US gives Myanmar a tentative embrace
By Brian McCartan
BANGKOK - Senior United States representatives returned from a two-day
fact-finding trip to Myanmar on Thursday without any major breakthroughs, but
then they were not planning on any. In Myanmar, the United States appears to be
opting for a long-term strategy of dialogue leading to gradual improvements in
rights and democracy rather than demands for instant change.
Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, US ambassador to the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Scot Marciel, stressed the need for dialogue
within Myanmar. At the same time, he expressed little confidence in next year's
planned general elections and emphasized that the US will continue to use
sanctions as a powerful tool in its diplomacy.
Despite the wishful thinking that accompanies high-level diplomatic visits to
Myanmar, the November 3-4 visit by Marciel
and US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt
Campbell was designed to be "exploratory". The visit aimed at explaining the
Barack Obama administration's new policy on Myanmar to various parties
involved, including the government, democratic opposition and ethnic groups.
The US delegation met several ministers and government officials, including
Prime Minister Major General Thein Sein, Foreign Affairs Minister Nyan Win,
Minister for Information Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan and Minister of Science
and Technology U Thaung. It was also allowed to hold separate meetings with
ethnic representatives, and central committee members of the National League
for Democracy (NLD), as well as its general secretary, detained opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The visit built on the US announcement in September of a new pro-engagement
policy. An initial exchange occurred on the sidelines of the opening of the UN
General Assembly in New York on September 29 between Campbell and U Thaung.
During the recent discussions, according to Marciel, it was made clear to both
the nation's military leadership and the opposition that despite the new
emphasis on diplomatic engagement the US stance on Myanmar remains unchanged.
Marciel also stated that the new policy has not changed the US commitment to a
peaceful, prosperous, stable, unified and democratic Myanmar that respects the
rights of it citizens. He said the US is hoping that diplomatic engagement will
lead to greater dialogue between the government, the democratic opposition and
ethnic groups, resulting in change from within. The US, Marciel said, "is
willing to move ahead but there must be progress in the country".
Marciel stressed the need for dialogue between the regime, the democratic
opposition and the ethnic groups to move any process forward. "Fundamentally,
the problem is a lack of inclusive dialogue," he said. Dialogue should lead to
national reconciliation and a fully inclusive political process that should
allow for Suu Kyi to be free to meet with her party and others, he said.
Linking dialogue to next year's scheduled general elections, Marciel said he
would not consider the elections credible or legitimate without an inclusive
dialogue and the participation of key parties from the annulled 1990 elections.
Although Marciel said the US does not yet have a position on next year's
election, he also made it clear on several occasions during the press
conference that without the opposition, the elections would not be considered
credible "no matter how they were conducted". Marciel said the government
"could lose a huge opportunity if the elections are not inclusive".
The ruling military junta's notion of inclusiveness has proven to be selective.
Although the US delegation was allowed to meet some of the ethnic-based
political parties, including the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy,
Arakan League for Democracy and the Mon National Democracy Party, none of the
large groups that have ceasefire agreements with the government, or the
so-called national race leaders, were invited.
Instead of the United Wa State Army or the Kachin Independence Army - both of
which have thousands of armed soldiers and large areas under their control, as
well as the general support of their populations - the Americans were met by
Kachin, Pa-O, Karenni and Karen who, except for the Democratic Karen Buddhist
Army (DKBA), number only in the hundreds and are hardly representative of their
ethnic groups. Those groups, however, have agreed to go along with the junta's
plan to incorporate ethnic armies into a border guard force while political
wings from the ethnic groups compete in the elections.
The NLD won the 1990 elections in a landslide, but the regime annulled the
results claiming a constitution must first be drafted. That constitution was
finally "approved" in what was widely viewed as a rigged national referendum
last year. The US and dissident groups have repeatedly voiced disapproval of
the new constitution. Myanmar's main opposition party has said it wants an
amendment of the constitution before it is willing to take part in the 2010
elections. Marciel said this again showed the need for dialogue.
Sanctions debate
There has been much contention that the US may be moving towards dropping
economic sanctions against Myanmar that were first imposed in the late 1990s,
in a bid to counterbalance China's influence in the country. However, Marciel
yesterday reaffirmed the US's stance that sanctions remain a valuable tool in
dealing with the regime. His statement was tempered by acknowledgement that
sanctions had not worked.
This echoes statements made by both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and
Campbell during the announcement of the new policy and in hearings before the
US Senate on September 30 and the House Foreign Affairs Committee on October
21. The US has also made it clear in previous statements that it reserves the
right to increase sanctions should Myanmar's rulers increase their repression,
as they did during the violent crackdown on anti-government demonstrators in
September 2007.
In announcing the policy, Campbell said that sanctions would remain in place
until concrete progress is made towards democratic reform. Although a direct
line has not been drawn, it is clear that if the regime wants any movement on
the removal of sanctions it will have to open serious talks with both the
democratic opposition and the ethnic minority groups.
Marciel noted that new armed offensives against ethnic minority groups would be
a step in the wrong direction. However, he did not say whether renewed attacks
on groups active along the Chinese border would necessarily warrant increased
sanctions.
The Myanmar army was involved in attacks on ethnic Karen insurgents in eastern
Myanmar in July and carried out an offensive against the ethnic Kokang in
August that resulted in some 35,000 refugees fleeing to China.
America's dialogue, of course, is not based solely on improved human rights and
nudging the generals towards an inclusive political process and democracy; it
also aims to check growing strategic cooperation between Myanmar and North
Korea and the strong inroads China has made in the country.
Marciel reiterated that reports of military and nuclear cooperation between
Myanmar and North Korea necessitated a need for information sharing and
dialogue. The US previously thanked Myanmar for turning back a North Korean
cargo ship in July carrying probable military hardware in violation of United
Nations resolutions.
China's involvement in Myanmar received no mention during the press conference.
However, many security analysts believe that a new emphasis on countering
Chinese influence in Southeast Asia may be behind the US's engagement gambit
with Myanmar.
Some China watchers have commented that there is a belief among some Chinese
officials that the August meeting between US Senator Jim Webb and Myanmar
leaders may have motivated the assault on the Kokang later that month. Although
that was unlikely, Chinese officials are worried that engagement with the US
could empower the junta to take less notice of Chinese concerns.
Myanmar's generals have so far appeared eager to engage with the US, but it is
unclear yet how far that will go. Since the US policy announcement in
September, there has been plenty of saber-rattling in the north of Myanmar to
force ethnic ceasefire groups to agree to the border guard force plan. This
plan, however, threatens to push Myanmar back into a large-scale civil war,
even at the risk of angering China, which has supported the ceasefire groups.
In eastern Myanmar, Karen relief officials claim army operations have resulted
in the displacement of 2,500 Karen villagers since early October. Speculation
is rife along the Thai-Myanmar border of another offensive by the Myanmar Army
and its ally the DKBA later this year against Karen guerillas.
There has also been little movement on the political front. Around 7,000
prisoners were released in August, but only about 200 had been detained for
political offenses. According to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for
Political Prisoners (AAPP) the total number of political prisoners has
increased by forty-nine in the past month to 2,168.
Also, Suu Kyi, although allowed to meet several foreign diplomats and the
American delegation, remains under house arrest. An offer by the junta this
week to allow her to meet with her NLD party was declined since the party's
chairman, U Tin Oo, also under house arrest, would not be allowed to attend.
Marciel claimed that while the Obama administration's new engagement with
Myanmar has been criticized partly on the basis of past failed diplomatic
efforts, the US was going into the process under "no illusions". He said the US
could either not try at all and maintain a policy based largely on sanctions,
or try discussions but with a clear eye to the failures of the past.
He said he expected a "series of conversations" between US and Myanmar
officials to take place in the future. Initial discussions have been carried
out by Campbell and Marciel, but US legislation introduced in 2007 and known as
the Tom Lantos JADE Act calls for the appointment of a special envoy to
Myanmar.
The envoy has yet to be named; Marciel indicated that the process was in hand.
He made it clear that Secretary of State Clinton would not meet Myanmar Prime
Minister Thein Sein on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit in Singapore
later this month, without ruling out lower level meetings. The summit will also
be attended by Obama.
Marciel said talks with Myanmar were in their early days and he refused to
speculate on their impact on future actions of the regime. "It will take time
to see how they respond," he said. "I don't want to predict progress."
With the 2010 elections only months away and the NLD's participation doubtful,
and threatening postures being taken against the ethnic groups, immediate
progress seems unlikely in the near future.
Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached
at brianpm@comcast.net.
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