Realpolitik revealed in Myanmar release
By Brian McCartan
BANGKOK - United States Senator Jim Webb's trip to military ruled Myanmar
highlights again the difficulties of dealing with the ruling generals and
brings into focus the debate over the usefulness of sanctions and the perceived
growing influence of China in the region.
Webb flew into the capital of Myanmar, Naypyidaw, on Friday and held two days
of discussions with senior regime leaders. The visit marked the second time
Webb has traveled to Myanmar; he went previously as a private citizen in 2001.
His trip as chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Sub-committee is part
of a five-country fact-finding tour to explore opportunities for expanding US
interests in the region. The visit made Webb the first US
congressman in a decade to visit Myanmar.
At a press conference in Bangkok on Sunday, Webb said he made three requests of
the generals: consider the release of John Yettaw on humanitarian grounds;
grant permission for a meeting with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi; and
consider his "strong recommendation" to free Suu Kyi and allow her full
participation in the political process.
To the surprise of some in the exile community, Webb was successful on the
first two counts, but as expected Webb received, as he said, "no communication
yet on number three". He secured the release of American citizen John Yettaw,
who was sentenced to seven years of jail and hard labor for swimming across a
Yangon lake and entering Suu Kyi's compound.
The international community, particularly among Western countries, was quick to
condemn last week's verdict against Suu Kyi, which sentenced her to 18 months
under house arrest. The European Union stepped up sanctions by including judges
and some government-owned publications on its list of officials and members of
the regime banned in the EU.
The verdict came amid a review of Myanmar policy by the Barack Obama
administration. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton commented during a February
visit to the region that sanctions had not brought the expected results and
that the US was seeking ways to move forward. Much speculation has ensued since
about the possible outcome of the review.
There have been signs that the US is considering closer engagement with the
generals. During his confirmation hearings in June, new Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell said that the US was
"prepared to reach out" to Myanmar, but the arrest of Suu Kyi made it
"difficult to go forward". Clinton last month during a call for the release of
Suu Kyi said, "This would open up, at least for my government, a lot of
opportunities for engagement, and that includes investment and other forms of
exchange."
With the arrest and sentencing of Suu Kyi, there are seemingly few options for
the US but to continue with its sanctions regime. In May, Obama renewed the
1997 Investment Ban for American companies wishing to do business in Myanmar
and in July he renewed the Burma Freedom and Democracy Act, which bans for
another three years the importation of goods from Myanmar. Both Obama and
Clinton condemned the verdict against Suu Kyi, labeling it an injustice and
demanding her release. Clinton had also called for the release of Yettaw.
Some analysts see parallels in Webb's visit to conciliatory moves the Obama
administration has made with other totalitarian regimes. In an overture to Iran
in January, Obama said in an interview with al-Arabiya, "If countries like Iran
are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us."
The most recent example is former president Bill Clinton's visit to North
Korea, which secured the release of two detained American journalists and
sparked hopes of a thaw in US-North Korean relations.
The Obama administration gave its blessing to Webb's trip to Myanmar, leaving
the impression his was a similar attempt to foster goodwill. Webb, while
hopeful some confidence and goodwill had been built by the trip, made it clear
at the press conference that he was acting only as a US senator and not as an
envoy of the Obama administration. He claims he only offered the regime his own
thoughts and perspectives on how the outside world views Myanmar.
However, he did "strongly offer" the suggestion that the US wanted to be
involved in Myanmar's electoral process scheduled for next year. "I believe it
is impossible for the rest of the world to believe elections are free and fair
if Aung San Suu Kyi is not released and the NLD [National League for Democracy]
should be included [in the election process]," he told the regime.
Special access
Webb may have been acting in his capacity as chairman of the East Asia and
Pacific Affairs Sub-committee and not as a diplomatic official, but he was
granted access to both Senior General Than Shwe, the country's reclusive
leader, and surprisingly Suu Kyi. In comparison, United Nations special
rapporteur to Myanmar, Ibarahim Gambari, had been consistently denied an
audience with Than Shwe, and has consistently been denied access to Suu Kyi
since August last year. Even UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon was rebuffed in
attempts to hold a meeting with Than Shwe in the wake of last year's
destructive Cyclone Nargis.
Some observers think intense international and regional pressure led to the
Webb meetings, while others believe it is because of Webb's known
anti-sanctions and pro-engagement stance. Still others say it is part of an
attempt by the regime to court better relations with the US, possibly at the
urging of China. Webb claims the meetings were a result of several months of
negotiation with the government.
Webb called the regime's release of Yettaw and their granting of meetings with
Suu Kyi and members of her NLD party, "a hopeful gesture". However, many
analysts and members of the exile political community are not as hopeful. They
say Webb is simply playing into the hands of the regime, particularly in
consideration of the timing of the visit directly after the Suu Kyi verdict,
and will be used to validate the junta's position. A letter sent to Webb from
three groups inside Myanmar expressed amazement that he would travel to Myanmar
at this time.
Yettaw's release was not a major diplomatic breakthrough. Several foreigners
have been arrested in Myanmar for involvement in politics in the past 20 years,
including Briton Rachel Goldwyn, who was arrested for singing pro-democracy
songs in central Yangon in 1999, and another Briton, James Mawdsley, who was
arrested three different times between 1997 and 1999. Almost all of them were
released within days or weeks, usually accompanied by statements from the
regime about its leniency and hopeful statements from governments of new
windows of opportunity.
Critics claim the release of Yettaw and discussions between Myanmar government
officials and Webb are a way for the regime to deflect international criticism
in the wake of the Suu Kyi verdict. According to Aung Din, executive director
of the US Campaign for Burma (Myamnar), "This is just Senior General Than Shwe
giving an award to Senator Webb for his efforts on US engagement with the
regime, increasing US business opportunities in [Myanmar] and his opposition to
sanctions."
Webb said his trip had "laid a foundation of goodwill and confidence building
so we can have a better solution in the future". He predicated that "solution",
however, on the goal of bringing freedom and democracy to Myanmar. Webb's
stance on Myanmar seems to hinge on increased diplomatic engagement and the
eventual removal of sanctions.
Webb is a vocal opponent of economic and financial sanctions against Myanmar,
claiming that they only serve to isolate the regime while denying the country's
people exposure to outside political and economic ideas that could help bring
change. Sanctions, he has argued, have denied opportunities to American
businesses and undercut US influence in the country. In March, Webb called
sanctions "counter-productive in terms of our ability to affect the
difficulties faced by the [Myanmar] people".
At Sunday's press conference in Bangkok, Webb said governments should speak
more directly and individually and collectively to put pressure on China,
Myanmar's main patron and ally. "Those calling for sanctions should now be
encouraging China to join in finding a solution to Myanmar's internal
stalemate," he said. "China has an obligation to end its silence and assist in
ending the Aung San Suu Kyi situation."
Critics of sanctions have noted that neighbors Thailand, India and especially
China have increased their investments while the West attempts to isolate the
country. Judging from his comments, Webb seems to think that increased Chinese
influence in Myanmar is dangerous both to the country and the larger region.
"My own idea is that sanctions only work when you have all the countries
involved participating," Webb said.
He said growing Chinese influence "affects the balance in Southeast Asia" and
is "unhealthy to the region". It is necessary, he said, to preserve the vital
balance of power among the nations of Southeast Asia as the region continues to
evolve. China and Southeast Asia analysts often view China's deployment of
"soft power" initiatives in the region as diminishing US influence,
particularly after Washington prioritized post September 11, 2001,
counter-terrorism policies in the region.
Webb's views on Myanmar are not popular with Myanmar's exile community, despite
his careful wording of ending sanctions and isolation for "the Myanmar people".
Its clear to most that Webb and the Obama administration have larger
realpolitik goals of containing China in mind.
Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached
at brianpm@comcast.net.
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