Intrigue and illness in Myanmar's
junta By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - This month's surprise
announcement in Myanmar of a planned national
referendum on a new constitution in May and
multi-party democratic elections by 2010 are all
part of Senior General Than Shwe's game plan to
hold onto power and ensure his family's interests
are secured. The question now is whether or not
the junta leader's health will hold out that long.
Than Shwe sent a clear message to his
subordinates, including for junta number two
General Maung Aye, that he intends to maintain his
hold on power as Myanmar makes the move from
military to civilian government, and also to the
United Nations and international community that
his plans - rather than outside mediation efforts
- will decide the country's political future.
The announcement notably came after months
of inertia inside the
military hierarchy, as the
75-year-old Than Shwe was apparently hobbled by
cardiac surgery and transfixed with efforts to
keep in check his deputy and rival, Maung Aye. The
junta's second-ranking official woke to hear the
announcement on state radio and was not informed
beforehand of the timetable for implementing the
supposed democratic reforms, according to
government sources in the capital Naypyidaw.
The planned referendum and elections
indicate Than Shwe's new determination to press
forward with the country's so-called "roadmap to
democracy", which will ensure a continued role for
the military in governance. "Than Shwe obviously
now feels he is secure enough in his position ...
to push on with some measure of reform," said the
Myanmar academic Win Min. "His failing health may
also have prompted him to move at this time, as he
may fear that time is running out for him."
The move also comes at a time when
internal pressures are mounting, including growing
frustration within the army over the lack of
promotions and pay rises, and a growing clamor
from the country's business community for economic
stability and liberalizing reforms. Significantly,
the junta's top 12 generals are scheduled to meet
to discuss political and economic reforms in the
coming weeks.
If so, it will represent the
first "quarterly" meeting of the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) in over eight months
and the first since the military's brutal
crackdown on Buddhist monk-led demonstrations last
September.
They are also expected to
discuss the reorganization of the military in the
light of recent major intelligence failures and a
growing number of desertions, especially in the
country's ethnic eastern regions, according to
military sources close to Than Shwe.
Some
analysts contend there is growing dissension among
the ranks, as the ailing Than Shwe becomes more
reclusive and his top chief subordinates Maung
Aye, who is seen as a potential rival to the top
general, and General Thura Shwe Mann, a known
loyalist, jockey for position.
A major
turning point in the competition occurred nearly
six months ago, when Maung Aye was replaced as the
head of the junta's powerful Trade Council, right
before the beginning of the August unrest. Maung
Aye was also reportedly replaced as military chief
during last year's protests, where Thura Shwe Mann
took charge of security arrangements, including
suppression of the demonstrations, and commenced
chairing crucial National Security Council
meetings on Than Shwe's orders.
Since the
crackdown, however, the wheels of government have
reportedly ground to a halt. "Ministers have been
told directly by Than Shwe that he does not need
to be consulted on any issue, other than those
related to political or foreign policy issues,"
said a military source, who spoke on condition of
anonymity. But because officials fear making any
moves that could be perceived as a challenge to
Than Shwe's power, decision-making is in gridlock,
according to the source.
"There's total
inertia in [the capital] Naypyidaw. No one dares
make a decision, even in regard to the smallest
matters without approval from the top, which is
rarely forthcoming," a senior government official
recently confided to a Western diplomat who spoke
with Asia Times Online.
That is largely
because until now Than Shwe has been preoccupied
with personal concerns, including how to maintain
power despite his declining health and how to
ensure the dominant position of his family once he
eventually passes.
"Than Shwe continues to
follow his trusted approach - divide and rule,"
according to Win Min. "He did this successfully
before, preserving his position by pitting Maung
Aye against the then-military intelligence chief
Khin Nyunt." Nyunt was ousted in a 2004 internal
purge.
Divide and misrule This
time Than Shwe's "divide-and-rule" policy is
becoming ever more intricate and difficult to hold
together. "Than Shwe has developed a chessboard of
counterbalancing influences, both inside the
cabinet and the military hierarchy, to maintain an
equilibrium that keeps Thura Shwe Mann in check
and Maung Aye sidelined," a senior military source
told Asia Times Online.
The players in the
middle are represented by the Boards of Special
Operations, or BSOs, which oversee the influential
regional commanders, and factions within the
cabinet led by a handful of older pro-Than Shwe
ministers, including Planning Minister Soe Tha and
Information Minister Kyaw Hsan. Together the
groups are meant to act as checks and balances on
Thura Shwe Mann.
This, however, is only a
temporary measure, as most of the BSOs and older
government ministers are expected to step down
after Than Shwe carries out his planned shakeup of
the military and government administration. This
is expected to happen after the next SPDC
quarterly meeting, but could be further delayed
until after the Burmese Buddhist New Year, or
Thingyan, in mid-April.
A series of
damaging intelligence failures, including unsolved
bombings in the new capital and in Yangon, and the
failure to prevent last year's mass
demonstrations, has prompted Than Shwe to
undertake a major restructuring of the armed
forces. Most significantly, he recently
reappointed Major General Kyaw Win, the former
deputy intelligence chief under ousted
intelligence chief Khin Nyunt, on a 500,000 kyat
(roughly US$80,000) monthly budget to run an
intelligence training school.
"The junta's
main concerns now are to improve military
intelligence gathering and assessment," said a
former European military attache in Yangon, who
remains in close contact with sources in Myanmar
and who spoke to Asia Times Online on the
condition of anonymity. Other diplomats in Yangon
concur that intelligence operations are being
beefed up ahead of the planned referendum in May.
Nonetheless, despite his carefully planned
schemes, Than Shwe's position seems increasingly
perilous. Maung Aye in particular has distanced
himself from the top general and appears to be
conducting a sort of campaign of civil
disobedience. For instance, he recently ordered
the mayor of Yangon to take down billboards across
the town which urged people to "oppose those
pessimistic ax-handles who are relying on America"
because he preferred not to distinguish between
foreign enemies.
More significantly, it is
widely believed among diplomats and military
sources that Maung Aye did not support last year's
decision to shoot and kill Buddhist monks and
would have preferred the demonstrations to have
been suppressed through less-violent measures.
"Maung Aye constantly manages to harass both Than
Shwe and Thura Shwe Mann by blocking promotions or
disrupting decisions," said a government official
who requested anonymity.
At the same time,
Than Shwe's health is believed to be deteriorating
after he underwent a cardiac operation performed
by Singaporean doctors in the new capital city
last month, according to sources who have recently
visited the military leader. It's unclear how well
the junta leader has convalesced from the
procedure and there are unconfirmed reports that
he may require follow-up cardiac surgery in
Singapore in the coming weeks.
"He
periodically forgets things. He recently asked
where several officers were, all of whom were
sacked last year during the mass retirements of
middle ranking officers," according to a
government source in Naypyidaw. Than Shwe is known
to suffer from chronic diabetes and regular bouts
of hypertension and is believed to have suffered a
mild stroke in December 2006 for which he flew to
Singapore for treatment.
"For almost a
decade now Than Shwe has refused to have his
annual medical check-up done by [Myanmar] army
doctors for fear that this would leave him
vulnerable and in danger of being ousted, as it
did to General Saw Maung [more than 15 years
ago]," a former military doctor told Asia Times
Online on the condition of anonymity.
For
the time being, however, Than Shwe is still in
control. But his grip on power appears to be
slipping significantly at a time when his
divide-and-rule tactics have sharpened antagonisms
between his two likely successors and the country
braces for some form of democratic reforms. A
change in junta leadership is not inconceivable in
the year ahead, a still undecided transition,
which depending on who emerges on top, may or may
not follow through on the current leader's
constitution referendum and democratic election
plans.
Larry Jagan previously
covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance
journalist based in Bangkok.
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