PENANG - Malaysia's politics is still in
flux after this month's watershed general election
in which opposition parties made their sharpest
inroads into the government since the country
gained independence in 1957. And the ruling
Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, comprised of 13
component parties, is still struggling to come to
terms with the implications of the setback.
Although BN parties won 140 of
Parliament's 222 seats, it lost five states to the
opposition, including three of the wealthiest and
economically important ones in the federation. Now
the ruling coalition is being unnerved by talk of
possible defections of its parliamentarians to
opposition ranks, which now has 82 seats.
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who
predicted the BN would garner a two-thirds
majority at the polls, looks
considerably
weaker inside his once dominant
United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party.
He has since the polls endured public calls for
his resignation from Mukhriz Mahathir, the son of
Abdullah's predecessor, Mahathir Mohamad. The
elder Mahathir had made it clear earlier that he
thought Abdullah fit to be a one-term premier,
paving the way for his deputy, Najib Razak, to
take over.
Moreover, Abdullah's
post-election decision to trim the size of the
cabinet and reshuffle its ranks did not please
several influential UMNO factions, including those
in Sabah and Sarawak, which contributed 54
parliamentary seats, or 39% of the BN's total of
140. They reportedly are peeved that they are not
more strongly represented in the new cabinet.
In the meantime, there is also mounting
speculation that Mahathir's former archrival,
Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, a former finance
minister, could mount a challenge against Abdullah
in intra-party elections for UMNO's leadership,
which are due in December. Abdullah routinely
swept the last intra-party leadership elections.
Political events could flow thick and fast
in the coming months. Opposition icon Anwar
Ibrahim's ban from holding political office
expires next month, and his every movement is
already being closely watched. There is increasing
speculation that one of his People's Justice Party
members could step down and force a by-election,
which would allow Anwar to enter Parliament as
opposition leader, as his party holds the most
seats in the opposition.
He is already
being referred to as the "prime
minister-in-waiting" by his colleagues in the
other two parties in the opposition alliance,
namely the Democratic Action Party and the Parti
Islam Se-Malaysia, commonly known as Pas.
Parliament reopens in May and first on the
agenda could be a no-confidence motion against
Abdullah. If such a motion is raised, it is still
likely that the embattled premier would survive,
as the opposition alliance, at least for now, does
not have the numbers to oust him.
There is
also speculation that Razaleigh could move to
force an UMNO extraordinary general meeting, which
some suggest could be used to amend nomination
rules and make it easier for a challenger to
contest the party presidency. UMNO's general
assembly has been pushed back to December, still
earlier than the 2009 date for which several party
officials have lobbied. The reasons for the delay
are obvious: factionalism is taking grip of the
party and threatens to blow into full-blown
schisms in the wake of the party's lackluster
election performance.
Heightened
vulnerability Abdullah already seems
more vulnerable, particularly after he was forced
to back down to the sultans of two states - Perlis
and Trengganu - who refused to approve his choice
of chief minister. Many expect Razaleigh to make a
move to challenge Abdullah for the presidency of
UMNO in December.
Beneath the surface, it
is likely there will be major realignments within
the party. Abdullah's arch-critic, Mahathir, has
thrown his support behind Razaleigh's call to hold
an emergency general meeting (EGM). "I fully
support Tengku Razaleigh's idea to hold the EGM,
but about choosing the president, it should come
later. The issue is UMNO, not the president," said
Mahathir, according to press reports.
He
had earlier proposed that Abdullah take
responsibility for the ruling coalition's
electoral setback and step down. It is no secret
that the former premier would prefer deputy prime
minister Najib Razak to take the party's reins.
However, many political analysts believe Najib
carries too much political baggage and could prove
to be a divisive choice to succeed Abdullah.
For his part, Razaleigh has until now
waited patiently in the wings - and some are
already speculating that a
Razaleigh-Mahathir-Najib alliance of convenience
is coalescing against Abdullah in the runup to
UMNO's December elections. Not everyone, however,
fancies the idea of any of those three taking over
UMNO, even those who are critical of the present
administration.
"As much as I have big
problems with Badawi, I still prefer him to anyone
associated with or having the backing of
Mahathir," said Wong Kok Keong, a Malaysian media
communications lecturer. "I think [Abdullah] is
[relatively more] democratic at heart - unlike
Mahathir."
"I do hope Badawi will find a
way to do the tough act of instituting reforms as
he has till December, when he might be forced
out," he added. "At least then he can say he
really tried to do something for the country
instead of [just] for UMNO and the BN." To be
sure, it will be tough for the weakened Abdullah
to follow through on judicial reforms and
promoting better governance. Already many of
Abdullah's mega-projects, under his various
regional economic corridor projects, are in doubt
following the opposition capture of five state
governments, including three of the most developed
states on the western coast - Penang, Perak and
Selangor.
By losing access to these
industrialized states, UMNO's ability to dish out
patronage to cronies and allies could diminish.
With people like his influential son-in-law,
Khairy Jamaluddin, who has been widely blamed for
Abdullah's loss in popularity, still lurking
behind the scenes, some argue there's little scope
for Abdullah to win back lost confidence.
The prime minister has already appointed
respected corporate lawyer Zaid Ibrahim to his new
cabinet to implement judicial reforms. One Kuala
Lumpur-based analyst told Asia Times Online he
believed the appointment was aimed at check-mating
Mahathir, who was instrumental in undermining the
independence of the judiciary after 1988, when the
Lord President and five other Supreme Court judges
were suspended.
In the meantime, Abdullah
will have to be on guard on all fronts, from
potential challengers within the ranks of his
party to the Anwar-led opposition alliance, who
are poised to lure defections from disillusioned
BN parliamentarians - especially those from Sabah
and Sarawak - and seize control of federal power.
Abdullah faces a rough ride in the months ahead
and few now are wagering that he will last the
distance.
Anil Netto is a
Penang-based writer.
(Copyright 2008
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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