Myanmar silences Suu Kyi - again
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - As widely anticipated, the Lady was found guilty.
A heavily guarded court attached to Myanmar's notorious Insein prison ruled on
Tuesday that pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was guilty of violating the
terms of a previous five-year house arrest order, sentencing her to three years
in prison.
In an apparent bid to blunt international criticism, the military run
government promptly reduced her sentence to one and a half years, which she
will be allowed to serve at her lakeside home in the old capital Yangon. Suu
Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has spent 16 of the past 20 years under
house arrest.
The sentence will effectively preclude her involvement in upcoming
multi-party elections, tentatively scheduled for 2010. It will also likely put
the military regime on a new collision course with the United States, which
maintains a raft of trade and investment sanctions against the rights-abusing
regime, including recent sanctions barring the import to the US of all gems
sourced in Myanmar.
In the lead-up to the verdict, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had
offered the carrot of possible new US investments in exchange for the release
of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. President Barack Obama's
administration had also earlier hinted at the possibility of reviewing US
policy towards Myanmar, though any conciliatory gestures towards the military
regime were expected to be an uphill battle in Congress.
The verdict against Suu Kyi is expected to dampen those diplomatic overtures
and will likely prompt Obama's administration to take a harder line towards the
military regime. That could include greater scrutiny of information emerging
about Myanmar's ties to US adversary North Korea, including potential recent
exchanges of missile and nuclear know-how.
Until now the US has been mum on news reports about growing military and
apparent nuclear ties between the two hermit regimes. That will likely change
after US Senator Jim Webb visits Myanmar in the weeks ahead, representing the
first elected US official to tour the country in over a decade.
Whether the US under Obama now decides to take as hard a line as the previous
George W Bush administration, which frequently referred to Myanmar as an
"outpost of tyranny", will be influenced by how great a threat Myanmar's
weapons ambitions are perceived to pose to regional security and US strategic
interests, including the use of military facilities in neighboring Thailand.
Bilateral relations will also be complicated by Tuesday's conviction of John
Yettaw, an American citizen who was sentenced to seven years' hard labor on
charges related to immigration offenses and swimming in a non-swimming area.
The government-controlled media had hinted in previous commentaries that Yettaw
was an American spy, but it's become apparent to most observers that he was
likely a well-intentioned, if not slightly deranged, private citizen acting on
his own behalf. He told the court he swam across the lake to warn Suu Kyi about
a vision he had that she would be targeted for assassination by terrorists.
The regime was clearly spooked that a guilty verdict against Suu Kyi could lead
to rounds of unrest across the country. Hours after the verdict was read, there
were no immediate indications of street protests or other unrest.
The state mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar newspaper threatened that "The people
who favor democracy do not want to see riots and protests that can harm their
goal".
"Anti-government groups inside and outside the nation and the United States are
accusing the government of deterring Aung San Suu Kyi from standing for
election," the paper continued, according to wire reports. "The approved
constitution and the forthcoming election law will decide who will be entitled
and who will not be entitled to stand for election."
Yet the verdict against Suu Kyi may ensure that her National League for
Democracy (NLD) party, which swept the 1990 elections that the military later
annulled, will boycott the upcoming polls. Their boycott would discredit the
military's democratic exercise in the eyes of the international community,
particularly from the perspective of the US and European Union.
The verdict is also expected to put renewed pressure on the United Nations to
take a harder line against the regime. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon was
forbidden to visit Suu Kyi during a recent trip to Myanmar, where he held two
separate meetings with the junta's top leader, Senior General Than Shwe.
According to reports, Than Shwe impressed on Ban his intention to move towards
democracy and civilian rule. Myanmar's ambassador to the United Nations even
indicated - apparently disingenuously - his government's intention to release
political prisoners so that they could take part in the upcoming polls and that
the junta would consider allowing outside observers to monitor the polls.
Some Myanmar analysts believe that if Suu Kyi's verdict is received calmly by
the population that the military will soon move to establish an interim
civilian regime to govern in the run-up to next year's polls. Such a move would
allow various military leaders to trade their khakis for business suits and
head out onto the campaign trail.
But Suu Kyi's absence will be conspicuous on that campaign trail, both
domestically and internationally, and Myanmar will likely be just as isolated
under supposed democratic civilian leadership as it is currently under
authoritarian military rule.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online’s Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com
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