Rice wants beef from security forum
By Barry Desker
Last year's meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Vientiane was notable
for being snubbed by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Having taken
considerable flak for the no-show, Rice made sure to attend this year's meeting
in Kuala Lumpur, even though, with the Middle East burning, she probably had a
good excuse for skipping it.
If Rice is to be convinced that the annual forums amount to something more than
a mere talking shop, ARF needs to be seen as a useful opportunity for the
United States to network with a
range of countries with significant Asia-Pacific interests resulting in
substantive outcomes. For example, Rice will likely shake hands with North
Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun, even if they don't agree on resuming the
six-party talks.
The ARF was conceived in 1994 as a process, not an institution. It focused on
building mutual trust and confidence and sought to develop norms through
confidence building measures. The objective was to create a more predictable
and stable pattern of relationships between the major powers and Southeast
Asian nations.
It is often forgotten that the ARF is the only meeting ground that brings
together the states of Southeast Asia as well as major extra-regional powers
such as Russia and the US to discuss sensitive regional issues, such as how to
push the junta in Myanmar toward greater democracy. To be sure, it has not
resolved disputes or prevented the outbreak of conflicts, but it could be used
to minimize the impact of differing perceptions and interests.
However, unless a new role is found for the ARF, it will be sidelined in the
years ahead. As a meeting of leaders at the foreign-ministry level, ARF does
not command the kind of prestige of some other groupings, such as the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, which draws presidents and
prime ministers from both sides of the Pacific, or the venerable ASEAN
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) itself and its several offshoots.
As new regional institutions proliferate - last year saw the first meeting of
the East Asia Summit - the ARF must demonstrate its relevance and not be seen,
because of its focus on "confidence building" not action, as just a talking
shop. The publication of the Annual Security Outlook of its members, which
promotes transparency and builds mutual confidence, is one small step in the
right direction.
Three practical steps toward a bigger role
To this end, one initiative that could be considered is development of concrete
cooperation in areas such as transnational crime, counter-terrorism,
multi-modal transportation security, maritime security, people-smuggling,
drug-smuggling, disaster relief, and threats arising from the spread of
pandemic diseases such as AIDS, bird flu, and severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS). These non-traditional security challenges form a new security agenda
for the next decade.
The ARF has already made a start by conducting desktop exercises in handling
and managing the consequences of a hypothetical terrorist attack in densely
populated areas. The forum should conduct similar desktop exercises and
scenario-based planning exercises in maritime security, disaster management,
pandemics, and peacekeeping operations. Meetings of experts should be held to
learn from the best practices in this area. Promoting practical cooperation on
non-traditional security challenges would result in substantive outcomes and
remove the perception that the ARF is just a talking shop.
A second initiative could be organizational in character. The numerous ASEAN
and sub-ASEAN meetings are linked together in ways that put a strain on many
members. The region could consider delinking the chairmanship of the ARF from
that of ASEAN, for example. If Indonesia chairs the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting
and the Post-Ministerial Conference that follows shortly after, then Thailand
could host the ARF. Any member that is not up to hosting the forum could forgo
the opportunity.
Another reform would permit non-ASEAN members, such as Japan, to co-chair ARF
meetings. This would lock in the participation of the outside powers as well as
give them a greater stake in the process. The objective would be to build a
commitment to the ARF as well as a better understanding of the the group's
evolving character. This would be especially useful among Western powers whose
leadership may change after domestic elections.
The ARF should also move toward the establishment of a secretariat. A first
step has been taken with a unit within the ASEAN Secretariat to assist the
chairman. The ARF Unit should, among other duties, update the Register of
Confidence Building Measures and serve as a document repository. However, as
the ARF embarks on concrete cooperation on a range of issues impacting the
entire Asia-Pacific region, it is essential that an autonomous secretariat
staffed by officials from its member states handle these issues.
If a more synergistic relationship could be developed between APEC and the ARF,
it might be possible to hold back-to-back summits. As APEC meets in an ASEAN
country every three years, periodic ARF summits would be possible. Although
APEC was conceived as an economic forum, the annual Leaders' Meetings
increasingly discuss security and political issues, even if the fig leaf of
holding the meeting in a separate room or issuing a separate communique has
been adopted.
This is how APEC has debated such issues as East Timor (1999) and terrorism
(since 2001), has appointed directors responsible for counter-terrorism and
infectious diseases, and is embarking on discussions of political and security
issues (which it claims are trade-related) such as supply-chain security,
maritime security, energy, and the environment.
China also took the initiative to organize a meeting of APEC foreign ministers
in Santiago in 2004, indicating a more active role by foreign ministries in the
APEC process. From the Chinese perspective, back-to-back APEC/ARF summits would
mean that Taiwan's peripheral role in Asia-Pacific security institutions would
be highlighted. While Taiwan attends APEC meetings as "Chinese Taipei", it is
excluded from major regional security dialogues.
From the wider perspective, periodic ARF summits would ensure that issues
affecting the region would be addressed by global powers. The ARF would thus
remain relevant instead of being consigned to obsolescence.
Barry Desker (ISBDesker@ntu.edu.sg)
is director of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang
Technological University.
