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Thai-Myanmar: Twists in the
roadmap
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Thailand is pushing ahead with its
initiative to bring democratic change to Myanmar by
pursuing discussions on a roadmap to national
reconciliation and democracy, but where this political
journey leads to remains unclear.
Last week,
Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai discussed
his ideas for this roadmap with his Myanmar counterpart
Win Aung in Bangkok. Win Aung said he would take the
Thai ideas back to Yangon for further discussion.
Since Thai officials met with Myanmar Deputy
Prime Minister Khin Maung Win, who visited Bangkok as a
special envoy for General Than Shwe recently, Surakiart
has been canvassing vigorously for support from
countries in Asia and Europe that have expressed
interest in helping Myanmar implement democratic reform.
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has said
that Thailand was taking the initiative because the
crisis in Myanmar was more than Yangon could handle, and
that it would be easier for it to deal with friendly
neighbors than for the matter to be brought before the
United Nations Security Council.
"We are doing
what we are doing now because we are concerned about
Burma. We are not pressuring Burma or interfering with
its internal affairs," he said. "Since we are Burma's
close neighbor, we should initiate something that leads
to the international community's acceptance of
developments in Burma." (The ruling junta changed the
country's name from Burma to Myanmar in 1989, but many
observers prefer the old designation.)
Under its
vision for this roadmap, Thailand wants the Myanmar
regime to propose a series of concrete and practical
steps toward democratization. As part of this process,
the Thai government would then host a meeting of
interested parties that would be tasked with fleshing
out the Myanmar roadmap.
But where this will
lead - if it leads anywhere - remains unclear.
To date, the Thai idea of this roadmap, floated
in the wake of the detention of opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi, seems rather vague. "It's really only a
concept that still needs to be fleshed out," said a
senior Thai Foreign Ministry source.
"It's a
working idea that has to be refined before it gets
seriously unveiled," added a senior Thai diplomat.
European leaders who discussed with Surakiart at
various bilateral meetings during the Asia-Europe
Meeting in Bali last month all seemed to have been given
varying versions of it. "It's not really a roadmap as
such," a senior European official at the Bali meeting
said in an interview, "but 10 or 12 proposed steps which
would help the Burmese military government to move
towards full democracy within the next few years."
For all of the talk about the Thai roadmap,
however, many foreign governments and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a
member, believe that the first step on any roadmap must
be the release of Suu Kyi.
For more than two
months, she has been held under what the government
calls protective custody after a violent attack on her
and her supporters in northern Myanmar. That attack has
been blamed on pro-Yangon elements.
"ASEAN and
the Thai government have called for Aung San Suu Kyi's
immediate release, and we would like to see steps taken
that would move towards her release," Surakiart said in
Bali last month. "The recent release of more than 91
political prisoners is a good signal and if these steps
can be spelt out as part of the roadmap as to how and
when she would be released that would be very
helpful."
But UN special envoy Razali Ismail, who
helped broker the original talks between Suu Kyi and the
generals, has also been very clear: there can be no
dialogue process when one of the key partners is under
detention.
Privately, ASEAN leaders have made it
clear to Yangon that they expected Suu Kyi to have
already been released by now.
Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad has warned the generals that
if nothing happens soon, ASEAN will have to consider
expelling Myanmar - although this would only be done as
a last resort.
At the ASEAN meeting of foreign
ministers in Phnom Penh in mid-June, Myanmar was asked
to give them a firm date for Suu Kyi's release. This was
reiterated by Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan
Wirajuda last month during Win Aung's visit to Jakarta.
Myanmar continues to ask its Asian allies to be
patient. "We need some breathing space," Win Aung told
his Indonesian hosts.
But international pressure
may be having an impact on Myanmar's generals. Last
week, the military authorities allowed the International
Red Cross in Yangon to visit Suu Kyi in the guesthouse
in which she is being detained.
Thai officials
say they see the roadmap as having a course of steps -
after the release of Aung San Suu Kyi - which would lead
to Myanmar becoming a fully fledged democracy before
2006, when Yangon takes over the chairmanship of ASEAN.
The other steps would include Thailand hosting
an international forum, which in the words of the Thai
foreign minister would "brainstorm" with representatives
of the Myanmar military government on economic
liberalization, increasing political freedom, drawing up
a constitution and then holding elections within the
next two years or so.
In truth, there is very
little new in this framework that Razali has not already
been discussing in detail with the three main players in
Myanmar - the military, the democratic opposition and
the ethnic minorities. But what is new is the Thai
proposal to host an international forum on Myanmar.
"This would be a senior officials meeting rather than a
ministerial one," said the Thai Foreign Ministry
spokesman, Sihasak Phuangketkeow.
Originally, it
was to be to include representatives of ASEAN, China,
Japan and Europe. The United States did not seem to be
on the original invitation list.
But in the
course of the past week or so, ministry officials have
realized that the guest list has become too long and the
thinking now appears to be an initial meeting that would
include Thailand, China and India with representatives
of the Myanmar military junta.
Thaksin has said
that neighboring countries need to agree first on
political change in Myanmar. "As Burma's neighbors have
the greatest interest in seeing the country become
democratic and thereby ensure regional stability and
security," added a senior Thai diplomat, "it would make
sense for them to be the main participants in the
roadmap forum."
(Inter Press
Service)
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