ASIA HAND Thaksin case raises specter of violence
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Thailand's United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD)
protest group has launched new anti-government street rallies in its latest
push to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's year-old coalition
government. The protests have sparked market fears of a chaotic repeat of last
April's UDD-led riots and could undo a 10-month period of relative political
calm.
While UDD leaders claim to be struggling for democracy and the rights of the
downtrodden, the mobilization comes conspicuously close to a Supreme Court
verdict on February 26 that many
expect will result in the state seizure of 76.6 billion baht (US$2.2 billion)
worth of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's and his family's frozen
assets.
Thaksin has consistently denied that he funds the red shirt-wearing UDD, but
the protest group has previously marched to the populist former leader's
orders, including his call last April from abroad - where he lives in
self-imposed exile - for a "social revolution" to overthrow the government. The
violence that ensued was put down by military force and saw a temporary surge
in popular support for Abhisit's government.
Some analysts note that the UDD has ever since failed to galvanize significant
numbers and has more clearly morphed into a pressure group in pursuit of
Thaksin's interests than an organic grassroots movement pushing for democratic
change. Many now view the UDD's tilt towards violence as a tactical misstep,
similar to the negative impact the rival yellow-garbed People's Alliance for
Democracy's seizure of Bangkok's two international airports in late 2008 had on
its mass appeal.
Now with the bulk of Thaksin's assets at risk of confiscation and the
government intensifying efforts to extradite him from his exile base in Dubai
in the United Arab Emirates, officials fear that Thaksin's more radical
supporters, including known rogue elements in the military and police, may
launch a campaign of violence in a bid to escalate the conflict and through
brinksmanship embolden Thaksin's calls for a royal pardon over his conviction
on corruption charges.
Those concerns arise from recent anonymous grenade attacks on army headquarters
and near Government House, the discovery of a C-4 laden explosive device near
the Supreme Court and veiled threats by a rogue military official loyal to
Thaksin that judges presiding over his assets case could be targeted for
assassination. One senior Democrat party member recently expressed his concerns
in discussions with a foreign mediator that the UDD is preparing to extend its
fight to the provinces by organizing armed anti-government militias along the
Cambodian border.
Mainstream UDD leaders maintain that they are committed to non-violence and
have insinuated that the military and government have manufactured threats to
justify a crackdown on their peaceful supporters. To guard against a repeat of
last April's violent UDD-led riots and a possible provincial insurrection, the
government has in recent weeks steadily mobilized joint civilian and security
force units across 38 provinces as well as in Bangkok.
Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn told foreign journalists on Thursday
that the government has made publicly available a 37-page document detailing
how security forces will lawfully respond to any UDD move towards violence. The
document, however, didn't explain the need to preemptively move armored
personnel carriers from the provinces to Bangkok, a redeployment that sparked
coup rumors in the local media.
The UDD's propagandists have claimed that the military is split along pro- and
anti-Thaksin lines and that the national police force is largely allied to
their cause. They have claimed that any violent suppression of their
demonstrators will be met by a mutiny among sympathetic soldiers and cops.
Top-ranking police were negligent in maintaining order during last April's
riots and Abhisit has reportedly worked closely with Police General Watcharapol
Prasarnrajkit to identify and sideline officials known for lingering loyalties
to Thaksin, himself a former police official. The upcoming rallies, some
analysts suggest, will put to the test the effectiveness of those maneuvers.
While Thaksin has lured a number of retired military officials into his
political camp, including most significantly former Internal Security
Operations Command (ISOC) deputy commander General Panlop Pinmanee, as well as
also rogue 4th Cavalry army specialist Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, his
influence among the active top brass has been systematically diminished through
a series of reshuffles, special rotations and demotions since the 2006 coup
that ousted Thaksin.
Coup-maker and current army commander General Anupong Paochinda is widely
believed by diplomats monitoring military affairs to have consolidated his
position over top command positions, including those instrumental in past
coups. They note that Anupong's reshuffles have also disproportionately
promoted his Queen's Guard clique and, according to some military watchers,
diluted Privy Council president and former army commander General Prem
Tinsulanonda's influence and enhanced that of Queen Sirikit over the forces.
Those reshuffles have also signaled a clear transition to deputy commander and
known royalist General Prayuth Chan-ocha when Anupong must retire in October
this year. Prayuth would be eligible to serve in the army's top position for
three consecutive years and, as a former Queen's Guard commander, would likely
be trusted in palace circles to manage security during the eventual royal
succession.
Some military watchers suggest that exclusive promotion of Queen's Guards over
other military regiments has sown resentment among the rank and file, with the
Special Forces seen as a particular source of discontent. That said,
intra-military tensions over reshuffle lists are nothing new and are not
expected to undermine unity as long as the widely revered 82-year-old King
Bhumibol Adulyadej remains on the throne.
Bhumibol has, after a period of ill health, made a number of recent public
appearances, including two televised addresses to local judges calling upon
them to adjudicate with "righteousness". The speeches, some analysts noted,
were similar in tone and message to the one he delivered to judges in the
run-up to the May 2007 court-ordered dissolution of Thaksin's former Thai Rak
Thai party.
Indeed, rifts are more evident in Thaksin's political camp and these could
widen if the upcoming Supreme Court verdict allows for the full seizure of his
assets. According to one UDD insider, the protest group is split between a camp
that desires to move away from Thaksin's personality politics and emphasize
more broadly democratic reform, and another led by those who have benefited
politically and financially through their association with the former premier.
It's unclear how Thaksin views the protest movement's future in light of its
waning popular pulling power. Notably, UDD top leaders publicly distanced
themselves from Panlop's recent call to establish a "people's army" among UDD
followers after an apparent meeting with Thaksin in Dubai. Meanwhile, the
Thaksin-aligned Peua Thai opposition party is riven with infighting over the de
facto leadership of rough-and-tumble machine politician and former police
official Chalerm Yoobamrung.
Some Bangkok-based diplomats suggest that Thaksin's post-coup reliance on
discredited politicians and rogue military and police elements to push his
agenda has further undermined his already questionable democratic credentials.
That, they say, will conspire against any future Thaksin bid to portray
government suppression of UDD protesters bent on violence as an anti-democratic
crackdown deserving of international censure - as he attempted in the chaotic
wake of last April's riots.
The US, for one, was publicly critical of the UDD-led April riots and has
recently told the group’s representatives that Washington puts diplomatic
priority on law and order, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Underscoring Thaksin's closing exile options, one Bangkok-based official notes
that his US visa has expired and that he would likely be held in "secondary"
confinement if he attempted to enter the country.
Other diplomats believe Thaksin's interests would be better served by him
fading into the political background after the upcoming verdict and
resurrecting his appeal for a royal pardon after the eventual royal succession
from Bhumibol to his heir-apparent son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. "But we
all know that fading into the background is not exactly his style," said the
diplomat.
But even if Thaksin and his supporters elect to sustain their campaign of
resistance in the landmark verdict's aftermath, some here sense that Thailand's
political conversation has already shifted beyond Thaksin and towards a more
genuine and inclusive discussion of the need for political and social reforms.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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