Page 2 of 2 Back to the future in
Thailand By Rodney Tasker
nothing, taciturn leader, and the
eight-year period he ruled could in no way be
described as full democracy.
But his soft
leadership style was generally accepted by Thais
as there were no major political hiccups and
pro-business policies helped lay the foundations
for Thailand's prolonged era of economic
prosperity that followed. Thailand boasted the
fastest-growing economy in the world spanning the
15 years from 1980 to
1995,
half of that period under Prem.
To be
sure, there were two short-lived abortive military
coups during his tenure, including a bizarre
assassination attempt against Queen Sirikit. But
it was over this period of occasional military
division that Prem won the utmost confidence of
King Bhumibol, which has lasted to this day. Prem,
who has never married, was affectionately dubbed
"Pa Prem" from that time. One Western ambassador,
who knew the way Prem conducted cabinet meetings,
commented at the time: "Prem may be criticized as
being too quiet, but he sure runs tight,
businesslike cabinet meetings."
Eminence grise Prem later
found himself serving as the king's chief adviser
via the Privy Council, cutting off his direct link
to the people. While a generally respected figure,
Prem was also seen by some elected politicians as
a taciturn eminence grise, watching and
evaluating various prime ministers from behind the
scenes. Taciturn, that is, until the advent of
Thaksin with his bombastic and corrupt
administration that over time was criticized by
many Thais for trying to bypass the king's
authority.
It was then that Prem decided
to play a more decisive role on the public stage -
particularly when Thaksin was seen to be trying to
wrap up control of the military through the
elevation of his pre-cadet Class 10 mates to
crucial military posts, including those that
oversaw Bangkok's security. Prem was and is seen
as a patrician figure overseeing the military on
the king's behalf, and the institution itself was
viewed as the one arm of central power that
Thaksin had been unable to subdue - as was clearly
demonstrated by the September 19 coup that
dislodged him.
Thaksin seemed to view this
as a threat posed by Prem - and by extension the
palace - to his apparent program to acquire almost
total power. His famous quip in mid-2006
expressing irritation over a "charismatic figure
beyond the constitution" was widely seen as a
remark directed against Prem. And Prem, who
symbolically started to wear his old military
garb, was indeed at the time making
uncharacteristically public and oblique references
to Thaksin's perceived irresponsible use of power.
Now, Prem is widely regarded by both
domestic and foreign political observers as
playing a central role in Thailand's political
destiny. As King Bhumibol fades more from public
view - particularly since a serious spine
operation last year - so Prem seems charged with
shoring up the Thai establishment to weather any
eventualities in the country's volatile political
landscape, which obviously includes Bhumibol's
eventual passing from the scene.
Anti-coup
activists continue to deride Prem as an obstacle
to Thailand progressing to true democracy, while
more conservative groups, including Bangkok's
traditional elites, view his presence as necessary
to prevent the country from sliding back into a
Thaksin-style, more selfish, materialistic style
of government.
Some political observers
looking to a more democratic Thai future hope any
attempt to hold the center, particularly if the
palace's influence in the future wanes, should not
allow a non-elected prime minister to come to
power after the next general election, as certain
military figures involved in drawing up a new
constitution have appeared publicly to support.
That, it is feared, could allow a military figure
such as coup leader General Sonthi to retain
civilian authority even after this year's
democratic elections.
Sonthi has not
helped to dispel such a notion by appearing to
prevaricate on the issue. When asked at a recent
news conference whether he aspired to become prime
minister after the next election, the general only
said: "That's too high a position." More vaguely,
he added: "I'm a Thai patriot and I'll do anything
that will strengthen our country."
Some
media commentators have drawn attention to the
fact that it was 1991 coup leader General Suchinda
Kraprayoon's attempt to extend his power tenure by
becoming a non-elected prime minister the
following year that led to the pro-democracy
protests in Bangkok that the military cracked down
on and King Bhumibol finally intervened in.
At the same time, those now assessing the
country's political future in purely political
party and ideological terms seem to miss the
bigger point. The monarchy under King Bhumibol has
been the pillar of Thailand's relative stability
and cohesiveness in Southeast Asia's often stormy
passage over the past five decades. And figures
like Prem aim to insure against any precipitative
change in the revered institution's status during
the eventual handover from father to son.
Rodney Tasker was a longtime
correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review,
where he covered the ins and outs of the Thai
military throughout the 1980s and 1990s and
famously predicted the 1991 coup. He is
semi-retired in the northern Thai city of Chiang
Mai.
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