Page 2 of 2 Anti-terror ties bridge US-India gap
By Peter J Brown
According to Ghoshroy, the US also wants India to begin negotiations on the
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), as well as make positive statements
about the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Manmohan is on record as saying
that India's deterrent is credible, so no more tests are necessary anyway.
"India may continue to [attach] the CTBT to a timetable for complete
disarmament," said Ghoshroy. "But the US has leverage regarding trade -
especially on IT [information technology] and a nuclear deal - that could
induce India to sign the CTBT."
Another key area involves a further revising of the denial regime of the US
when it comes to the transfer of high-technology. In this regard, more measures
on the civilian side are important, including a comprehensive commercial space
launch agreement
(CSLA) in line with the positive improvements made this summer. Without the
CSLA, India cannot enter the lucrative commercial satellite market both for US
commercial satellites or third-country satellites with US components.
"On the defense/military side, there is also a strong desire to reach an
agreement on a 'Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum' so as
to ensure the secrecy of bilateral [intelligence and surveillance, or so-called
C4ISR] exchanges. This will enable access to strategically sensitive US weapons
systems," said Gupta.
C4ISR is a term used by the US military meaning: command, control,
communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Although the transfer of certain sophisticated technologies from the US to
India is easier today, "nothing is going to happen overnight. India is trying
to move away from its dependence on Russian equipment, but cost and end-use
restrictions are still major challenges in buying American," said Ghoshroy, who
added that the biggest near-term purchase for India involves procurement of 126
tactical aircraft worth US$10 billion. US defense giant Lockheed Martin is a
strong contender with its F-16s jet fighters.
"There is also accelerated collaboration in missile defense systems. India is
seeking 'seeker' technology . It presently has only RF [radio frequency]
seekers from Russia, but would like to have infrared technology for
longer-range missiles," said Ghoshroy.
India is also increasing its procurement of Israeli defense technology,
although the joint Israeli-US Arrow anti-missile system, for example, has not
yet been added to the list. Chief of Staff General Deepak Kapoor's recent
four-day visit to Israel - now India's top supplier of military hardware - was
capped off by completion of the sale of a tactical air defense system to India,
among other things.
Other items on the agenda for Manmohan's visit include climate change,
Afghanistan, and India's relations with Iran.
Just prior to his departure to Washington, Manmohan met with Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Manmohan told the Washington Post that because
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty the development of
nuclear weapons by Iran is not a viable option. In addition, according to
Manmohan, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
informed Manmohan a few weeks ago that, "he was not so sure that Iran is
definitely working towards a nuclear weapon." Earlier this month, India changed
its mind, and declared there was no possibility that India might launch an
Iranian satellite in the coming months.
"India cannot play a substantive role with Iran. Although Indian business
houses like Tata and Reliance are active in Iran, India's recent votes in the
IAEA have irked Iran," said Ghoshroy. "India has also pulled out of ... gas
pipeline negotiations under US pressure. They continue to maintain friendly
relations, but I doubt they have any real cards to play."
In East Asia, India and the US have always enjoyed good relations with Japan.
The US has encountered mixed signals lately from Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
and his new government. India is also detecting a shift in attitude in Tokyo,
as well as a degree of uncertainty. A few days prior to Obama's arrival in
Japan, Indian Defense Minister AK Antony held talks with his Japanese
counterpart, Toshimi Kitazawa, in Tokyo, the first visit to Japan by an Indian
defense minister since 2006.
According to Gupta, while any uncertainty surrounding the US-Japan alliance
"doesn't directly feed into the US-India equation", Manmohan should be quite
concerned by Hatoyama's "less than forthcoming attitude". It is expected that
Hatoyama will travel to India as early as next month.
"[Previous Japanese leaders] were of a remarkably pro-Indian orientation.
Shinzo Abe was extended the 'values based' alliance to include India within his
notion of a 'broader Asia'. The Japan-India joint statement on defense
cooperation was signed during Taro Aso's premiership," said Gupta. "By this
high standard, the Hatoyama folk have been something of a let-down."
The US and India may see differently when it comes to China and Pakistan, but
they have mutually beneficial outcomes - and basically share the same vision -
for countries including Afghanistan, Myanmar and for the Tibet Autonomous
Region. Africa is on that roster, too. As for efforts to secure India a
permanent seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC) in particular, little progress
is expected during Manmohan's visit.
"I do not expect the US will announce support for India to become a member of
the UN Security Council but it should. It is long overdue," said Nicholas
Burns, professor of the practice of diplomacy and international politics at
Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He
has been a strong supporter of the need for a larger and more inclusive UNSC.
Burns contends that, above all else, the Obama administration has to
demonstrate clearly "that India's rise to power is in the strategic interest of
the US".
"Due to the number of short-term foreign policy crises confronting the US, such
as Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Iran and North Korea nuclear challenges, for
example, the administration has not given much public emphasis to US-India
relations," said Burns. "This week's state visit gives them the opportunity to
do so. Obama needs to reverse the impression that he cares more about China
than India. He needs to articulate a strong and positive vision for the future
of US-India ties as his two predecessors did so well."
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine
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