Page 2 of 2 The script goes out the window
By Santwana Bhattacharya
The fact that Rahul Gandhi looks much younger than his 39 years too works to
his advantage. The million-dollar question now, of course, is whether he will
join the government or continue with his missionary-style perseverance in
trying to revive the Congress in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and
Bihar. Together, these two state contribute a large chunk - 122 seats - to the
Lower House.
What allows everyone to finally treat the slightly wet-behind-the-years Rahul
as a bona fide politician is the fact that he's tasted a bit of spectacular
success. After a gap of 25 years, the Congress, which was virtually decimated
in the northern Indian state of Uttar
Pradesh, has won 21 seats out of 80 seats.
In 2004, even when it came to government in Delhi, the Congress had just nine
out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh and it had confirmed its near-demise in what was
hitherto seen as the crucible of Indian politics. Uttar Pradesh was seen as a
lost cause - the playfield of caste-based parties, like the Samajwadi Party of
the middle-caste Yadavs, or its sworn rival, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP, of
the Dalits, the former untouchables) which not only controls its present
provincial government but even threatened to take New Delhi.
But amazingly, the nowhere-party of the Congress has come second in the Uttar
Pradesh tally, pushing the emergent BSP into third. It is, perhaps, the most
stunning event of this election. More so as BSP leader Mayaati, the chief
minister of Uttar Pradesh, was tipped to get the lion's share of the votes in
Uttar Pradesh and was even in the running for the prime minister's post on a
left-led Third Front backing - the elite's biggest nightmare.
Though in post-script it seems all so lucid, no one was really expecting such a
turnaround for the Congress. In fact, the general feedback was so contrary to
the final results that the media were readying for a long summer of reporting
the hundred little bargains that would prop up the next government, even decide
who was heading it.
In fact, when a senior Congress leader told this writer two days before the
results that Manmohan Singh could be sworn in as the next prime minister, it
seemed part of a politician's natural optimism and no more. And it probably was
no more than that!
However, even this leader gave me a figure that was 35 seats less than what the
Congress finally pulled off. Such was the air of uncertainty that Prithviraj
Chavan, the Congress Party's general secretary, said Manmohan Singh woke up a
worried man on the day of the counting, anticipating a hung house that would
need tedious negotiations with small regional parties.
He was also a bit nervous that a fractured mandate - which was still expected
to allow the Congress to form a complicated coalition government - would pose a
handicap for effective decision-making. "He was especially concerned that it
would be difficult for a minority government to tide over the economic crisis
effectively," said Chavan. Not to mention the crisis in the neighborhood.
The Indian voter, it seems, anticipated the concern and delivered a verdict
that poured cold water on the plans of the regional parties. There was little
scope left for driving hard bargains in exchange of support to a minority
government, as anticipated.
The results in the end were way beyond the calculations of Congress bosses: the
voters elected 205 of their party candidates. With their pre-poll UPA allies
contributing 57 more, they are getting ready to be sworn in by the president of
India any time before June 2. They do need another 11 more to touch the
majority mark of 272.
The momentum of victory is all-consuming. Contrary to what you might have
expected, they have a bouquet of members of parliament who are keen to help
them touch the magic number - 22 members from the Samajwadi Party, four of
Janata Dal (secular) from the southwestern state of Karnataka who were earlier
part of the left-led Third Front and six of nine independents.
What also helped the Congress hold onto power was the ability of one of their
allies - in the southern state of Tamil Nadu - to hold onto its base. Reaping
the benefits of populist schemes, such as one kilogram of rice for one rupee
and free color TVs for the poor - the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam managed to
retain 18 of the total 39 seats in the state. Its rival, the All India Anna
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and its leader J Jayalalitha, being wooed by all
sides until a day before the results, ended up in a lonely spot. Instead of the
clean sweep as predicted, she won a meagre 15 seats.
The Congress also did remarkably well in Andhra Pradesh, a state in
south-central India where it was in power. Proving every single political
analyst, commentator and campaign-trail journalist wrong, the Congress managed
to win a majority of seats in both parliament and elections to the state
legislature that happened simultaneously. With Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh
(two states where they were expected to do badly) in their bag and a unexpected
bonanza in Uttar Pradesh, there was no looking back for the Congress.
The other most startling result of elections 2009 has been the complete rout of
the left parties in West Bengal. The biggest among them, the Communist Party of
India (Marxist), has put up its worst-ever performance. In its citadel in the
eastern state of West Bengal, where they have been winning all elections for 32
years, they have been reduced to nine parliamentary seats.
Though these results do not directly affect the left front government in the
state, it has doubtless been a moral defeat for the left. Its hasty
industrialization policy, for which it tried to forcefully acquire land from
farmers, seems to have led to their downfall.
The results of West Bengal have been a mini-revenge for the Congress. The left
parties withdrew support from the Manmohan Singh government over the India-US
nuclear deal in 2008, reducing it to a minority government. Now, the Congress
alliance with a regional splinter party in Bengal (the Trinamool Congress),
resulted in the left's rout. Add to this a sweep in the southernmost state of
Kerala - another old left stronghold which had seen the first elected communist
government in the whole world in 1957.
The BJP, which has launched a high-profile campaign projecting Advani as the
prime ministerial candidate, got only 116 seats. Whether this mandate leads to
the sort of hubris that engendered anti-Congressism as a permanent part of
Indian politics in the past few decades is the big question.
Santwana Bhattacharya is a New Delhi-based journalist who writes on
politics, parliament and elections. She is currently working on a book on
electoral reforms and the emergence of regional parties in India.
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