Loaded agenda for Myanmar-India talks
By Nehginpao Kipgen
India, in attempts to expand engagements with its neighbors, has in recent
months hosted Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Sri Lankan President Mahinda
Rajapaksa, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, Maldives President
Mohamed Nasheed and some Nepalese leaders.
This month, New Delhi will extend a red carpet reception to the leader of
Myanmar's junta, Senior General Than Shwe, who will be in India from July 25 to
29, his second visit in six years.
Than Shwe last visited India, on similar dates and for the same number of days,
from October 25 to 29 in 2004. It was at that time
the first visit by a Myanmar head of state to India for 25 years. During that
visit, three agreements were signed: cooperation in the field of
non-traditional security issues, a deal for the Tamanthi hydro-electric
project, and a cultural exchange program for the years 2004-2006.
The Indian government also extended a line of credit of US$7 million for two
telecommunications projects and a grant of $3 million for the implementation of
information technology projects. In return, the Myanmar delegation assured New
Delhi that Indian insurgents operating on the countries' shared border would
not be allowed to use Myanmar's soil to plot attacks against India. However,
groups of insurgents from India's northeast still roam freely inside Myanmar.
A host of issues are expected to be discussed during the upcoming visit -
ranging from the insurgency to cooperation on economic development,
pharmaceutical projects and trading. Bilateral agreements are also expected to
be signed.
Tackling insurgency problems, keeping China's influence in the region in check
and expanding its markets remain India's priorities. Both New Delhi and
Naypyidaw, the Myanmar capital, would like to see India's investments and
business activities strengthened in Myanmar.
Though it is unlikely to appear in the official agenda, Than Shwe will expect
Indian leaders to recognize, if not endorse, the upcoming general election in
Myanmar. Such recognition would boost the junta's quest for international
legitimacy for the vote, expected in November.
India, being the largest democracy on Earth, is a politically significant
target for Than Shwe - he will try to persuade it against speaking out for
human rights and political reforms in Myanmar.
With Myanmar's controversial election laws and the absence of the party that
won the election in 1990, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, it
is likely that Western nations will limit their post-election engagement with
Myanmar, perhaps not recognizing the election result at all.
Given this likely post-election scenario, it is important for Than Shwe to have
the support of India, which has an increasingly significant role in
international politics.
India's foreign policy fundamentals have significantly changed in recent years.
Delhi openly supported the 1988 democracy uprising in Myanmar and provided
refuge to fleeing democracy activists. India also awarded its highest civilian
honor, the Jawaharlal Nehru Award, to Aung San Suu Kyi in 1993.
India still shelters thousands of Myanmar refugees, but its leaders seem to
have shied away from advocating human rights and freedom, the same principles
backed by Mahatma Gandhi and other Indian national pioneers.
History suggests that Myanmar will not remain under military dictatorship
forever. Even the military junta envisions establishing its own version of
"disciplined democracy" under a parliamentary system, though the ultimate power
will rest with the military.
But India intends to strengthen its relationship with Myanmar, which has a
population of some 55 million. New Delhi will occasionally speak out for a
peaceful democratic transition, but not to the extent of threatening ties.
India is therefore more likely to focus on business and insurgency problems
during Than Shwe's visit than on political reforms or the election in Myanmar.
Nehginpao Kipgen is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in
modern Burma (Myanmar) (1947-2004) and general secretary of the US-based Kuki
International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). He has written numerous analytical
articles on the politics of Burma and Asia that have been widely published in
five continents (Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe and North America).
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