Page 2 of 2 A titanic power struggle in Kabul
By M K Bhadrakumar
But with help from Iran (and Turkey and Russia), Karzai can hope to have the
bulk of the Northern Alliance extending support to him. Besides, Karzai has
also reached out to Hizb-i-Islami leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who is interested
in a political accommodation in the power structure in Kabul.
... but all eyes are on Islamabad ...
The "swing factor" nonetheless will be the extent of Pakistan's cooperation.
Iran and Turkey, which remain supportive of Karzai's leadership, have been
working with Pakistan to form a sort of regional
condominium that offers a regional solution to the Afghan conflict. Ultimately,
Pakistan's mind will be swayed by the extent of confidence it has in Karazi's
ability to accommodate its legitimate interests in Afghanistan.
And right in the first circle of Pakistan's interests falls Islamabad's demand
that Karzai should not stand in the way of a rollback of Indian influence in
Afghanistan.
From the available reports, Karzai used his visit to Islamabad to assure
Islamabad will have a critical role in any reconciliation with the Taliban. He
acknowledged publicly that without Pakistan's cooperation, his reconciliation
plan would not get anywhere.
Karzai also seems to have extended assurances as regards Pakistan's legitimate
strategic interests. Of note, he had a separate meeting with Kiani.
In his press conference in Islamabad on Thursday, Karzai drew a subtle
distinction between India and Pakistan in the Afghan perceptions. Karzai said,
"India is a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of
Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother. We are conjoined twins, there's no
separation."
Karzai also stressed Afghanistan's neutrality. "Afghanistan does not want any
proxy wars on its territory. It does not want a proxy war between India and
Pakistan. It does not want a proxy war between Iran and the US on Afghanistan."
However, Pakistan will still closely watch how Karzai goes about fulfilling his
assurances that its concerns on India would be addressed, while drawing
satisfaction that his tone and tenor on Wednesday and Thursday were exceedingly
positive.
The Pakistani leadership went out of the way to roll out the red carpet for
Karzai. Almost the entire cabinet turned up at the airport to receive him. A
cosmetic outcome of Karzai's visit is that the two sides have agreed to revive
the two-year-old idea of holding joint jirgas. Thus, a mini-jirga
("Jirhagai') will be held in Kabul following the April 29 assembly, and
another loya jirga in Islamabad later on with a view to narrow down the
differences between the two countries and to delineate the role of Pashtun
tribes straddling the border areas.
Quintessentially, Pakistan has put its demands vis-a-vis Karzai on the table:
Islamabad seeks the "stabilization" of Afghanistan with a minimal Indian role
and presence and expects traditional Pashtun influence in the power structure
in Kabul will be restored.
The Pakistan army has also offered to help train the Afghan army, which will be
a key instrument of power for the Afghan state. "I cannot afford to have Afghan
soldiers on my western borders trained by the Indians with an Indian mindset,"
Kiani is reported to have remarked recently.
... as it bargains with the US
Speaking to the media in Islamabad, however, Karzai left the door open on
Kiani's offer. He said, "We have discussed this offer from Pakistan where some
equipment has also been offered. We accepted this [equipment]. As far as the
training of Afghan soldiers, my minister of defense will study and we will come
back on this." He pointedly recalled that the Soviets had also "trained" the
Afghan army and "so, we are careful".
Without doubt, Islamabad will now turn towards Washington and assess what it
has to offer. There is much satisfaction in Islamabad that recent US statements
have virtually acknowledged Pakistan's drive for gaining "strategic depth" in
Afghanistan.
Almost the entire Pakistani leadership is going to Washington for consultations
in the coming weeks. Pakistani navy chief Admiral Noman Bashir reaches the US
capital on March 17, followed by Kiani and Inter-Services Intelligence chief
Shuja Pasha, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi at the end of the month, and
Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani in the second week of April. Pakistan-US
strategic dialogue is also scheduled to take place in Washington in the last
week of March at the level of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Beyond the Indian presence in Afghanistan, beyond Karzai's political future,
beyond imponderables over the loya jirga, and even beyond the fortunes
of Taliban leader Mullah Omar, Islamabad will calculate that the time has come
to assess if, how and to what extent the US is prepared to accommodate
Pakistan's aspirations as a regional power.
Specifically, Islamabad expects parity with India as regards the US strategic
partnership.
Islamabad estimates that with the endgame in progress in Afghanistan, the US
and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) bandwagon is already
preparing to roll onto the Central Asian steppes, and the great game for the
containment of Russia, China and Iran is about to commence in earnest.
The first moves on the Central Asian chessboard have been made already.
Washington won over to its side Uzbekistan, a key country in Central Asia, and
has significantly eroded Russia's traditional ties with Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan.
The US Embassy in Bishkek last week confirmed the sensational news that
Washington proposes to build up a counter-terrorism training center in Batken
in southern Kyrgyzstan, close to China's border, which ironically enough will
be in immediate proximity to a proposed Russian base.
That is to say, the US estimates that Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) is in reality much ado about nothing. At any rate, Tashkent
has succeeded in paralyzing the CSTO's proposed activities with regard to
mobilizing a rapid reaction force that would have rivalled NATO as a guarantor
of regional security.
According to the US ambassador in Bishkek, Tatiana C Gfoeller, "Brand new,
modern military equipments ... are arriving in Kyrgyzstan daily and being
distributed to Kyrgyzstan's armed forces." It seems the crack Scorpion
Battalion of the Kyrgyz military has received "extensive training from US
forces".
Close on the heels of Holbrooke's Central Asia tour last month, Central Command
chief David Petraeus paid a two-day visit to Kyrgyzstan this week. Following
the talks in Bishkek, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that "all the
main challenges and security threats to Central Asia" come from Afghanistan and
"therefore, Kyrgyzstan is interested in providing security and stability in
this country, and will continue its efforts to offer its endeavor for
rebuilding Afghanistan - along with the international community".
Pakistan will carefully factor in all these trends, which unmistakably suggest
that the Barack Obama administration has quietly expanded its AfPak brief to
include Central Asia so as to bring it in harmony with NATO's future
enlargement.
Islamabad will assess that progression of the AfPak policy will involve greater
US (and NATO) dependence on cooperation from Pakistan, which is the strategic
"beachhead" to the Central Asian hinterland.
All in all, therefore, Pakistan will take a final call on the developing
Afghanistan situation only after the series of intense consultations in
Washington. Karzai would have estimated that Pakistan is keeping its trump
cards in readiness for playing at a penultimate stage in the titanic power
struggle unfolding in the Hindu Kush. Afghanistan's future depends on the
US-Pakistan strategic nexus.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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