MAZAR-E-SHARIF - A key alliance supporting Afghan President Hamid Karzai's
re-election appears to be coming unglued with just 10 days to go before the
August 20 polls.
Junbish-e-Milli, the party and support base of Karzai ally General Abdul Rashid
Dostum, has split, with a large and powerful arm campaigning openly for the
president's main rival, Abdullah Abdullah.
When Karzai entered into the alliance with ethnic Uzbek strongman Dostum in
late May, many saw it as a coup for both sides.
Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, at a stroke cemented his own position
in the northern provinces, where Dostum holds sway, and undercut Abdullah, who
was also courting the non-Pashtun electorate in the north.
Dostum has effectively been in exile in Turkey since last year, but it had been
assumed in Afghanistan that he would come home with a good chance of a role in
any new Karzai administration.
The split throws into question Dostum's plans for a speedy return and Karzai's
hoped-for secure first-round victory.
Just days ago, a major Abdullah rally in Maimana, the capital of the northern
province of Faryab, featured prominent Junbish leaders. Their support
strengthens what has already become a surprisingly robust challenge to Karzai's
seemingly unassailable re-election bid.
The split within Junbish dates from late July, when several of the party's key
figures abandoned the president.
"Karzai has had no achievements for the people of Afghanistan in the past seven
years," said Mawlawi Khabir, who calls himself the acting head of Junbish. "So
I, along with other key figures of the party, after discussing this issue with
our supporters, announce our endorsement of ... Dr Abdullah."
Those who had tried to steer Junbish towards Karzai were "frauds" and "tools in
the hands of foreigners" added Khabir. Among them he named Sayed Noorullah,
head of Junbish, along with Massoud Ahmad Massoud, head of the party's youth
branch, and several others.
"Without talking to the rest of us, and especially without consulting with the
leader of our party, General Dostum, they announced their support for Karzai,"
Khabir told the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR). "They are
misusing Junbish-e-Milli's name, on their own initiative. They are selling our
vote and the destiny of this party."
Khabir's main ally in his rebellion is Najibullah Salimi, who founded the youth
movement of Junbish and still commands enormous power and respect within the
organization.
But Massoud, the youth leader, rejected Khabir's accusations, invoking the name
of the founder to bolster his own position.
"I am every moment in contact with the founder and father of the Junbish party,
General Dostum," he said. "And the general has asked all of his supporters not
to be deceived by these opportunists. He wants them all to work for the success
of Karzai in the upcoming elections."
Dostum himself is silent on the issue. He has been out of Afghanistan for much
of the past year, since he had a very public altercation with a former ally,
Mohammad Akbar Bai, that left Akbar Bai in hospital with internal injuries.
Dostum has been quoted as denying the charges of violence and denying that he
is in exile.
Neither side in the election dispute will confirm that Junbish-e-Milli, one of
Afghanistan's major parties, is in the process of a split or, worse,
disintegration. But Afghan watchers say that it is hardly surprising that an
organization based solely on personal interest should fall apart once the
central pillar - in this case, Dostum - was removed.
"These parties are not based on a real ideology," said Mohammad Joyenda, a
political analyst in the north. "Instead, they announce support for whoever
promises them the most."
According to Joyenda, support for Karzai came at a price: one branch of Junbish
had received a considerable sum of money from the Karzai team, he added. But
the funds had not been spread around, prompting another wing of the party to go
searching for their own cash-cow.
Massoud confirmed the broad outlines of the deal, but not the particulars.
"There were frequently deals involving money conducted during the election
campaign," he told IWPR.
Afghanistan's many parties - there are now more than 100 registered political
groups - are often based more on ethnic, linguistic or personal leanings than
on ideology or a shared vision. This makes them particularly vulnerable to
disintegration when interests or priorities shift.
But political analyst Ustad Sefuwat said that the alleged split might be no
more than a savvy hedging of bets by the Junbish leadership.
"If Karzai wins, then one team will get power," he said. "But if Abdullah
becomes president, there will still be a Junbish faction on the scene."
Karzai is still the clear favorite to win the poll, given the enormous
advantages of his incumbency. He has been working hard for re-election over the
past year or more, and many Afghans seem to be supporting him for no other
reason than they want to be on the winning side.
But former foreign minister Abdullah has made a very strong showing over the
past month, and the situation could still veer wildly.
Joyenda does not think that the split within Junbish will have a decisive
affect on the election.
"Junbish is not in the position it was five years ago," he told IWPR. "At that
time, hundreds of thousands of people, all of the Turkmen and Uzbeks, were
supporting it. But several major disagreements and splits have lessened the
trust people have in the party. People make their own decisions now. Before
they had to listen to their leaders, otherwise they and their families could be
in danger."
Rameshgar, a writer and journalist in the north, agreed that Junbish had been
weakened by many public spats and schisms over the years, as well as by a
decrease in funding.
"When the money dried up many people left," he said. "This process will
continue."
Dostum is a colorful and controversial figure within Afghanistan. He has a
reputation for fierce, if unprincipled, fighting, having changed sides several
times during Afghanistan's long decades of war. He was one of the major
government commanders under Mohammad Najibullah, the former president killed by
the Taliban in 1996, only to desert to the rebel mujahideen at the last moment.
He switched factions often during the civil war, and no commander could ever be
sure that Dostum was on his side.
He joined the central government in 2005, in the largely symbolic capacity of
chief of staff to the commander in chief.
Mohammad Jawad, a student of political science at Balkh University, told IWPR
that the split could be serious for the candidates, and possibly fatal for
Junbish itself. With insecurity and apathy threatening to dampen the turnout
among an estimated 17 million registered voters, every ballot counts.
"It is possible that Junbish is fading away," he said. "And this could have a
very big impact on the elections. If the Junbish vote is not divided, one
million votes will go to whichever candidate Junbish supports."
Ahmad Kawush is a pseudonym for an IWPR trainee in Mazar-e-Sharif.
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