Page 2 of 2 Two wars heat up India's elections By Santwana Bhattacharya
national security advisor, Mahmud Ali Durrani, for letting the cat out of the
bag.) But two months down from November's Mumbai attack, the Congress cannot
afford to seem complacent. It must be seen to be orchestrating international
opinion - in such a manner as to keep the pressure on Pakistan - if it wants
the people to bring it back to power.
Until now, the twin strategy of keeping Pakistan on tenterhooks and
international opinion on its side has paid off. And the Congress is making it a
prime exhibit in its election campaign. So, while Mukherjee talks tough to the
outside world, Congress
president Sonia Gandhi strikes a strident pose in the political arena.
Last Sunday, at her party's first major election rally, she sounded a warning
to Pakistan to the effect that "India's restraint should not be misread as a
sign weakness". And then again, "Nobody should doubt one thing, we will
surmount the situation. We will give a befitting reply to forces which are
promoting terror from across the border." History was invoked in the same
breath - Sonia spoke of her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi, as the inspiration.
Thus, effectively reviving memories of the triumphant 1971 war with Pakistan
that led to the creation of Bangladesh, and creating a link to the government's
present aspect of toughness.
All this belligerence has filled a vital gap in the Congress portfolio. Sensing
the possibility of turning around the situation, it is now going for the
jugular. Fittingly then, harsh words are not reserved merely for Pakistan. The
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition party that has traditionally
prided itself for being tough on terror, is not being spared either.
Sonia thundered at the same rally, "[A party] which tries to divide society on
grounds of religion, which repeatedly tried to mislead people in the name of
Lord Ram, cannot be an effective weapon against terror." Now, the BJP had been
harping on bringing back a defunct terror legislation that was abolished by the
UPA because it erred on the side of being "draconian", but all the present
anti-Pakistan rhetoric has helped blunt the BJP's edge. The Congress is now
managing the unthinkable - that is, entirely appropriate the terrorism plank
from the BJP and make it part of a troika of planks - social welfare and
economic stability combine well with security, after all.
For the bulk of the UPA's five-year tenure, the Congress had been fumbling on
how exactly to balance its response to terrorism - and growing talk that terror
was no longer an import from Pakistan but an Indian cottage industry - with its
concerns for its own Muslim support base. But the BJP was always prone to an
excessive approach - in state elections in Delhi-Rajasthan that overlapped with
the Mumbai siege, it brought out a full-page ad with blood splattered over a
full page. The BJP lost in both states, the tactic had clearly boomeranged, and
that's where the Congress saw its first opening.
Then Chidambaram, quickly drafted in a replacement home minister, apologized
for having failed to protect innocent Mumbai citizens. That did the trick,
calming down public anger, and thereafter, in a strategy devised by Mukherjee
and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Congress moved in to close all doors on
the BJP. And sensing the BJP's dilemma, Sonia also went full swing into an
aggressive pitch against Pakistan.
As an opposition party, the BJP is in a fix. With senior al-Qaeda leader
Mustafa Abu al-Yazid - who claimed responsibility for Benazir Bhutto's
assassination in December 2007 and who seems to have been resurrected from
death - warning that India would be rent apart if it harms Pakistan, it makes
the situation complicated. For the right-wing party which sustains itself on
ultra-nationalism, to go for an out-and-out attack on the government when the
country is battling outside forces is understandably tricky. Even the BJP's
super-confident mascot, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, had to beat a
hasty retreat after Pakistan used his line about "the local links of the Mumbai
attack" to its diplomatic advantage.
The BJP realizes that a direct offensive against Pakistan by the present Indian
government would completely overshadow its poll prospects. Its apprehensions
were reflected in party chief Rajnath Singh's address to a recent party
conclave. Criticizing Sonia Gandhi's advocacy of "direct action'' against
Pakistan, he managed to say, "War should not be abused as a tool to fulfill
political objectives" - a very surprising statement for a BJP leader. At the
same time, a party spokesman was hard put to explain whether the BJP would
oppose any war with Pakistan if the present government resorted to it as the
strongest possible action. He tried to hide behind a statement the BJP's prime
ministerial hopeful, L K Advani, had made in parliament to the effect that the
BJP would stand with the government in any steps it took against terrorism.
The BJP is not, however, on the back foot on the Sri Lanka issue. Away from
media focus, the firebrand Tamil leader, Vaiko, who goes by one name, landed in
Delhi with about 4,000 protesters in tow last weekend. At Delhi's assigned
protest zone, Jantar Mantar, he railed against the Congress-led government's
refusal to force Colombo's hand in any way. While New Delhi and its media corps
obsesses over Islamabad, Vaiko said in a characteristic harangue that thousands
of innocent Tamils are being robbed of their lives and livelihoods. There must
be something to what he said because his tirade went curiously under-reported.
Vaiko's small political outfit, the MDMK, was once part of the UPA's great
coalition but is now hobnobbing with the chief opposition party in Tamil Nadu
and the left parties. What might be worrying for the left and also for the
Congress, though, is the fact that BJP leader Advani joined Vaiko at the rally.
Another left ally, the Telugu Desam Party, also rallied behind Vaiko.
In short, the political climate down south is boiling hot and all the molecules
are in furious motion. Will the Sri Lanka crisis change the political equations
in Delhi? If that happens, the BJP-led coalition would stand a better chance of
reclaiming the Delhi throne for the next five years.
Santwana Bhattacharya is a New Delhi-based journalist who writes on
politics, parliament and elections. She currently working on a book on
electoral reforms and the emergence of regional parties in India.
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