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Election 2004: Indonesia's next big
chance
By Tony Sitathan
SINGAPORE - After last October's bombing in
Bali, Indonesia's foreign investment was hit hard,
sliding to a record low. According to the Investment
Coordinating Board (BKPM), foreign direct investment
(FDI) approvals plummeted by 35 percent to US$9.7
billion last year from $15.06 billion in 2001.
Many hope that the FDI slide will be reversed
when foreign investors realize that Indonesia is not a
political hotbed of contention, nor is its economy
inherently unstable like some in South America and
Central Africa. "When you compare the banana-driven
economies of South America or the political turbulence
in Central Africa, Indonesia still has tremendous
natural resources and is ... a member of the Non-Aligned
Movement and ASEAN that has both the support of the West
as well as its fellow Asian member countries," said
Agung Wahana, economics professor at the University of
Gajah Mada in Central Java.
He was also
confident that once the general elections are over in
2004, Indonesia will be better prepared to plan for its
future and rebuild its national economy that has so far
been plagued by rampant corruption. "You just take the
case of Bulog, the state logistics agency that is
responsible amongst many things for distributing cheap
rice to villagers. During the recent floods it was
discovered to the anger of many villagers that broken
rice of up to 65 percent was distributed. Such quality
of rice is not fit for human consumption but only for
poultry feed," he said. "There are no checks and
balances and the state coffers are plundered to provide
Bulog such subsidies so that government officials can
afford to line their own pockets without any concern for
the poor villagers," he added.
It's not a new
phenomenon, but it is hoped that such things will be
ruled out when the new government comes into power next
year. But Indonesians will have few real choices in the
election, as the incumbent parties, according to several
political analysts, are already firmly entrenched.
According to political analyst Peter Sayers, who
has been based in Jakarta for the past three years,
there seems to be a dearth of good candidates as well as
parties that are free from blemish. "There are the
incumbent parties like the Indonesian Democratic Party
Struggle [PDI-P], Golongon Karya [Golkar], United
Development Party, National Awakening Party, National
Mandate Party and several other parties that are on the
sidelines, like the People's Democratic Party, National
Labor Party, Crescent and Star Party and the Army
coalition. However, all of them offer something
altogether different from the rest. What they offer
seems to be keeping the status quo intact despite the
fact that it would be the first time in history that the
general public instead of the powerful Assembly would be
electing their president," he said.
For many the
2004 presidential elections will be a watershed election
that many hope will usher in a new period of national
economic growth, distasteful as it may seem but similar
to the economic growth as experienced under former
president Suharto. Indonesia achieved steady economic
growth of more than 6 percent for almost a decade and
during that time the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) saw
market capitalization of companies reach almost US$117
billion by 1997. "Compare that to now, where even
achieving a 2 percent growth for 2003 is uncertain while
JSE market capitalization has dropped by almost 70
percent," remarked Iwan Yoniton, a stockbroker from
Bahana Securities. "Indonesia needs a sense of unity and
a common goal to accomplish its mission. With so many
differing views prevailing among the various parties and
the constant infighting between party stalwarts, there
is a serious lack of national solidarity needed to drive
Indonesia forward."
Even now the unity between
the various parties and their factions has caused splits
among the various political parties. Two of the largest
parties, PDI-P and Golkar, are already facing intense
internal pressure to change.
Golkar is
experiencing a generational power struggle between the
older, more conservative elements of the party that
support Akbar Tanjung as its secretary general and the
younger elements that prefer to elect someone without
close affiliation with Suharto's regime. Akbar Tanjung
has been indicted for corruption, accused of diverting
funds intended for Bulog to Golkar during elections. He
has refuted the indictment and is seeking to quash it in
the Supreme Court of Appeals.
PDI-P on the other
hand is embroiled in an internal power strife between
various ministers who are seeking to discredit one
another. Kwik Kian Gee, State Minister for National
Development Planning, has openly declared his own party,
PDI-P, to be the most corrupt in the country. He said
that such high levels of corruption would cause the
party to disintegrate even before the 2004 elections.
Such grim charges were caused by what he felt
was the ineffectiveness of combating corrupt tycoons who
he said were nothing more than criminals who headed
"black conglomerates". He was also displeased with a
newly passed rule that allowed those who misused state
loans to settle out of court once they had reached a
payment deal with the government.
Kwik stirred
up a hornets' nest in Jakarta, where money politics runs
thick, when he decided to break with the party whip. He
got an immediate reaction from Laksamana Sukardi, the
state minister for state enterprises supervision, as
well as several other PDI-P stalwarts including Taufik
Kiemas, the husband of President Megawati Sukarnoputri;
Taufik promptly labeled Kwik a traitor as well as being
senile.
According to a source within the rank
and file of PDI-P there have been unconfirmed reports
that Megawati's party has managed to amass as much as
Rp72 trillion in funds collected by party sympathizers
as donations as well as by illicit means for its
electioneering war chest. According to Zulfikar Hussain,
a prominent lawyer in Jakarta, money politics is a
necessary element in elections to buy votes. "Normally
whichever party can give the most money to those in the
Assembly and their cohorts of supporters determines
success or failure. It has been going on since the days
of Suharto but only now, due to the growing importance
of regencies, legislators and assemblymen, the fee for
[party] support has magnified by leaps and bounds," he
said.
Money politics aside, it would be
interesting to see Megawati's reaction when she sees the
full and complete audit of personal assets and wealth of
all senior state officers, including ministers, before
the 2004 elections. It is to be hoped that she is
prepared for many from her party to be called up for an
explanation. Then there is the silent majority that is
still waiting to cast its vote. Will they elect the
still popular incumbent President Megawati and her party
for another four years? Or will they be looking for
someone more articulate and forceful in making
decisions, someone who can take charge and call a spade
a spade?
"By combining the leadership styles of
an industrious motivator like the Thai Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra or paternalistically forceful like
the former president of the Philippines Fidel Ramos or
being politically adept to domestic changes like the
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad or as
forward-looking as former Singapore prime minister Lee
Kuan Yew is what someone would call a 'rounded
personality' to take on the wings of government in
Indonesia. But again having such qualities in a single
person is rare," maintained Sayers. It would be easier
to find a team of ministers that has such qualities and
just one capable president to run a stable Indonesia
without any political hangovers. More important, the
next president has to create the right investment
climate for foreigners to participate in and promise
high returns on FDI besides promising peace and
stability.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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