Page 2 of 2 India and US build stronger ties in space
By Peter J Brown
Still, it is unlikely that US and European commercial satellites will be
launched atop ISRO rockets until well into the next decade. Among other things,
another potentially enormous political obstacle exists in the form of the
Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR).
Despite the fact that none of the 17 large commercial communications satellites
which were launched in 2008 flew aboard a US-built rocket - France-based
Arianespace accounted for almost half the payloads placed successfully in orbit
last year - one cannot rule out the possibility that USTR may intercede on
behalf of some US-based launch service providers. So, in addition to the
tension between the State and Commerce departments over who might become the
primary overseer of US satellite
exports, one must also be aware that USTR could erect an unwelcome roadblock in
the future, too.
Gupta wants to see more details related to liability, insurance, pricing and
intrusive monitoring requirements for space launches.
"[When these details] become more widely known, and very difficult political
decisions have to be taken in this regard, a more sobering understanding of
what high-technology cooperation entails will likely take hold," said Gupta.
"We are already seeing some of these issues rearing themselves in New Delhi by
way of the recently signed End-User Monitoring Agreement [EUMA] which is small
beer compared to the intrusiveness of a CSLA."
Fireworks apparently erupted in the Indian parliament after the EUMA was signed
by India and the US at the same time as the TSA. The opposition walked out
after asserting that the EUMA which attempts to address sensitive and
potentially defense-related high technology transfers in particular was placing
Indian sovereignty in jeopardy. (See,
For New Delhi, a week that wasn't, Asia Times Online, July 23)
The opposition argued, among other things, that by granting US inspectors
unprecedented authority via the EUMA verification process, that a door was
perhaps opening for other governments to possibly pursue the same intrusive
approach. Foreign Minister Krishna attempted to assure the opposition that
their concerns were off target and not supported by the facts.
Ordway views the process underway as eventually placing India in the same boat
as Russia and France (Arianespace), assuming that approval of the CSLA takes
place.
"But that will just mean that satellites exported to India will be 'normal' and
will have the same rules as satellites exported to Russia and France," said
Ordway.
Rajagopalan points out that although ISRO represents the civilian side of
Indian space research, the level of advancement has created a certain amount of
wariness, and raised potential fears of a possible shift underway at ISRO
involving its role in direct support of military space programs. And while
China has not responded to the signing of the TSA - or the EUMA - per se, any
strengthening or streamlining of relations between India and the US will not be
taken lightly.
"Beijing will maintain a strict watch on India's advancing defense/space
technological ties with the US, Israel or the European countries. As one of the
Chinese internal studies brought out, China will continue to undertake various
measures to maintain its current strategic leverage in terms of territory, P-5
membership [the United Nations Security Council], and [participation in] the
nuclear club, [while retaining] its important diplomatic advantages through its
special relationships with India's neighboring countries," said Rajagopalan.
Greater India-US cooperation in space will likely intensify the competition
between India and China over the coming years. If India's space sector suddenly
surges ahead as a result, this will do more than lightly annoy Beijing.
"[While] high-technology trade and interaction with the US has an inherent
sensitivity and strategic component built into it, it [also] signals that
Washington is keen to expand and deepen its strategic ties with India," said
Gupta. "And further, to the extent that Beijing remains under de facto
high-technology embargoes initiated by the West, [US space cooperation with
India] signals that strategic cooperation in highly sensitive sectors
continues, at minimum, to remain weighted against Chinese interests."
After all, the TSA has emerged at a time when Japan may soon be making
significant adjustments to its military space policies, such as becoming more
firmly attached to the East Asian US anti-missile network. The fact that a US
company is picking up the pace of its launch activities using a remote launch
site on an atoll in the western Pacific cannot go unnoticed either. All of this
recent activity must have been assessed carefully by Beijing. Finally, the TSA
and the atmosphere surrounding it may also bear directly upon the direction and
scope of India-Israel joint operations in space.
"[Although] it might be a bit premature to speak definitively about it, much of
recent cooperation has been in the defense and military technologies area -
both in platforms and sub-systems. And much of it has been a one-way flow, ie
from Jerusalem to New Delhi," said Gupta. "The TSA potentially opens the door
to endowing greater depth to India's high-technology sector which, in time,
could entail spillover effects in the area of cooperative Israel-India ventures
in space. To the extent that TSA also binds the US-India relationship in a
greater bond of trust, Washington might also take a more forthcoming view to
Indo-Israeli technology-sharing in more sensitive sub-system areas. This will
have beneficial implications both on the commercial and military side for
India."
Rajagopalan agrees that the TSA will further strengthen and seed India-Israel
initiatives, too.
"The two countries have been cooperating in the space sector and in 2008, ISRO
launched an Israeli spy satellite. The TSA can establish trilateral cooperation
in this arena," said Rajagopalan.
Still, Gupta points to an important domestic dimension to all of this
space-related activity in India. One possible snag lurks beneath the surface.
"[The vague sense/hope in India is that] high-technology cooperation will
inevitably and tacitly translate on the military side too, particularly on the
missile development and space side," said Gupta, who went on to emphasize a
possible misunderstanding that looms large here in terms of any ongoing
cooperation.
"Washington and the Democratic [Obama] administration are likely to be
ultra-careful this time after the experience of the late-1990s vis-a-vis China.
There is always the danger that demands for intrusiveness [stemming from] such
cooperation with India will be hard to stomach domestically in the rabble that
is New Delhi politics."
Note
1. Mike Gold's comments are his own and do not reflect that of the working
group.
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the state of Maine, USA, who
specializes in the global satellite arena.
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