciliation road map, including a proposed November 14 general election date
and independent probes into recent protest-related violence and deaths.
The tentative truce represents a significant climbdown for the UDD, which had
earlier called for an immediate dissolution of parliament and new polls and
angled to control a crucial upcoming military reshuffle. Many feared a promised
government crackdown
on the UDD's protest site in central Bangkok could have sparked a wider
conflict, one that potentially pitted police and military aligned with the UDD
against government-controlled forces.
UDD co-leaders had repeatedly threatened "civil war" if the government used
force against its protesters, and officials claimed the protest group had
stockpiled war weapons and that "terrorists" were in their midst. As the two
sides edge back from the precipice, international pressure, information-sharing
and mediation were all instrumental in the still tentative peace.
International mediators worked feverishly behind the scenes when the crisis
threatened to spiral into wider civil strife, including the specter of an
urban-style insurgency. It's unclear what role, if any, a Swedish
parliamentarian who facilitated previous talks and maintains close contacts
with self-exiled former premier and UDD chief patron, Thaksin Shinawatra,
played in the pact.
People familiar with one behind-the-scenes channel suggest talks were recently
held in a Southeast Asian country that included Thaksin and a senior government
representative. That would seemingly explain Abhisit's sudden willingness to
consider an amnesty for over 200 banned politicians, most formerly in Thaksin's
camp, and amendment to a constitutional article covering election fraud that
has dissolved two Thaksin-aligned political parties and now threatens his own
Democrat party.
While much is yet to be agreed, including whether UDD co-leaders will be given
amnesty on terrorism charges, the fact that Thaksin has publicly approved the
framework indicates it's a done deal, say people familiar with the process. UDD
spokesman Sean Boonracong told Asia Times Online that the group's leaders were
"afraid that if they didn't negotiate we would be looked at by diplomats and
international media as too stubborn".
The image-conscious UDD had effectively portrayed its red-garbed protest to
international media as a non-violent, pro-democracy movement pitted against an
elite-backed government. The protest group's behind-the-scenes spindoctors also
successfully forwarded the storyline that its protesters were pitched in a
class struggle against double standards that favor the rich over the poor.
Television-friendly English-language signage on the main protest stage read
simply: "Peaceful protest, no terrorist."
That messaging overlooked the fact that the UDD's protest commenced barely a
fortnight after the Supreme Court ruled to confiscate US$1.4 billion worth of
Thaksin's personal assets on corruption and abuse-of-power charges related to
his six-year tenure. With the contours of an elite settlement emerging,
including a possible mass amnesty for recent deaths and destruction, Thailand's
now fading street fight is even more clearly viewed as an elite power struggle
rather than an organically sprung grassroots pro-democracy movement.
Hardened tactics
Several strategic missteps and turning international opinion undermined
Thaksin's and the UDD's negotiating position vis-a-vis the government. Some
view the UDD raid on a royally affiliated Bangkok hospital that motivated
doctors to evacuate patients as a turning point. But as the UDD's rhetoric and
tactics intensified, many Western diplomats already felt that the UDD and its
proxies had abandoned their claim to non-violence and adopted violent means to
push their agenda.
Those perceptions were largely informed by the April 10 violence, when heavily
armed black-clad assailants threw grenades and opened fire on government troops
who returned fire onto the red-shirt-wearing crowd. At least 26 people were
killed, including six soldiers, and over 800 injured in the armed melee.
Because of the murky circumstances surrounding the violence, international
reaction to the killings has been muted. Abhisit's government has escaped
censure by maintaining that soldiers fired live ammunition only in
self-defense, though one Bangkok-based diplomat says that officials have been
reluctant to release CCTV footage of the armed exchanges they have in their
possession.
The UDD has countered by claiming it had no association with the shadowy and
clearly well-trained assailants, whom they claim arrived only after troops
opened fire on their unarmed protesters. Boonracong told ATol that the men in
black were "clearly military" and that "we don't know them, but we thank them".
On April 26, UDD co-leader Arisman Pongruangrong played grainy video footage to
reporters and protesters that purportedly showed one of the black-clad
assailants moving freely behind army lines, insinuating that they were
government plants to discredit the UDD. The figure highlighted in the video,
however, was dressed in yellow, not black.
Those denials and misrepresentations have strengthened certain diplomatic
suspicions that the UDD maintains an unacknowledged paramilitary wing, likely
organized and commanded by retired and active security forces who have
professed their loyalty to Thaksin. The diplomats believe that the paramilitary
element is likely behind much of the mysterious violence that has coincided
with the protests, including a bombing campaign across the national capital.
UDD co-leader Jaran Dittapichai told ATol two hours after the April 22 grenade
attacks on the Silom Road financial district that killed one and injured over
90 that the military staged the attacks to justify a coup and crackdown.
Reporters on the scene, however, recorded UDD supporters cheering when
ambulances arrived at a nearby hospital with pro-government protesters wounded
in the attacks.
Charged accusations
The US Embassy in a statement urged the UDD to condemn the grenade attacks -
which they hadn't done from their protest stage - while calling on the
government to exercise restraint. US officials have met with UDD co-leaders,
including Veera Musikapong and Jaran, during the protests to impress on them
Washington's perception that the UDD has provoked much of the violence,
including the events of April 10.
UDD spokesman Boonracong said that a US official had "incredible details" of
recent violence that he believed was gathered by the "CIA [Central Intelligence
Agency] and other on-the-ground informants". He said that US officials claimed
that the UDD had rigged compressed gas tanks to be used as bombs and stockpiled
automatic weapons in nearby buildings - claims Boonracong characterized as
"total bunk".
"The [US] ambassador has apparently made up his mind that we have become an
army and not a peaceful movement," said Boonracong, adding: "the US Embassy is
not as neutral as they say they are." ATol observed and spoke with one US
Embassy official who meticulously videotaped the UDD's march to smear blood at
Abhisit's personal residence on March 17.
Significantly, the US's accusations mirror many of the government's claims, and
raise questions about how much support the US and other Western intelligence
agencies have lent Abhisit and the military in helping to unravel the UDD's
complicated underground networks, financial flows and command structures -
including what role, if any, Thaksin has played in recent violent events.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said before the UDD's protests began in
mid-March that he had received intelligence from the US warning of possible
sabotage at the protests. The information, he said, was gleaned from tapped
telephone conversations between the Dubai-based Thaksin and his
Thailand-situated allies. The US Embassy has neither confirmed nor denied
Suthep's claims.
One international mediator with close ties to the government claims that
Western intelligence agencies provided "signals, communications and money
movement intelligence" about the UDD to the government. That could explain
government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn's unelaborated claims that he had
received information about irregular cash flows into Thailand from the Middle
East coinciding with the start of the UDD's rallies.
Abhisit made similar claims during an interview with foreign journalists,
saying the government had monitored "lots of money flows". He said the
government now had a clearer picture of the UDD's "second and third tier"
networks and the connections between people who ordered and perpetuated recent
violence.
Some diplomats have focused on a phone-in speech Thaksin made before the April
10 events in which he told UDD protesters to prepare for "sacrifices". After
that night's fatal armed exchanges, Thaksin assumed a low profile and in
limited comments to the press said that the UDD protests had "gone beyond him".
Abhisit said he would not speculate on Thaksin's motives for apparently going
to ground after the violence.
In a phone call this week to his allied opposition Puea Thai party, Thaksin
said he favored Abhisit's roadmap provided that all parties forgot the past,
forgave one another and looked to the future, according to local press reports.
At the same time, he indicated he had retained the services of an international
law firm, Amsterdam & Peroff, to "return democracy to Thailand".
Bangkok-based diplomats believe that it is more likely Thaksin is already
preparing legal defense strategies should the reconciliation roadmap falter and
the government attempt to extend its terrorism charges leveled against nine UDD
co-leaders to Thaksin as the group's perceived chief financier and strategic
mastermind.
The UDD had earlier worked assiduously to win US sympathies for its self-styled
democratic cause. After US officials criticized the UDD for violently
disrupting last year's Asian summit meeting at Pattaya, UDD representatives
followed up by making presentations to US ambassador Eric John to demonstrate
that government politicians also played a role in the chaos.
UDD representatives were known to have developed close ties with certain
Bangkok-based US diplomats, winning invitations to certain embassy social
events and private dinners. Many in pro-government circles were peeved last
year when ambassador John's wife dined in public at the Four Seasons hotel with
Thaksin's former wife and business partner, Pojaman Pombejra.
That warming trend cooled in March when the UDD rallied briefly in front of the
US Embassy, demanding an explanation about Suthep's intelligence claims of
planned sabotage. In an apparent bid to counter US criticism and divide
international opinion, Thaksin ordered the UDD to make a symbolic march to the
United Nations building in Bangkok to request UN peacekeeper protection for its
protest site.
The UDD made a similar call for sympathy last week at the European Commission's
Bangkok offices. It all points to a concerted and monied UDD effort to win over
international opinion, a strategy the UDD's violent tactics have undermined.
And while it is clear to most observers that both sides should share
responsibility for the recent deaths and losses, it seems that a
double-standards enforcing amnesty is the only sure way to keep the peace.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
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