KATHMANDU - This March 10, Nepal proved itself unwilling to allow a repeat of
the mass Tibetan demonstrations that were held here from March to September
2008. Although the energy and numbers of last year's demonstrations surrounding
the anniversary of the failed Tibetan uprising and Dalai Lama's flight into
exile were not present this year, Nepalese riot police still took forcible
measures to prevent a group of approximately 200 Tibetan demonstrators leaving
the Boudha district of Kathmandu. A British activist named Daisy Karen Wood who
attempted to dodge police and enter the Chinese Embassy carrying balloons and a
Tibetan flag was quickly arrested.
Nepal's desire to quickly suppress events that would embarrass China, its
massive northern neighbor, comes as no surprise. Ties
between the two countries have been increasing in recent months. Nepalese
Premier Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda plans to travel to Beijing in mid-April or
early May and sign what is being called the "Comprehensive Treaty" which will
replace the 1960 "Peace and Friendship Treaty" between the two countries. The
signing of the treaty will be followed by China donating US$16.4 million in
economic aid and becoming Nepal's chief international backer.
Historically, relations between Nepal and China have been relatively good. For
centuries Nepal sent tribute bearing missions to China and acknowledged its
superior regional force. The tension that did exist originated out of the
perceived threat from India and contention over Tibet, which lies just 114
kilometers from Kathmandu.
Following China's refusal to give military assistance to Nepal during the
Anglo-Nepalese war of 1814-1816, Nepal invaded Tibet in 1854. China quickly
intervened and the Treaty of Thapathali was signed between the two countries in
1856. Nepal recognized China's supremacy in the region and agreed to provide
assistance if Tibet was ever invaded by a foreign force.
When an armed British mission arrived in Tibet from India in 1905, however,
Nepal did not intervene. Having come under the influence of British India after
its loss in the Anglo-Nepalese war, Nepal went as far as to tell China that it
would assist the Tibetans if they ever declared independence, provided it was
within British interests. When the Tibetans used the chaos of the 1911
Revolution to expel the Chinese, Nepal broke ties with China altogether.
Relations were re-established in 1955 when the Chinese began sending soldiers
into Tibet. With the British gone from India, Nepal recognized Tibet as a
sovereign part of Chinese territory and in 1960, a year after Tibet's failed
uprising and the Dalai Lama's flight into exile, the two countries signed the
Treaty of Peace and Friendship, cementing strong ties that continue today.
Now the new "Comprehensive Treaty" will bring the two countries even closer.
The treaty puts into place agreements that China will not attack Nepal and will
respect its sovereignty, while Nepal will solidify its acceptance of the "One
China" policy. Under the policy Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are stated as
indisputable parts of Chinese territory, and Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese
activities on its soil.
Nepal proved its willingness to fulfill such promises in the days surrounding
the 50th anniversary of the March 10, 1959, Tibetan Uprising. The day after a
visit by Chinese assistant foreign minister Hu Zhengyue, who arrived in Nepal
last month leading a 14-member delegation, 27 Tibetans monks were arrested in
Kathmandu. Eighteen were released and nine turned over to the United Nations
and deported to India. The streets around the two Chinese embassies in
Kathmandu were also closed off, declared "protest-free zones", and staffed with
police who had orders to arrest anyone demonstrating nearby. Additional arrests
of Tibetan activists were carried out and demonstrators were quickly
confronted.
China welcomes these closer relations, with the additional support for its "One
China" policy and assistance in controlling the more than 20,000 Tibetan
refugees living in Nepal. The refugees, if they ever gave up the aging Dalai
Lama's method of peaceful negotiation, could use Nepal's difficulty to control
its northern border to launch attacks on Chinese forces in Tibet - something
which Khampa fighters did with short-lived US Central Intelligence Agency
support in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
China views the establishing of closer relations with Nepal as an important
step in its competition with India for regional influence. "China now seems to
view Nepal as a vital bridge toward South Asia as part of strategy of
encircling India," said Nepal expert Sanjay Upadya.
However, Nepal's interest in expanding relations with China is more
complicated. The country has long sought to balance the interests of India and
China, the two regional powers it lies between. Since the signing of the
Indo-Nepalese Treaty of 1950, India has come to heavily dominate Nepalese
politics. While the treaty acknowledges Nepal's sovereignty, clauses in the
agreement give India a greater amount of control over Nepal than the Maoist
government would prefer.
It is the overbearing influence of India that has pushed Nepal's Maoist
government decisively towards China. The shift has been so strong that Premier
Prachanda went as far as to break the long-standing tradition of Nepalese heads
of state making their first foreign trip to India, instead visiting China,
ostensibly to attend the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in
Beijing.
The move toward China does not necessarily mean that Nepal is breaking ties
with India - the government rather seeks to decrease Indian influence. As
Nepalese journalist Narendra Prasad Upadhyaana said, "It is not that China is
ideal. It is only to neutralize India. Historically, socially, and culturally
Nepal is closer to India. On a political level however the Maoist government
wants to avoid being controlled by India as much as possible."
This new partnership with China comes at a time of great necessity for Nepal.
The country is facing growing insecurity which many experts in Kathmandu
believe could escalate into a crisis within the next year.
With the decade-long civil war resulting in the overthrow of the monarchy,
Nepal is facing the challenges of a newly democratic nation that has
innumerable political groups and organizations vying for a tiny amount of
resources amid growing insecurity.
The country's police and army have become polarized, with different groups
supporting the Maoists, opposition forces, and even the return of the monarchy.
A number of journalists have been attacked in the past six months. Amid
simmering discontent within the Maoist Army, which refuses to integrate with
the regular army and continues to recruit soldiers, the expected flood of
returning immigrants from jobs in the Middle East and Malaysia due to the
global financial crisis makes Nepal's immediate future seem grim.
Perhaps the most dangerous threat to the country's stability, however, is the
deteriorating situation in the southern Terai region. Members of the Tharu
indigenous group recently declared a 14-day strike, shut down roads, and
engaged in near daily clashes with police that left four people dead. The
Tharus were demanding to be recognized as distinct from the Madhesis, the
ethnic group that most indigenous people from the Terai are lumped into.
Government negotiation ended the strike only after the situation had become so
tense that police were ordered to escort petrol trucks through checkpoints and
the price of fruit and vegetables in some Kathmandu markets had nearly doubled.
Though the strike has ended, the Tarai will continue to be an issue for Nepal.
The indigenous groups demand that a new constitution divide the country into
ethnically based autonomous states, something that could spell disaster as many
of the ethnic groups in Nepal do not even acknowledge the others' right to
exist.
The idea of "ethnic federalism" will not be given up easily though. According
to Dr Om Gurung, an indigenous rights leader in Kathmandu, the establishment of
ethnically based autonomous federal states was a key promise of the Maoists
during the civil war. Recently, however, the government has begun backing away
from the promise, and most experts believe that such a system would set the
stage for future conflict. Indigenous leaders are adamant, however, that
Nepal's diverse nature requires such a system.
Dangerously, after the Maoist victory in the civil war and their subsequent
international recognition, organizations in Nepal realized that agitation and
violence does indeed work as a means of achieving political goals. With 70
identified armed groups operating across Nepal, most the wings of political
organizations, the government and safety of the people are severely threatened.
How the indigenous groups will choose to assert themselves if their demands for
autonomous states are not met is still unknown.
Unless the government manages to control this growing unrest, the Maoist
revolution may in fact prove to have just been the catalyst for a longer
struggle for territory, resources, and representation in Nepal that the country
will have to face as it struggles over the course of the next year to write a
new constitution and make the difficult transition from a country at war to a
country at peace.
This is a desire that can be assisted by a closer relationship with China. Over
the past years China has proven itself willing to give large amounts of
no-strings-attached cash and support for infrastructure building to countries
that support its "One China" policy and allow it to expand its growing global
influence. This is in contrast with most Western countries which demand that
aid goes to specific projects and require greater oversight regarding where the
funds end up. While the lack of transparency in Nepal means that much of the
aid will be lost due to corruption, there is enough being offered that some
effect will be felt by the population.
Along with the $16.4 million donation, after the signing of the "Comprehensive
Treaty" China will add an additional 770 kilometers to the Kathmandu-Khasa
highway in Tibet, effectively linking Nepal with China's massive internal
railway system. Additional roads connecting Tibet and Nepal will be built and
Chinese products are increasingly replacing Indian products, something that
most Nepalese appreciate because of the lower cost. "China's products are sound
to our pockets," said Nepalese journalist Narendra Prasad Upadhyaana.
The additional access to China is also expected to stimulate economic growth in
Tibet, something that the Chinese government considers key to making the
Tibetans drop their demands for autonomy. Larger groups of tourists coming from
Nepal, and Tibetan salt being sold to Nepal, certainly may lessen some of the
Tibetans' anger towards China, but it will not quite be the salve that the
Chinese government wants it to be. As one Tibetan activist in Kathmandu said,
"China does not have human rights. Nepal is following that. They are bending
over for China and letting the Chinese control the police and treat the
Tibetans here like animals."
The closer relationship with China is also not being viewed favorably by Delhi.
Earlier this month several Nepalese opposition politicians left for India,
claiming the trip was for health reasons. Their visit coincides with the
presence of Nepal's disposed King Gyanendra, who has been in India since last
month for a wedding.
Although the Indian government allowed the Maoists to overthrow the monarchy,
the new preference for China is making India reconsider its support. This is
something that the Maoists must have expected. They are, however, reacting
nervously to the opposition visit to India. "A new pact is being signed in New
Delhi against the Maoist government," said the Janadisha newspaper, a
mouthpiece for the Maoist Party.
"Delhi is encircling the Maoists," said Nepalese journalist Narendra Prasad
Upadhyaana. "India brought them to power and now suddenly they have gone to the
Chinese. And India and China still do not have cordial relations."
Justin Vela is a freelance journalist currently in Nepal.
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