BANGKOK - Effigy-makers have been busy
lately. In the space of a week, massive protests
over free-trade agreements (FTAs), school
decentralization and Beer Chang have drawn tens of
thousands of Thai malcontents eager to see dummies
of decision-makers go up in smoke.
But
though the political tide has begun turning
against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of late,
analysts say the protests still appear too
disjointed to offer a major threat to his
government. "I don't think the protests are joined
together in any tight fashion," said Prudhisan
Jumbala, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn
University. "They simply
reflect Thaksin's downturn and the opposition's
desire to revive itself. It's all a very natural
process."
In some respects, the protests
may just be a result of the calendar. Opposition
toward the Thai-US FTA, a school-decentralization
plan and Thai Beverage Plc's efforts to list on
the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) have all
gathered steam in the past few years.
Though they are not linked together
explicitly, all of the protests share certain
characteristics. For instance, they all take
legitimate concerns - access to HIV/AIDS drugs,
government corruption and alcohol consumption -
and confuse them with extraneous matters.
FTA Watch, a group that stormed the Chiang
Mai hotel where US and Thai trade negotiators met
last week, often warns the government about the
implications that accepting US provisions on data
protection could have for the future production of
generic HIV/AIDS-fighting anti-retroviral drugs.
But the group also ties the trade pact to
issues that have nothing to do with the pending
bilateral deal, such as the privatization of
state-owned energy giant EGAT Plc and the rise in
global oil prices.
Similarly, some 80,000
teachers who are meeting in the northeast town of
Roi Et this week are upset at a plan to transfer
control of government schools to local
administrative organizations. But some of the
teachers, including Somyong Kaewsupan, also filed
a lese-majeste charge against Thaksin for
comments he made during a speech to taxi drivers
on December 25 (Thai laws against publicly
disparaging the monarch are very strict).
Meanwhile, those fighting to keep Thai
Beverage, brewer of the popular Beer Chang, off
the SET have no problem if the company raises
money on the Singapore exchange - even though that
money can easily be used to expand its operations
in Thailand. The teetotalers claim Thai Beverage
is the epitome of evil, even though protest leader
and former Bangkok governor Chamlong Srimuang
makes a point of not criticizing the government's
efforts to control alcohol consumption. (The Chang
logo adorns the shirts of English premiership
football club Everton.)
For their
questionable logic, some analysts think the Beer
Chang protesters are in a league of their own.
"It's a separate protest," Prudhisan said. "It's
not anti-Thaksin, and it's not
anti-things-the-government-is-doing. It's simply
against Beer Chang. It's an interest group that's
trying to give off the impression that it's a
social movement."
Chamlong, a former
major-general and a devout Buddhist, and a few
hundred hardcore supporters camped outside the
Securities and Exchange Commission headquarters
this week in an attempt to pressure the regulator
to make a final decision on whether alcohol
companies can list on the SET. But while the
anti-listing campaigners can boast thousands of
protesters, the wider public appears to be losing
interest in the debate.
Likewise, the FTA
protesters may have a difficult time sustaining
their momentum from last week without focusing
their efforts. The two rounds of talks held in
Thailand have provided many opportunities for
groups to make a spectacle and present their
complaints, but the other four rounds held outside
the country have flown completely under the radar
screen.
After the fifth round of talks in
Hawaii, neither the negotiators nor the protesters
made any noise. In fact, the Thai negotiating team
took a week to devise very staid answers to
written questions about the progress of the talks.
"These days we see demonstrators at every
major economic conference, including the World
Trade Organization talks and the meetings of the
G-8 [Group of Eight]," said Prapat Thepchatri, a
political scientist at Thammasat University. "I
think the movement will fade away because next
time the meeting will be in the US and nobody will
care."
That leaves the strident group of
anti-government supporters led by outspoken
talk-show host Sondhi Limthongkul. Thousands of
people still attend his weekly broadcast in
Bangkok's Lumpini Park, and last Friday Sondhi led
about 3,000 demonstrators to Government House to
call for Thaksin's resignation.
"The
incident showed Sondhi needed to up the ante and
demonstrate he has muscles to flex," Phatra
Securities said in a report this week. Since
Sondhi's anti-government tirades were generating
smaller and smaller crowds after a reaching a peak
in November, "this helps renew interest in his
movement and is also a practice run for the 'big
day' [January 27] when crowds will be led to hand
a petition to [His Majesty] the King requesting
the formation of an interim government to amend
the constitution and undertake political reforms",
the report said.
Unlike the other protest
movements, Sondhi acts more as a lodestone for
public discontent. Indeed, he addressed thousands
of teachers in Roi Et this week, railed against
the FTA last Friday and initially built up his
following by denouncing the partial privatization
of EGAT.
But whether Sondhi can translate
his exposes on corruption into an overthrow of a
popularly elected government remains to be seen.
Analysts cautioned that any provocative events,
such as the march to Government House last Friday,
might lead to unnecessary violence if the protests
spin out of control.
"When you get a lot
of people together, there's a chance that violence
will break out," said Chulalongkorn's Prudhisan.
"That's not a risk you take lightly. If you are
going to get on the tiger's back, you need to work
out ways to get off it before you get on it,
otherwise it's a very risky move."
