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ANALYSIS
The terror front shifts
east
By Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - Just as the United States is preparing
a frontal attack against the Iraq, the bulwark of Middle
East instability, terrorists allegedly linked to
al-Qaeda have leapfrogged Washington and destabilized
the weakest ring of the Far East chain - Indonesia. This
weekend's bombing in Bali is a brutal blow to the
delicate balance in the country and could easily lead
the government to play into the hands of the terrorists.
The result could be the opening of a much trickier front
in East Asia than the one the West is trying to close in
West Asia.
While some Western media place the
blame for the Bali bombing squarely in the lap of
al-Qaeda, on Monday Indonesian fundamentalist groups
rejected the accusations and said the United States was
responsible (see The enemy within). This brazen
rebuttal feeds on the anti-Americanism that has grown in
the past years after the 1997 financial crisis, with
sizable anti-US demonstrations continuing even after
last year's September 11 terrorist attack on the United
States.
Many factors could make Indonesia the
next new geopolitical black hole and thus a safe haven
for terrorism. The country is torn by many separatist
wars, in Aceh for instance, where Muslim fundamentalists
justify their cause because of the brutality of the
military, while in a parallel way the military justifies
its brutality because of fundamentalism.
In
Indonesia's last national elections the four most
orthodox Muslim parties mustered some 10 percent of the
vote. Now, while the government appears ready to crack
down on terrorism, this 10 percent could become more
radicalized and its ranks could be swollen by hitherto
moderate Muslims. If the repression of radical Islam is
not conducted with surgical care, many Muslims could
feel wronged and thus could become even more supportive
of al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, some sectors of the military
might actually encourage a radicalization of Islamic
protest, which would ultimately mean more power to the
army and allow it directly or indirectly to wrest
control from the civilian government.
This has
arguably already happened in East Timor and is happening
in Aceh. If a harsher anti-terrorist mobilization were
to produce the same result over all of Indonesia, the
country could find itself headed toward a crackdown
similar to that of the 1960s against the communists.
The other side is also extremely dangerous. If
terrorists were to feel that the crackdown was not so
tough and many of their militants and leaders are able
to elude the authorities, their efforts would be
emboldened and they could secure some areas in the
archipelago as safe havens from which to conduct their
activities.
Things are complicated by the fact
that in Java, home of the majority of the Indonesian
population, renewed Muslim orthodoxy and anti-US
sentiments often appear as two sides of the same coin.
In fact many people blame the United States for the
national crisis after 1997 and thus tend to be
sympathetic with Osama bin Laden, who portrays himself
as an anti-American hero. These anti-US sentiments are
easily meshed with anti-Chinese sentiments, as
Indonesia's ethnic Chinese control most of the national
wealth.
Traditional anti-Chinese sentiments and
new anti-US sentiments could be whipped up to stir old
national sentiments that could be the hotbed for
radicalism and force a tougher crackdown, which then
could spin out of control.
Saturday's blast will
have surely scared off tourists, who provide a large
chunk of foreign currency, and will have put on guard
businessmen who only recently had regained some trust in
Indonesia's battered market. Indonesian oil production
could ultimately come under threat, increasing Asia's
dependency on the Middle East for oil.
Chinese
and US interests are intertwined in Jakarta. Beijing has
an Achilles heel in the welfare of the Indonesian ethnic
Chinese. Many of them fled to China during the
anti-communist crackdown of the 1960s, and those who
remained, although not Chinese nationals, have strong
bonds (including relatives) with China. Beijing doesn't
wish to see them lynched, as happened after the 1997
financial crisis, and doesn't wish to see Indonesian oil
wells endangered, as they are a convenient source of
energy.
Americans similarly do not want to see
the destabilization, and possibly the balkanization, of
Indonesia, which could trigger destabilizing waves all
over Asia and spill over into Malaysia and tiny
Singapore. Both the US and China have a strong interest
in calm in the region.
But as the civilian
government in Jakarta has proved less than forceful in
the past years, and the military too ambitious and
Islamic militants very active, all the elements are in
place for an explosion. The first stopgap measure must
come from the economy, which must increase the pace its
recover (for this year the country was expecting a 4
percent growth) to absorb more unemployed, who could
become the cannon fodder of terrorism. But the world
economy is faring badly, and few countries are in the
position to spare the kind of cash - tens of billions of
dollars - needed to prop up Indonesia; indeed, in the
next weeks many investors now in Indonesia will be
packing up to leave.
In this situation Indonesia
could easily become a much bigger headache than Iraq, as
Indonesia is a much larger country sitting in a much
more sensitive part of the world. It is impossible to
think that this predicament in Indonesia will not affect
US war preparation in Iraq, although it is now difficult
to reckon what the exact impact will be. But for the
time being at least, al-Qaeda has scored many points, as
a big geopolitical black hole looms toward us.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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