Page 2 of 2 Thai coup makers losing their
grip By Rodney Tasker
strongly
supported the coup. Nor has any progress been made
in proving Thaksin tampered with the workings of
independent checking-and-balancing agencies, as
the coup makers have alleged.
Miscues
and flip flops Instead, Thais have become
inured to a string of mismanaged policy
flip-flops. These range from dithering over
whether to reopen Bangkok's old Don Muang airport
as cracks appeared on the new
Suvannabhumi Airport's
tarmac, to upsetting foreign investors by first
introducing capital controls, then curtailing them
for certain types of transactions and by sending
inconsistent signals about amending the Foreign
Business Act. Now it appears only a handful of
budget domestic carriers will return to Don Muang,
and foreign investors are now completely in the
dark about what the government's economic
priorities are with Pridiyathorn's resignation.
The new government was also expected to
curb violence in the mainly-Muslim deep south,
where Thaksin was widely seen to have mishandled
the situation with a simplistic and at times
brutal iron-fist policy, which whipped up
resentment among the minority Muslim community.
But if anything, the southern violence has got
worse under Surayud's interim administration,
including a coordinated 30-bomb attack between
February18-19 and sustained near-daily killings.
On top of this, the generals have still to find
the culprits in the New Year's Eve bombing
campaign in Bangkok, when three were killed as
nine low-grade bombs were set off in different
parts of the city.
Perhaps the most
telling sign of the current government's political
ineptitude surrounded the recent saga of Somkid
Jaturipitak, Thaksin's former economic czar and
architect of the ex-premier's so-called
"Thaksinomics" economic strategy, a mix of
free-market and state-interventionist policies.
Somkid recently offered his services to Surayud,
who made him roving envoy to explain to
international audiences Thailand's new bid to
implement King Bhumibol's "sufficiency economy"
concept, which favors sustainable economic
development strategies over the pursuit of maximum
short-term profits.
Somkid immediately
came under great pressure from anti-Thaksin groups
to resign - which he did on February 21 after
barely one week in office. Somkid, a former
academic who has never been known to have his own
political base, used his farewell news conference
to paint himself as a national martyr. "The
country cannot face any more division," he said,
making it clear his resignation was for political
reasons.
Somkid's appointment by the
Surayud government was arguably its biggest
political blunder to date. While government
supporters could perhaps overlook earlier
mistakes, the Somkid affair was the last straw.
Most of the opposition to Somkid's appointment
centered on the People's Alliance for Democracy,
or PAD, the mass anti-Thaksin movement that
hounded the ex-premier for most of 2006, and
effectively helped to spawn the September 19 coup
that ousted him.
The movement's leaders,
and some academics who until now had been largely
supportive of Surayud's stated strong commitment
to political reform, saw through Somkid's
appointment as a total political expedient to
counter Thaksin's ongoing attempts to present
himself internationally as a champion of democracy
and an illegally ousted leader who had only the
Thai people's economic welfare at heart. A
turncoat Somkid would put paid to that campaign,
so the theory apparently ran. Some political
analysts even thought Surayud and the military
chiefs might be grooming Somkid to be a military
friendly leader in a future democratically elected
administration.
Two days before Somkid's
departure, the PAD had bluntly told the Surayud
government that Somkid's appointment was
inappropriate, further divided Thai society and
risked yet more confusion overseas. The protest
group had threatened to withdraw its considerable
support from Surayud, and by extension Sonthi and
the generals.
In effect, the government is
now seen even among its strongest supporters as
fumbling politically and in real danger of further
crimping its already falling popularity. Five
months since seizing power, Surayud's government
is treading water rather than tackling head-on the
evils it identified as justification for the coup.
A public opinion poll conducted mainly among
Bangkok-based residents showed Surayud's
popularity after his early October appointment at
70%. The tally in early February indicated his
approval ratings had plunged to around 40%.
The government desperately needs to
demonstrate it is capable and committed to moving
faster to prove the initial reasons it pronounced
for justifying the coup are indeed valid.
Lingering support for Thaksin could perhaps be
brought around if the government showed clearly
with corroborating evidence the extent of the
corruption in the ex-premier's government.
Because of its constitutional duty to
uphold and protect the monarchy, many Thais are
not as inherently opposed to military or even
authoritarian-style civilian rule, as are various
other regional countries. Clearly the current
leadership needs a firmer, steadier hand on the
helm to show the Thai masses that even in an
interim capacity it represents a credible and
attractive alternative to Thaksin's populism.
Yet time is running short before general
elections are held in or around October, when
unless credible charges have been presented and
proven, the still popular
businessman-cum-politician might - much to the
coup makers chagrin - still be a political factor.
Rodney Tasker was a longtime
correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review,
where he covered the ins and outs of the Thai
military throughout the 1980s and 1990s and
famously predicted the 1991 coup. He is
semi-retired in the northern Thai city of Chiang
Mai.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about
sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
