Page 2 of 2 ON THE MILITANT TRAIL, Part 1 A battle before a battle
Pakistan and then signed a formal document in September the same year. In early
2007, they broke the ceasefire, but at the same time faced a serious leadership
crisis.
However, the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) operation in July 2007 in which the
radical mosque in Islamabad was stormed by security forces helped the Pakistani
Taliban to regroup under the umbrella of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Taliban. The
organization initially went through many difficulties due to differences over
leadership, but ultimately they agreed on Baitullah Mehsud as head.
In December 2007, former premier Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by al-Qaeda,
and Osama bin Laden installed an amir-e-khuruj (leader for revolt) in
Pakistan, and since then the
militancy has gone from strength to strength.
Against this backdrop, three significant and interlinked developments occurred:
Pakistan lost a significant amount of territory in NWFP to militants.
Al-Qaeda and Pakistani militants devised a scheme in late 2008 to cut off
NATO's supply lines passing through Pakistan. The move has been highly
successful.
The Taliban are gaining ground in Afghanistan. According to an influential
British think-tank, the Senlis Council - now renamed the International Council
on Security and Development - in 2007, 54% of Afghanistan was under the control
of the Taliban. In 2008, the same think-tank said that 72% was controlled by
the Taliban.
In the past few months, the US has stepped up Predator drone attacks on
specific targets inside Pakistan. While these have aided the militant cause in
that at times civilians have been killed, several key militant leaders have
also died.
A meeting with al-Qaeda
I received a call on my cell phone from a number I did not recognize, but the
voice was familiar.
"It is not possible to visit you at your guest house. You have to move away
from the area," the man said, and then mentioned a famous landmark in the city
where I had met the same person last year. I will call him Mohammad.
I was delayed leaving the guest house and had to walk about 20 minutes to the
meeting place. As I approached, Mohammad crossed the road and joined me. I
followed him until we reached a waiting motorbike and rider at a crowded bus
stop.
Mohammad sat behind the driver and I squeezed on behind him. We must have been
a sight. The front two had very long beards and robes, looking like prayer
leaders, while I was wearing modern trousers and a coat. We drove for 10
minutes before reaching a big park.
"You almost put us in serious difficulties," Mohammad chided me as soon as we
got off the motorbike.
"How?" I asked, surprised.
"There is an extraordinary high alert in and around the University Road area.
In the past month, dozens of our fellows have been arrested in the area. Of
course, we keep an eye on our targets, which are in abundance in this part of
Peshawar, and intelligence and police keep an eye on us. I was waiting for you
for about 40 minutes, it is just not advisable for us to stay around for so
long," Mohammad explained.
"After losing ground all over, the security forces are preparing for decisive
action against us. Everybody is at risk, we, our families ... I change my cell
numbers on an almost daily basis, so next time you will not be able to trace
me. I have changed my residence twice in the past two months and my residence
is not known to anybody. At this moment, the security forces are calling the
shots [in the city], but soon we will retaliate."
I questioned Mohammad on a reported split among militants which has caused
Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah to remain quiet. Abdul Wali, alias Omar
Khalid, Moulvi Faqir and others who were previously with Baitullah, who is ill,
have now parted with him. The drone attacks have wiped out sizeable numbers of
al-Qaeda members, although the word is the Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman
al-Zawahiri are alive.
"The news of a split is true, but it will never benefit the government," said
Mohammad. "All it has done is weaken Baitullah's command. Believe you me, it
will further sharpen the armed opposition against the government. The militant
groups will carry out attacks with multiple strategies. Abdul Wali is still
fighting against the government." (Abdul Wali had earlier been reported killed
in Mohmand Agency in a military strike.)
"Al-Qaeda members have melted into various like-minded groups. Recently, Qari
Ziaur Rahman led a group comprising 600, mostly Afghans and al-Qaeda members,
to ransack a Pakistani security post in Mohmand Agency," Mohammad said.
"Tomorrow, when you travel to the Swat Valley, you will find that except for a
few towns like Mardan, Sawabi and Charsada, all the towns are now under the
Taliban. In places like Mengora and Swat, the security forces are not the ones
who enforce the curfew, but the Taliban. The Taliban move freely on the streets
and the security forces hide inside their sanctuaries," Mohammad said.
The Taliban's and al-Qaeda's influence is indeed multi-faceted, like their
groupings. There are places like Swat and the tribal areas where the Taliban's
control is a fact of life and they operate in broad daylight. In other places
like Peshawar they are present, but this can only be felt, not seen.
Malakand Agency was on my itinerary, and I had been told that here there is not
a single Taliban on the ground, but through fear they impose their writ.
NEXT: Faceless rule
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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