Page 1 of
2 Back to the future in
Thailand By Rodney Tasker
CHIANG MAI, Thailand - Many commentators
on Thailand's confusing political scene now dwell
on post-election scenarios under a new
constitution later this year. Will there be a
non-elected prime minister, allowing the military
to retain political control? Will the opposition
Democrat Party make a return to power now that
ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is out of
sight? Or will Thaksin, on a groundswell of
grassroots support, somehow regain the helm?
Such analyses miss the main political
point, however, which
increasingly involves a small
handful of non-professional politicians. That
means His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Chief
Privy Councilor Prem Tinsulanond, current interim
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, military-junta
chief General Sonthi Boonyaratklin, and royal heir
apparent Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.
In other words, all serious talk about
Thailand's future direction should now center
squarely on the monarchy. Indeed, there are
indications that the beloved 79-year-old King
Bhumibol may be ailing after spinal surgery last
year. Her Majesty Queen Sirikit now carries out
many of the royal day-to-day duties, including
making visits to the three mainly Muslim
southernmost provinces where a bloody insurgency
is still raging despite a softer line from Bangkok
since last September's coup.
Naturally,
Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn is not yet as highly
revered by Thais as his father, who has been on
the throne for more than 60 years, making him the
world's longest-serving monarch. Compared with his
popular outgoing younger sister Princess
Sirindhorn, the crown prince is often regarded as
remote. Over the past few years there have been
subtle efforts, apparently led by the queen, to
burnish his image.
But he will assuredly
ascend to the throne, and therefore is working to
secure the Thai population's confidence and
adulation. That's perhaps why he is more in the
public eye these days, performing his duties
diligently at royal ceremonies and other public
functions. For instance, he was front and center
in media coverage of the palace's contribution to
flood victims late last year.
Some
observers have noticed that during at least one
recent public appearance, the royal yellow flag
that normally carries the king's initials instead
was marked with Vajiralongkorn's. To complete the
picture, there was another, smaller orange flag
with the initials of his consort, Princess
Srirasmi. She was a commoner, Srirasmi Mahidol na
Ayuthaya, before being elevated to the rank of
princess in 2006 - the year after she delivered
the crown prince a baby boy, Prince Dipangkorn
Rasmijoti.
Draped in yellow At
the same time, at every turn throughout the
country's towns, villages and Buddhist temples
there are new pictures of the king, often with an
adoring message printed next to then. The monarch
will turn 80 on December 5, an occasion that will
be marked by an unprecedented nationwide
celebration.
In the immediate background
is King Bhumibol's chief aide Prem. As the man
most trusted by the monarch in his capacity as
Privy Council president, Prem is viewed as having
a direct hotline to the monarch. As long as King
Bhumibol remains on the throne, Prem will remain a
crucial political factor - though the thought
vexes those seeking a quick return to Thailand's
democratic path, once a new general election is
called at the end of the year, as promised by the
military coup makers.
Recently, such
sentiments took a hard turn when certain anti-coup
groups demonstrated outside Prem's Bangkok
residence, accusing him of being the "mastermind"
behind the September coup. Prem later brushed the
incident off when he was reported as telling the
press: "I don't think I was attacked - there are
people saying things, however."
Enter
former foreign minister and intelligence chief and
staunch palace loyalist Prasong Soonsiri on to the
scene. Now head of the constitution-drafting
committee, US Central Intelligence Agency-trained
Prasong told Asia Times Online exclusively in
December that he was among a small group of
serving and retired military officers who
originally began plotting the coup last July.
Prem, he said, was not among that group, though he
doubtless was aware of the plot.
Whatever
beneficial role ex-army commander and former
appointed prime minister Prem may have in trying
to instill a semblance of order to the country's
hurly-burly political landscape, he is no friend
of the idealists who are seeking the establishment
of a full democratic system - something that has
evaded Thailand despite sometimes lengthy
interludes of elected civilian rule punctuated by
periods of military control.
Military
authorities say they suspect the recent bout of
anti-coup demonstrations in Bangkok - including a
massing near Prem's personal residence this month
- was funded by leaders of Thai Rak Thai,
Thaksin's old political party. Top coup maker
General Sonthi this week urged Prime Minister
Surayud to impose emergency law in Bangkok to
guard against rallies planned by Thaksin's
supporters from spinning out of control.
Prem enjoyed a relatively peaceful spell
as unelected prime minister from the time he
stepped into the breach as army commander in 1980
to his forced dissolution of Parliament in the
face of a looming personal parliamentary
no-confidence debate in 1988. Prem was frequently
viewed by critics at the time as a do-
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