'Bless you Mr Obama' on Myanmar
By Stanley A Weiss
MANDALAY - In September 1952, Russian dictator Joseph Stalin and Chinese
foreign minister Chou Enlai convened an extraordinary meeting to discuss the
future of Southeast Asia. As recorded in the book, Mao: The Unknown Story,
Chou talked about the region "as if its fate were to be entirely decided by
Peking".
He explained that China's strategy was to "exert peaceful influence without
sending armed forces", offering up the examples of Burma (Myanmar) and Tibet.
Stalin wryly replied, "Tibet is part of China - there must be Chinese troops
deployed. As for Burma, you should proceed carefully." Then, he confirmed, "It
would be good if there was a pro-China government in Burma."
Nearly 60 years later, it is striking how well Chou's hopes have
been realized. Chinese influence can be seen everywhere across the Southeast
Asian nation. Locals quip that Mandalay, once home to Burmese kings, should now
be renamed the "Capital of Yunnan", China's nearest province. In this city made
famous for its white marble carvings, it is telling that 80% of all new orders
are not to carve Myanmar-style statues, but rather Chinese-style Buddhas.
Less obvious is the Chinese presence in the remote northern regions, often
hidden from Western eyes. The fabled jade mines of Kachin State, off-limits to
most foreigners, host thousands of Chinese miners who send jade directly to
China. Not far away, an environmentally damaging hydroelectric plant has been
built by China, as one prominent business owner told this writer, "to cloak
huge illegal clear-felling of forests by the Chinese". Timber is moved along
two highways that run directly from Myanmar to China, constructed in secret
since 2004.
"The educated people of [Myanmar] know that China is looting their country of
valuable resources and giving nothing in return," a long-time Western observer
of the country said. "They would love to have an alternative trading partner."
But the West, through economic boycotts and sanctions, "has basically dealt
itself out of the game", says Thant Myint-U, grandson of former United Nations
secretary general U Thant. China has rushed to fill the void with billions in
aid and weapons sales to Myanmar's junta, which has ruled under different
generals since 1962.
But increasingly the feeling here is that the days must end for the United
States treating Myanmar as a "boutique" issue (as one Barack Obama surrogate
memorably said during the 2008 US presidential campaign) focused solely on
human rights and the fate of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Three recent
developments have shined a spotlight on US security interests in Myanmar, which
sits significantly at the crossroads between China and India.
Strategic concerns
First, there is a pipeline. In November, China announced it was constructing a
675-kilometer (480-mile) oil pipeline from China through Myanmar to the Indian
Ocean. As the world's second-largest oil user, China has long faced the
"Malacca Strait dilemma" - that 80% of its oil flows through the narrow strait
between Malaysia and Indonesia which a hostile power could choke off in a
conflict.
The new pipeline will help China avoid the Malacca Strait and give it access to
the Indian Ocean. Its a move that US ally India clearly fears. New Delhi
announced days after China revealed the plan that it would add 40 warships and
new fighter jets to its Indian Ocean arsenal. It is a potential flashpoint the
US does not need.
Second, there are Myanmar's nuclear ambitions. In 2002, the junta confirmed
plans to build a nuclear research reactor with Russian support. Army officers
have since undergone training in Moscow. Recent reports about a stealth deal
between Myanmar and North Korea to develop underground nuclear facilities have
led some to dub Myanmar "the next North Korea". "The nuclear issue," Myanmar
scholar Morten Pedersen says, "must be weighing heavy on minds in Washington -
and must be addressed."
Third, there is the spread of radical Islam in neighboring Bangladesh, where
the "astronomical growth of Islamists in the military", as scholar Sajeeb Wajed
Joy has written, has leapt from 5% in 2001 to 35% today. As crackdowns against
journalists and political opponents in Dhaka increase, the last thing the world
needs is for Myanmar to become a Pakistan on the Irrawaddy that allows
terrorist groups sanctuary in its remote northern regions.
The Obama administration has sought to begin a new conversation with Myanmar,
conducting the highest-level talks with the generals in more than a decade. But
aside from Senator James Webb - who visited Myanmar in 2009 - the US Congress
is not listening. "It's the usual congress full of ignorants, arrogants and
self-righteous fools," says Ma Thanegi, who spent three years in prison after
working as Suu Kyi's assistant. "Their tactics are helping to starve our
people. Bless you, Mr Obama."
Myanmar's parliamentary election scheduled for this year - the first since 1990
- is an opportunity, as Pedersen says, "to change the overall thrust of US
policy, to broaden its agenda in [Myanmar] to include peace-building and
economic reform." It is, adds Myanmar expert Robert Taylor, "a chance for the
US to counter-balance the growing power of China in Asia and the world."
Stanley A Weiss is Founding Chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington. This is a personal comment.
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