MANILA - Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo delivered a combative
state of the nation address on Monday, attacking her opposition critics and
defending her administration's record. Threatened by boycotts from opposition
lawmakers and overshadowed by former president and sharp administration critic
Corazon Aquino's deteriorating health, the embattled Arroyo impressed in her
own defense.
However, what was left unsaid will largely define her presidential legacy,
according to polls the most unpopular administration since the dark days of the
Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship. Arroyo emotively refuted ongoing criticism that
she and her political supporters seek to extend her tenure beyond its legally
mandated term limit next year. "I have never expressed the desire to extend
myself beyond my term," said Arroyo, the second-longest serving president in
Philippine history.
"I never declared martial law," she added, downplaying recent speculation in
the media that her administration may have had a hand in a recent spate of
bombings. The charge was that by declaring a state of emergency of martial law
Arroyo could justify suspending democracy and extending her tenure, as former
dictator Marcos did to evade term limits and maintain his grip on power in
1972.
Arroyo did declare a state of emergency for one week in early 2007, providing
legal cover for security forces to harass her critics. Now, her supporters in
the lower House of Representatives have indicated plans to call a constituent
assembly, a move that could pave the way for constitutional changes, including
a move towards a political system led by a prime minister rather than
president. That, in theory, would allow Arroyo to stand again the national
leadership.
While Arroyo did not categorically rule out such a scenario, her speech sounded
more like a farewell address than campaign rally. Nor did she mention national
priorities for the upcoming year, but rather listed her government's
accomplishments beginning from when she was first catapulted to power in 2001
through popular street protests that toppled president Joseph Estrada.
The most applauded segment of her speech came when she thanked the people for
allowing her to serve as president. At the same time, the address took hard aim
at her opponents, including ally-cum-critic Jose de Venecia, a former speaker
of the House of Representatives. De Venecia has cited supposed inside
information in making claims that Arroyo's supporters intend one way or another
to extend her term.
To her critics, Arroyo will be remembered for failing to bring down - as she
promised - severely high poverty rates and sustaining rather than uprooting a
culture of corruption through the various scandals that often pointed to the
top of her administration, several involving her husband, Mike Arroyo. As
Arroyo defensively pointed out during her address, few if any of the corruption
allegations against her have stuck. Arroyo said she was frequently "falsely
accused without proof of using my office for personal profit".
"I am accused of misgovernance. Many of those who accuse me of it left me the
problem of their misgovernance to solve. And we have done it," Arroyo said.
"Those who should be in jail should not threaten, especially if they have been
in there," she added in an obvious dig at Estrada, who was found guilty of
economic plunder but granted a presidential pardon.
Unpopular economics
When the US-trained economist Arroyo assumed office in 2001, she said that
while the rest of Asia was surging economically the Philippines was on the
brink of bankruptcy. She claimed that during her eight years as national leader
that the Philippine economy was strong and that the country had weathered the
global economic crisis comparatively well.
The economy under Arroyo posted uninterrupted growth for 33 consecutive
quarters, even while many regional economies slipped towards negative growth,
including in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Over the seven-year period
spanning 2001 to 2008, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew at its
fastest pace in over four decades, she claimed. Meanwhile the public debt ratio
declined from 78% of GDP in 2000 to 55% in 2008.
Arroyo also said that some 7 million entrepreneurs gained from 165 billion
pesos (US$3.4 billion) distributed in state-administered microfinance funds,
that over 1 million families gained from a government housing loan program, and
700,000 families benefited directly from her agrarian reforms. She claimed some
8 million jobs were created under her watch, including the construction work
for 98,000 new classrooms and 60,000 new teacher positions.
"That is good news for our people and bad news for our critics," Arroyo said.
She blamed her chronically poor popularity ratings "for doing the right thing"
by implementing tough but unpopular economic reforms.
Critics note that despite Arroyo's cheerleading, Philippine growth still lagged
behind major Southeast Asian countries throughout her tenure. They note that
Philippine economic growth dipped to 0.4% in the first quarter of this year
compared to the same period last year and is at risk of turning negative in the
second quarter.
Economist Roehlano Briones said one reason for the underperformance was endemic
corruption, which has severely undercut growth potential and investor
confidence. He said foreign direct investment had slowed to a crawl under
Arroyo, with most of the inflows concentrated in a few industries such as
business processing and service outsourcing. The economy has instead relied on
the remittances of over 10 million overseas workers, the majority of whom left
because of the lack of economic opportunities at home.
Those hard on-the-ground realities have contributed to her abysmal satisfaction
ratings, which currently stands at -31, according to the independent Social
Weather Station (SWS) polling agency. SWS polls show that since 2004, Arroyo is
the most unpopular Philippine president ever. None of her recent predecessors,
including Aquino, Fidel Ramos and Estrada, ever saw their public satisfaction
ratings dip into negative territory, although they all received their fair
share of criticism.
Arroyo's poor ratings are partially a reflection of the still unresolved
vote-rigging allegations that undermined her 2004 election win. The scandal,
known locally as "Hello Garci" after the name of the election commissioner she
was taped speaking to on the telephone about poll counts before official
results had been announced, will in many ways define her legacy. Arroyo later
apologized on national TV for her "lapse in judgment", explaining that she
merely wanted to protect her votes.
Despite historically high economic growth rates, Briones said her low ratings
also indicated that faster economic activity in the main bypassed the poor.
There was hardly any reduction in poverty under Arroyo, in which by some
measures over one-third of the population is mired. That includes no noticeable
progress on the southern island of Mindanao, where poverty rates are highest
and unemployed youth are often lured into joining Muslim insurgencies.
Arroyo promised when she ran for president in 2004 to bring peace and
investment to Mindanao by the end of her term. With less than a year left in
her tenure, neither has materialized. Nor has she made good on a promise to
"crush terrorism", judging by the recent spate of bombings in both Metro Manila
and Mindanao. "There is no question everyone wants peace. But she has failed to
clearly state how she plans to do this," said Senator Rodolfo Biazon after
Arroyo's speech.
But perhaps the biggest blot on Arroyo's record, which also was not mentioned
in her address, is the extraordinary rise of human-rights violations and
extrajudicial killings, committed on a scale not seen since the days of the
dictatorial Marcos regime. That's raised uncomfortable questions about the
health of Philippine democracy. And as long as Arroyo remains in power, they
are crimes that apparently will go unpunished, yet they will weigh heavily
against her presidential legacy.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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