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SPEAKING FREELY
A early guide to
Indonesia's next president
By Stanley
A Weiss
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have their
say. Please click here if you
are interested in contributing.
BALI -
For the first time, the voters of Indonesia, with the
world's largest Muslim population, will choose their own
president. But in the mystical world of Indonesia, even
next year's direct election is not as simple as it
seems.
Under the new election law, only parties
that receive more than 5 percent of the vote in April's
parliamentary election can field a presidential
candidate in the general election several months later.
To win the presidency, a candidate must receive a
majority of the national vote and more than 20 percent
of the vote in at least half of Indonesia's 30 provinces
- in effect ruling out all but the two major parties.
How to make sense of it all? And what will the
outcome mean for the future of this
democracy-in-progress?
Here are five signs to
watch for.
A mother and child reunion?
The country's largest party, the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle, hopes President Megawati Sukarnoputri
can hold on to power. But accused of betraying the cause
of reform in favor of business and military interests,
Ibu Mega ("Mother Mega") has lost the love of her
student and activist supporters.
The election is
still Megawati's to lose. Watch for whether she
continues to side with the entrenched elite or wins back
her disenchanted supporters by returning to her
reformasi roots.
A 'go straight to
jail' card for Tanjung?
It was once a foregone
conclusion that Golkar, Indonesia's second-largest party
and the political vehicle of the former Suharto
dictatorship, would nominate its powerful boss, Akbar
Tanjung. But convicted of corruption, he now awaits his
appeal to the Supreme Court.
A legal victory for
Tanjung would clear the path to his party's nomination.
But electoral victory is unlikely to follow; the public
is fed up with corruption, of which Tanjung is now the
poster child.
A new face for Golkar?
A
Supreme Court ruling against Tanjung would send him
straight to jail and force Golkar to find a new standard
bearer. Among the 19 contenders are three to watch.
General Wiranto, the last armed forces chief
under Suharto, hopes Indonesians will overlook past
human rights abuses. Now a crooner of love songs, "the
singing general" serenades voters as the law-and-order
strongman who would save the nation.
Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare Yusuf
Kalla is widely admired for ending Muslim-Christian
warfare in the Malukus, but he is not a native of Java,
home to two-thirds of Indonesian voters.
In
contrast, the governor of the ancient city of
Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X, is revered on the
island as the last of the Java kings, but has little
appeal in the provinces. Polls show a geographically
balanced Sultan-Kalla ticket crushing Megawati.
An Islamic kingmaker?
Neither Megawati
nor Golkar is expected to win an outright majority in
the first round of voting. Barring an unlikely
Megawati-Golkar alliance that would lock up the
election, the race would be on to forge a winning
coalition in the run-off. Three smaller Islamic-oriented
parties may emerge as potential kingmakers.
Former (impeached) president Abdurrahman Wahid
remains the leader of the National Awakening Party and
retains the support of the 40-million-member Nahdlatul
Ulama (NU), the country's largest Muslim socio-political
organization.
Amien Rais, chairman of the
People's Consultative Assembly and leader of the
National Mandate Party, has the support of the second
largest Muslim organization, the 30 million-member
Muhammadiyah. Watch for whether NU and Muhammadiyah can
overcome old rivalries and unite behind a single Islamic
candidate.
Hamzah Haz, the current vice
president and leader of the largest Muslim political
party, the United Development Party, says he would not
spurn offers of an Islamic coalition.
Wild
cards?
After two major terrorist attacks in as
many years, unscrupulous politicians such as Rais and
Haz who have flirted with Islamic radicals are finished
in moderate Indonesia. Indeed, the two major parties may
yet find their winning ticket in some unusual places.
If Megawati dumps Haz, watch retired army
general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, now coordinating
minister for political and security affairs, popular for
overseeing the military crackdown on the rebellious Aceh
province. His selection as vice president would be a
signal that Megawati intends to continue deferring to
the military establishment.
Golkar may find its
salvation in Nurcholish Madjid, the moderate Muslim
scholar beloved by Indonesians. Although he declined to
seek the Golkar presidential nomination, he would make a
popular running mate and useful cover should a Golkar
administration and its military allies intensify the
crackdown on Islamic militants.
Will Mother Mega
keep her children in line? Will Tanjung stay out of
jail? Will the Sultan and Kalla be the unbeatable duo?
Will the Islamic parties anoint the winner? Will wild
cards shake up the system?
One outcome is
certain. Five years removed from the dictatorship that
ruled this nation for three decades, the competition
itself is a healthy sign that Indonesia is taking
another step toward being the world's third-largest
democracy.
And that is something to watch - and
cheer.
Stanley A Weiss is founder and
chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a
non-partisan organization based in Washington. This is a
personal comment.
Speaking Freely is
an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers
to have their say. Please click here if you
are interested in contributing.
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