Congress faces test in Andhra Pradesh
By Neeta Lal
NEW DELHI - After the tragic death of Andhra Pradesh chief minister Y S
Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) in a helicopter crash on September 2, India's ruling
Congress party is scrambling to choose a successor in the key state. Finance
Minister K Rosaiah has stepped in as a caretaker, but this is only a stop-gap
arrangement until the party is able to choose someone to step into YSR's shoes.
This will be no easy task. YSR's larger-than-life persona - calibrated over a
four-decade career - appealed to the state's rich and poor, creating an
enviable votebank for the Congress party. In May's national election, YSR not
only brought Congress to power in the state, but also delivered all 33 local
members seats in the
Lok Sabha (Lower House). This made Andhra Pradesh the largest contributor to
the Congress party's overall tally of 206 seats.
The are growing calls for Reddy's 36-year-old son, Jaganmohan, a wealthy
businessman, to take over his father's chief minister post. However, "Jagan" as
Reddy's son is known, has only been in politics since May, when he won in the
Kadappa constituency, a parliamentary seat that was represented by his father
for four terms. He has been routinely accused by political and business rivals
of corruption involving his 14 companies. In 2005, he was accused of
orchestrating the murder of a political rival until an Indian Central Bureau of
Investigation enquiry exonerated him.
Now a new controversy is brewing over Jagan's Telugu-language TV channel,
Sakshi. Within hours of YSR's death, Sakshi began to run a new ticker saying
grief-stricken people in the state were committing suicide. Since then, local
media has found that many of these deaths were actually unrelated and of
natural causes. The relatives of the deceased allegedly said they had been paid
an average of Rs 5,000 (about $100) by local Congress leaders to pretend their
family had killed themselves over YSR.
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi cannot afford to
ignore the growing calls for Jagan to take his father's post, given Reddy's
political clout. Jagan's loyalists feel that he alone can carry forward his
father's political legacy and do justice to the multifarious welfare projects
he initiated. The calls for Jagan to step into his father's post can be traced
to the India's political tradition of sons, daughters, spouses and relatives
inheriting powerful political positions. This tradition accentuates Indian
voters' reluctance to transcend clan and kinship networks that have been
commanding fealty for generations in the country.
Endorsing Jagan's candidature with vigor is his father's former aide and
confidant KVP Ramchandra Rao, who recently met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in
New Delhi along with a sizeable number of legislative assembly and parliament
members that back Jagan for the post. More than 40% of Congress' 156
legislative assembly members owe their party tickets to YSR, and Jagan's
position looks strong.
Despite the loyalty that the Reddy family commands, Sonia is unlikely to let
emotional blackmail from the YSR camp get in the way of business. She is taking
her time to announce YSR's heir and has asked Jagan's supporters to tone down
their pitch. However, the campaign is relentless with Jagan's Telugu TV channel
- which also beamed a 24-hour telecast of YSR's funeral - ratcheting up the
emotional pitch for making YSR's son his heir.
Given this complex backdrop, if the Congress bypasses Jagan's candidature, or
decides to keep Rosaiah in the chair longer, it might annoy the YSR camp.
Congress is treading carefully.
In the meantime, with a leadership crisis in the state looming large,
opposition parties are waiting to leverage this opportunity. This is especially
true of YSR's opponent Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president Chadrababu Naidu, who
YSR trounced in the 2004 state elections.
Another beneficiary of the current political vacuum could be the Telangana
Rashtriya Samithi (TRS) who found a stiff opponent in YSR to their demand for a
separate Telangana state. With YSR gone, TRS will most likely try to cozy up to
Sonia to push the demand for Telangana afresh.
Ironically, caretaker CM Rosaiah is also displaying signs of latent ambition.
He is trying to consolidate his own position in the government by cultivating
the media. He recently invited senior editors for an official lunch to
reinforce his intention to carry forward YSR's welfare schemes and programs and
win people's approval.
Given this turn of events, the Congress faces a piquant situation in the
southern state - whatever its final decision, it will have to choose between
organizational coherence or claims to power-based on dynastic politics. The
options are limited: either KVP Rao himself helms the state or finds a suitable
candidate from the Reddy community who is strong enough. This arrangement would
also keep the seat warm for Jagan as he gains experience.
The ball is clearly in the Congress' court now. And the performance of who it
chooses as YSR's political successor may well determine its own future
political trajectory in Andhra Pradesh.
Neeta Lal is a widely published writer/commentator who contributes to
many reputed national and international print and Internet publications.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
