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2 The generals fall out in
Myanmar By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's top generals are in
the throes of a full-blown power struggle as they
grapple with how best to introduce significant
political reforms, including a planned move toward
some form of democracy, and hand political power
to a new generation of military commanders.
Senior General Than Shwe, head of the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
is of failing health and in recent months has
become increasing reclusive amid growing
international pressure for
political change - including the United States'
recent failed attempt to impose sanctions against
the regime through the United Nations Security
Council.
Against that backdrop, the SPDC's
top three generals - Than Shwe, Maung Aye and
Thura Shwe Mann - reportedly cannot agree on how
to move forward, according to Western diplomats
who spoke with Asia Times Online.
"It's a
stalemate," said a Western diplomat based in the
former capital Yangon. "The three generals don't
trust each other and are closely watching each
other. It's like a giant chess game, and as a
result nothing is happening."
Big changes
were in the cards. Top military rulers recently
met in the new capital Naypyidaw - some 400
kilometers north of Yangon - for their quarterly
meeting, where Than Shwe's plans to prepare the
government and military for constitutional reform
were discussed. The top general significantly was
not present for the meeting, and the SPDC's second
in command, Maung Aye, reportedly refused to
accept some of the proposed changes, according to
people familiar with the meeting.
Myanmar's National Convention, which is
drawing up a new constitution, finished its latest
session in December and Western diplomats in
Yangon believe that in the next few months the
charter will be formally drafted and by year's end
put to a national referendum. In anticipation of
those reforms, a massive shakeup of the army and
government is planned for the coming months to
pave the way for constitutionally mandated
civilian rule.
The changes, if fully
implemented, will be the most dramatic since the
military seized power more than 18 years ago and
have been designed to ensure that the draft
constitution is democratically approved during a
national referendum. Significantly, they will also
pave the way for general democratic elections,
which are expected to be held some time in 2008.
The ruling junta annulled the results of
the 1990 general election, which was won
overwhelming by the National League for Democracy,
and it remains unclear whether the opposition
party will be permitted to compete in next year's
planned polls.
As part of the reform plan,
Than Shwe is reportedly planning to give up his
command of the army, but retain the key post of
chairman of the SPDC. However, Maung Aye, perhaps
sensing Than Shwe's declining health and tenuous
grip on power, is now refusing to retire along
with the senior general - as was earlier planned.
His refusal promises to complicate the political
transition and heighten intra-military rivalries
in the months ahead.
Maung Aye "fears he
will be completely sidelined if he accepts
retirement", said a relative of the general. "He
still wants to be No 1."
Than Shwe's
protege, General Thura Shwe Man, was tipped to
take command of the armed forces, while Than Shwe
and Maung Aye retained their top posts of chairman
and deputy of the junta's ruling council, which is
expected to change its name to the State Democracy
and Development Council (SDDC) to mark the start
of a new political era.
Once established,
the SDDC will be charged with overseeing both the
military command and the civilian government,
which unlike the current administration will have
split authority structures. Over the past two
years, Than Shwe has frequently told Thailand's
top army commanders that he planned to retire soon
and that Thura Shwe Mann would take over his
position as the country's top military leader.
Prime Minister Soe Win, meanwhile, has already
shed his army khakis for a civilian business suit
and his ex-military cabinet ministers have
officially left the armed forces.
Last
legs Now Than Shwe's deteriorating health
promises to alter, or potentially even scupper,
those grand plans as new competitive
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