Power brokers block Philippine paths to peace
By Fabio Scarpello
MANILA - The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Philippines' largest
Islamic rebel group, does not recognize the country's constitution or electoral
process. But senior insurgent members of the ethnic Moro group are closely
following the unfolding presidential campaign for how the result may pertain to
their stalled peace process with the government.
Polls show Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino and Senator Manuel "Manny" Villar as
the frontrunners, with former criminally convicted president Joseph Estrada
running a distant third. Voting takes place on May 10. Estrada told Asia Times
Online that if elected, "I would give the MILF a short period of time to accept
my conditions or go to war."
On his official website, Aquino says that he will assume direct
responsibility for the revival of the peace process with the MILF and that he
would involve a wide range of stakeholders, including traditional and local
government leaders, Muslim clerics, civil society groups and the Moro National
Liberation Front (MNLF), another rebel group following a separate track to
peace.
Villar has said he would link the peace process to the long-term economic
development of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), where the MILF
is situated. The ARMM ranks lowest nationwide in terms of life expectancy,
health, nutrition, literacy and other educational measures, with the exception
of Mindanao's Caraga region. Villar has also said he would aim to strengthen
Mindanao's governance and democracy.
Both Aquino and Villar, however, have said that the solution to the Moro
conflict must be found within the parameters of the constitution, a provision
that has been a stumbling block in the past. The MILF is no longer pushing for
independence, but its aim of shared sovereignty clashes with a provision in the
charter which states that autonomous regions can only be created within the
national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Manila-ruled republic.
Jaafar Ghazali, the MILF's vice chairman for political affairs, recently told
ATol in an interview that "the peace process will continue regardless of who
will be elected president". He noted that despite periods of armed conflict,
including with the outgoing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo administration, there had
been "continuity in MILF-government talks since 1997".
Ghazali said that the issue is not whether the process will continue, but
whether the next president will have the political will to push for a final
resolution. He said he considers Aquino "a good man" but is "surrounded by
anti-Moro people". He pointed specifically to Liberal Party vice president and
Senator Mar Roxas and Senator Franklin Drilon, who are running for re-election
under Aquino's party banner.
Both were openly opposed to the so-called Memorandum of Understanding on the
Ancestral Domain (MOU-AD) that was to be signed by the MILF and government on
August 5, 2008, but was rejected a day prior as unconstitutional by the Supreme
Court.
Manila-based politicians, including Roxas and Drilon, and certain
Mindanao-based political dynasties had cooperated to petition the Supreme
Court. The last minute rejection sparked new rounds of armed hostilities
between the two sides in North Cotabato, and Ghazali accuses the two senators
of inciting local violence against the MILF.
"That is why we think that an Aquino presidency will be dangerous for the
people waiting for a peaceful resolution of the conflict," Ghazali said.
He seemed somewhat more hopeful of a breakthrough under a Villar-led
administration. "He is a businessman and most of them are practical people. He
will weigh the pluses and minuses of the war and see that it is not sustainable
for the Philippines," Ghazali said.
On the other hand, Villar is thought to be supported by Christian families
living on the edges of the ARMM that strongly oppose any expansion of the area,
as has been called for by the MILF. Ghazali said that support "could be a
problem" in negotiating a potential peace deal with Villar.
That underscores the problem that many stakeholders, including Manila-based
politicians and their associated Mindanao-based power brokers, prefer the
status quo over granting more autonomy to the MILF. Any peace agreement would
alter the ARMM's power balance and have implications across Mindanao.
The region's various influential political families currently enjoy almost
total control over the affairs of their constituencies, as well as access to a
steady flow of funds, known as the Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA), from
Manila. The IRA is one of the largest sources of funds for most of Mindanao's
local governments.
Many of the families are represented in congress, especially at the House of
Representatives, which has control over the national budget and is the
institutional center of national power for local political bosses. There are an
estimated 250 political dynasties in the Philippines and according to the
Manila-based Center for People Empowerment in Governance, 106 of the 265
members of congress in 2007 hailed from political families.
Many analysts have pointed to the influence of the Lobregat family clan, which
holds sway over Zamboanga politics. The family strongly opposed the 1996 peace
deal signed between Manila and the MNLF and has weighed against the MILF-driven
peace process.
As pointed out by Australia's Lowry Institute in its 2006 report "Mindanao: A
Gamble Worth Taking", the Lobregat matriarch, Maria Clara Lorenzo-Lobregat,
joined Mindanao-based colleagues Daisy Avance Fuentes and Lualhati Antonino
(collectively known as the Tres Marias) in the House of Representatives to
block budgetary support for the 1996 peace deal.
Maria Clara's son, Celso, is currently the mayor of Zamboanga and was a leading
campaigner against the 2008 MOU-AD, where he worked in close cooperation with
Roxas and Drilon. Prospects for peace with the MILF would thus require Aquino
to break ranks with the powerful political families that have lent support to
his and his political allies' electoral bids.
While the language of peace has featured on both Aquino's and Villar's campaign
trail, translating that into government policy will be strongly resisted by
entrenched and powerful political forces - regardless of which candidate
prevails.
Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for Adnkronos
International. He may be contacted at fscarpello@gmail.com
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